scholarly journals Demand for provisioning ecosystem services as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maitane Erdozain ◽  
Erika C. Freeman ◽  
Camille Ouellet Dallaire ◽  
Sonja Teichert ◽  
Harry W. Nelson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Wood Products ◽  
Boreal Zone ◽  
Drivers Of Change ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Provisioning Ecosystem Services ◽  
The Future

The Canadian boreal zone provides extractive goods and services (provisioning ecosystem services (PrES)) to domestic and global markets and makes a significant contribution to the Canadian economy. The intensity and location of these extractive activities, however, may positively or negatively affect the availability of other benefits that the Canadian and global society receive from the boreal. Where PrES compete, managing these activities along with their impacts to boreal ecosystems becomes a balancing act between the need for resource extraction and the continued availability of the other benefits from ecosystems. Management measures and policies are more likely to succeed if they are designed with foresight, which means accounting for how demand, a key driver of change in the boreal, may change in the future. To help this process, we present three divergent, yet plausible future scenarios based on the analysis of: (i) the capacity of the boreal to provide wood products, fossil fuels, metals and minerals, and hydropower and other renewables; (ii) past trends (1985–2015) and key events in the demand for these PrES; (iii) the interaction of demand for PrES with other drivers of change to the boreal zone; and (iv) the synergies and trade-offs between PrES. We find that historically and currently the capacity of the boreal to provide these PrES exceeds the amount currently supplied. However, the capacity of different PrES and location of extractive activities are spatially dispersed creating a spatial and temporal patchwork of associated risks to local ecosystem integrity and the supply of non-PrES. In addition, these scenarios suggest that the future of boreal PrES is very uncertain and highly dependent on how other drivers of change (namely governance and geopolitics, societal values and climate change) play out in the future. Given the spatial complexity, we find that the cumulative effect of these drivers (e.g., climate change) will determine what paths unfold for different areas of the boreal, and we conclude that careful consideration and planning must be given to ensure that the balance between PrES and non-PrES is maintained.

scholarly journals Demand for nonprovisioning ecosystem services as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 106-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl A. Lamothe ◽  
Haibin Dong ◽  
Oscar E. Senar ◽  
Sonja Teichert ◽  
Irena F. Creed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Indigenous Peoples ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Boreal Zone ◽  
Drivers Of Change ◽  
Natural Resource Extraction ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Ecosystem Condition ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Natural Resource Development

The Canadian boreal zone provides ecosystem services from local to global scales. Either directly or indirectly, demands for these services have and will continue to serve as drivers of change in the region. Here we present evidence for past, present, and potential future demand for maintaining nonprovisioning ecosystem services (NPrES), defined as indirect and nonmarketable services obtained from ecosystems as a driver of change in the boreal zone. Our evidence of demand stems from federal and provincial policies, actions by Indigenous peoples, and nongovernmental initiatives that aim to maintain the sustainability of natural resource extraction and ecosystem condition of the boreal. Presently, the demand for NPrES influences decisions related to natural resource development (e.g., forestry) that in turn impacts the condition of the boreal zone. Informed by the present conditions and past trends, three future scenarios to the year 2050 are presented that contrast in their trajectory—status quo, increased demand for NPrES, and decreased demand for NPrES. We also summarize the interactions among other drivers of change in the boreal and the synergies and trade-offs among the different types of demand for NPrES. Ultimately, sustainability of the boreal zone and the ecosystem services it provides will result from a complex suite of interacting drivers of change, where the balance of demands for provisioning and NPrES will continue to influence regional conditions.

Alternative scenarios for the future of the Canadian boreal zone1

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
James W.N. Steenberg ◽  
Peter N. Duinker ◽  
Irena F. Creed ◽  
Jacqueline N. Serran ◽  
Camille Ouellet Dallaire
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Boreal Zone ◽  
Low Carbon Economy ◽  
Carbon Economy

In response to global climate change, Canada is transitioning towards a low-carbon economy and the need for policy approaches that are effective, equitable, coordinated, and both administratively and politically feasible is high. One point is clear; the transition is intimately tied to the vast supply of ecosystem services in the boreal zone of Canada. This paper describes four contrasting futures for the boreal zone using scenario analysis, which is a transdisciplinary, participatory approach that considers alternative futures and policy implications under conditions of high uncertainty and complexity. The two critical forces shaping the four scenarios are the global economy’s energy and society’s capacity to adapt. The six drivers of change are atmospheric change, the demand for provisioning ecosystem services, the demand for nonprovisioning ecosystem services, demographics, and social values, governance and geopolitics, and industrial innovation and infrastructure. The four scenarios include: (i) the Green Path, where a low-carbon economy is coupled with high adaptive capacity; (ii) the Uphill Climb, where a low-carbon economy is instead coupled with low adaptive capacity; (iii) the Carpool Lane, where society has a strong capacity to adapt but a reliance on fossil fuels; and (iv) the Slippery Slope, where there is both a high-carbon economy and a society with low adaptive capacity. The scenarios illustrate the importance of transitioning to a low-carbon economy and the role of society’s adaptive capacity in doing so. However, they also emphasize themes like social inequality and adverse environmental outcomes arising from the push towards climate change mitigation.

scholarly journals Trade-offs between temporal stability and level of forest ecosystem services provisioning under climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (7) ◽  
pp. 1884-1896 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katharina Albrich ◽  
Werner Rammer ◽  
Dominik Thom ◽  
Rupert Seidl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Forest Ecosystem ◽  
Temporal Stability ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Forest Ecosystem Services

Climate Change and Forests

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-43
Author(s):  
Brent Sohngen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Wood Products ◽  
Biomass Energy ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Directions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Carbon Fertilization ◽  
Future Research Directions ◽  
Advance Knowledge

Forests have become an important carbon sink in the last century, with management and carbon fertilization offsetting nearly all of the carbon emitted due to deforestation and conversion of land into agricultural uses. Society appears already to have decided that forests will play an equally ambitious role in the future. Given this, economists are needed to help better understand the efficiency of efforts society may undertake to expand forests, protect them from losses, manage them more intensively, or convert them into wood products, including biomass energy. A rich literature exists on this topic, but a number of critical information gaps persist, representing important opportunities for economists to advance knowledge in the future. This article reviews the literature on forests and climate change and provides some thoughts on potential future research directions.

scholarly journals Balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany’s forests under climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 045012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Gutsch ◽  
Petra Lasch-Born ◽  
Chris Kollas ◽  
Felicitas Suckow ◽  
Christopher P O Reyer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Trade Offs

scholarly journals Restoration of degraded grasslands, but not invasion by Prosopis juliflora, avoids trade-offs between climate change mitigation and other ecosystem services

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Purity Rima Mbaabu ◽  
Daniel Olago ◽  
Maina Gichaba ◽  
Sandra Eckert ◽  
René Eschen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Prosopis Juliflora ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Change Mitigation ◽  
Semi Arid

AbstractGrassland degradation and the concomitant loss of soil organic carbon is widespread in tropical arid and semi-arid regions of the world. Afforestation of degraded grassland, sometimes by using invasive alien trees, has been put forward as a legitimate climate change mitigation strategy. However, even in cases where tree encroachment of degraded grasslands leads to increased soil organic carbon, it may come at a high cost since the restoration of grassland-characteristic biodiversity and ecosystem services will be blocked. We assessed how invasion by Prosopis juliflora and restoration of degraded grasslands in a semi-arid region in Baringo, Kenya affected soil organic carbon, biodiversity and fodder availability. Thirty years of grassland restoration replenished soil organic carbon to 1 m depth at a rate of 1.4% per year and restored herbaceous biomass to levels of pristine grasslands, while plant biodiversity remained low. Invasion of degraded grasslands by P. juliflora increased soil organic carbon primarily in the upper 30 cm and suppressed herbaceous vegetation. We argue that, in contrast to encroachment by invasive alien trees, restoration of grasslands in tropical semi-arid regions can both serve as a measure for climate change mitigation and help restore key ecosystem services important for pastoralists and agro-pastoralist communities.

Risk and vulnerability of Mongolian grasslands to climate change and grazing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Banzragch Nandintsetseg ◽  
Bazartsersen Boldgiv ◽  
Jinfeng Chang ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Masato Shinoda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
National Level ◽  
Grazing Intensity ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Dust Storms ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Climatic Hazards ◽  
The Future

<p>Robust changes in climatic hazards, including droughts, heatwaves and dust storms, are evident in many parts of the world and they are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency in the future. At the same time, socio-ecological damage from climate-related disasters has increased worldwide, including the Eurasian steppes, notably Mongolian grasslands (MGs), which occur in arid and harsh cold climate and still support traditional nomadic livelihood and culture through the food supply, and agricultural and ecosystem services. In the 2000s, increasing climate disasters (droughts combined with anomalously harsh winters (dzuds in Mongolian), and dust storms) resulted in massive livestock deaths, causing socioeconomic stagnation. In this context, assessments of risk and vulnerability of MGs to climate change and grazing may support disaster risk management by helping to identify hazard risk hotspots, allowing herders in risky areas to be prepared for events, and to mitigate the future potential impacts. Here, we examine the risk and vulnerability of the MG ecosystem to droughts at the national-level during a 40-year (1976–2015) using simulations of a gridded process-based ecosystem model by contrasting the recent (1996–2015) and past (1976–1995) 20-years. In general, the model realistically simulates temporal and spatial variations of vegetation biomass and soil moisture that were captured by field and satellite observations during 2000–2015 over MGs. We apply a probabilistic risk analysis in which risk is the product of the probability of hazardous drought during June-August and ecosystem vulnerability. Results reveal that during 1976–2015, increases in droughts with rapid warming and slight drying occurred over MGs, particularly in the recent 20-year, accompanied by ever-increasing grazing intensity, which together resulted in declining trends in grassland productivity. During the recent 20-year, the risk of drought to productivity slightly increased over extended areas in MGs compared to the past 20-year. The increase in the risk to MGs predominantly caused by the climate change-induced increase in the probability of hazardous drought, and less by the vulnerability. Regionally, recent droughts modify the risk to grasslands particularly in northcentral and northeast Mongolia. Given the benefits of MGs for both ecosystem services and socio-economic consequences, recent increases in drought hazards and associated risk to MGs signal an urgent need to implement drought management policies that sustain MGs.</p>

scholarly journals Industrial innovation and infrastructure as drivers of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 275-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordan L. Musetta-Lambert ◽  
Eric M. Enanga ◽  
Sonja Teichert ◽  
Irena F. Creed ◽  
Karen A. Kidd ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Process Management ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Boreal Zone ◽  
Drivers Of Change ◽  
Industrial Innovation ◽  
Natural Resource Extraction ◽  
Human Footprint ◽  
The Future

Much of Canada’s industrial sector is driven by natural resources and relies heavily on provisioning services supplied by the boreal zone. However, the sometimes intensive processes used by resource-based industries and their associated infrastructure have significantly altered the region, creating concerns over the future socio-ecological health of the boreal zone. Addressing these concerns will require industries reliant on natural resources from the boreal zone to innovate their processes, management, and infrastructure to improve extraction efficiency while contributing to society’s increasing expectations related to sustainability. Here, we explore past, current, and future trends in industrial innovation and infrastructure in the boreal zone for forestry, mining, pulp and paper, oil and gas, and renewable sources of power generation. We assess the role of innovation on the future socio-ecological state of the boreal zone by considering interactions between innovation in industry and infrastructure and other key drivers of change in the boreal, such as atmospheric changes, changing demands for nonprovisioning and provisioning ecosystem services, governance, and demographics and social values. We present future scenarios highlighting three divergent trajectories of change in boreal ecosystems based on past and current states of innovation in industry and infrastructure. We suggest that minimizing impacts of natural resource extraction activities in the boreal zone will only be possible through innovation directly focused on reducing the human footprint on the landscape. Innovation in the information technology sector related to process, management, and end products within these industries and placing greater emphasis on cross-sectoral collaboration will be key to achieving this goal.

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