Using bioenergetics models to predict stable isotope ratios in fishes

To describe temporal dynamics of stable isotope ratios in fishes, we developed a bioenergetics-based model that links isotope ratios to growth, as influenced by fish size, temperature, diet, and prey quality. The model includes error terms for isotope ratios, diet proportions, and fractionation. The model accurately predicted temporal δ15N dynamics of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in a diet-switch experiment but was less successful for δ13C, possibly because of variable fractionation. The model was then used in three heuristic applications. In a diet-validation scenario, a model derived from limited knowledge of rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) diet reasonably estimated δ13C and δ15N compared with a null model but inaccurately estimated prey consumption. In a scenario where adult lake trout briefly cannibalized stocked lake trout fingerlings, the detectability of a cannibalism-induced δ15N increase depended on predator size, duration of cannibalism, and sample size. In a scenario where seasonal isotopic variability occurred at the base of a food web, variation propagated to higher trophic levels depended on consumer size and diet. Our approach is most valuable when used to examine multiple diet combinations that produce observed stable isotope ratios; one can then identify the most reasonable diets through field tests or other observations.