Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change1This article is part of a Special Issue entitled “Pollination biology research in Canada: Perspectives on a mutualism at different scales”.

Botany ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 90 (7) ◽  
pp. 587-597 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felicity E. Bedford ◽  
Robert J. Whittaker ◽  
Jeremy T. Kerr
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Geographical Range ◽  
Large Species ◽  
Species Assemblage ◽  
Mobile Species ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Winter Temperatures

Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins. Here, we investigate geographical range shifts relative to changing climatic conditions among a particularly well-sampled assemblage of butterflies in Canada. We assembled observations of 81 species and measured their latitudinal displacement between two periods: 1960–1975 (a period of little climate change) and 1990–2005 (a period with large climate change). We find an unexpected trend for species’ northern borders to shift progressively less relative to increasing minimum winter temperatures in northern Canada. This study demonstrates a novel, systemic latitudinal gradient in lags among a large species assemblage in responses to recent climate change. Even among the most mobile species and without anthropogenic barriers to dispersal, these pollinators have been unable to extend their ranges as fast as required to keep pace with climate change.

scholarly journals Habitat availability explains variation in climate-driven range shifts across multiple taxonomic groups

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Platts ◽  
Suzanna C. Mason ◽  
Georgina Palmer ◽  
Jane K. Hill ◽  
Tom H. Oliver ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Restoration ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Habitat Availability ◽  
Species Variation ◽  
Extrinsic Factors ◽  
Recent Climate

Abstract Range shifting is vital for species persistence, but there is little consensus on why individual species vary so greatly in the rates at which their ranges have shifted in response to recent climate warming. Here, using 40 years of distribution data for 291 species from 13 invertebrate taxa in Britain, we show that interactions between habitat availability and exposure to climate change at the range margins explain up to half of the variation in rates of range shift. Habitat generalists expanded faster than more specialised species, but this intrinsic trait explains less of the variation in range shifts than habitat availability, which additionally depends on extrinsic factors that may be rare or widespread at the range margin. Similarly, while climate change likely underlies polewards expansions, we find that more of the between-species variation is explained by differences in habitat availability than by changes in climatic suitability. A model that includes both habitat and climate, and their statistical interaction, explains the most variation in range shifts. We conclude that climate-change vulnerability assessments should focus as much on future habitat availability as on climate sensitivity and exposure, with the expectation that habitat restoration and protection will substantially improve species’ abilities to respond to uncertain future climates.

scholarly journals Predicting range-shift success potential for tropical marine fishes using external morphology

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 20160505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shannen M. Smith ◽  
Rebecca J. Fox ◽  
Jennifer M. Donelson ◽  
Megan L. Head ◽  
David J. Booth
Keyword(s):  
Fish Larvae ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Invasion Success ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Tropical Fish ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Native Community ◽  
The Family ◽  
Moorish Idol ◽  
New Habitats

With global change accelerating the rate of species' range shifts, predicting which are most likely to establish viable populations in their new habitats is key to understanding how biological systems will respond. Annually, in Australia, tropical fish larvae from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are transported south via the East Australian Current (EAC), settling into temperate coastal habitats for the summer period, before experiencing near-100% mortality in winter. However, within 10 years, predicted winter ocean temperatures for the southeast coast of Australia will remain high enough for more of these so-called ‘tropical vagrants’ to survive over winter. We used a method of morphological niche analysis, previously shown to be an effective predictor of invasion success by fishes, to project which vagrants have the greatest likelihood of undergoing successful range shifts under these new climatic conditions. We find that species from the family of butterflyfishes (Chaetodontidae), and the moorish idol, Zanclus cornutus , are most likely to be able to exploit new niches within the ecosystem once physiological barriers to overwintering by tropical vagrant species are removed. Overall, the position of vagrants within the morphospace was strongly skewed, suggesting that impending competitive pressures may impact disproportionately on particular parts of the native community.

scholarly journals Short-Lived Species Move Uphill Faster Under Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joséphine Couet ◽  
Emma-Liina Marjakangas ◽  
Andrea Santangeli ◽  
John Atle Kålås ◽  
Åke Lindström ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life Histories ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Large Spatial Scale ◽  
Altitudinal Range ◽  
Species Abundances

Abstract Climate change is pushing species ranges towards poles and mountain tops. Although many studies have documented local altitudinal shifts, knowledge of general patterns at a large spatial scale, such as a whole mountain range, is very limited. From a conservation perspective, studying altitudinal shifts is particularly important as mountain regions often represent biodiversity hotspots and are among the most vulnerable ecosystems. Here, we examine whether altitudinal shifts have occurred among birds in the Scandinavian mountains over 13 years and assess whether such shifts are related to species’ traits. Using abundance data, we show a clear pattern of uphill shifts in the mean altitudes of the bird species’ abundances across the Scandinavian mountains, with an average speed of 0.9 m per year. Out of 77 species, 54 shifted their ranges uphill. In general, the range shift was faster when the altitudinal range within the area was wider. Importantly, the altitudinal shift was strongly related to species’ longevity: short-lived species showed more pronounced altitudinal uphill shifts than long-lived species. Our results show that the altitudinal range shifts are not only driven by a small number of individuals at the range boundaries, but the overall bird abundances are on the move. This highlights the wide-ranging impact of climate change and the potential vulnerability of species with slow life-histories, as they appear unable to timely respond to rapidly changing climatic conditions.

scholarly journals Range Shift in Response to Climate Change of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus Based on Species Redundancy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Chen ◽  
Yuan Feng ◽  
Wu Kui ◽  
Dai Dong ◽  
Wang Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Pattern ◽  
Host Plants ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Pattern Similarity ◽  
Caterpillar Fungus ◽  
Suitable Area

The presence of the Chinese caterpillar fungus (CCF) depends on the distribution of its host insects and host plants. However, its distribution pattern in response to climate change and interspecific relationships in geographical distribution is unknown. We used the MaxEnt model to obtain areas suitable for the CCF, considering its host insects and host plants under different historical climate backgrounds. We then superimposed and analyzed them to explore the range shift in response to climate change of Chinese caterpillar fungus based on species redundancy. From the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to 2050, the suitable distribution pattern of the CCF is estimated to change from fragmentized to concentrated and connected. The high redundancy area (HRA) continued to increase from the Middle Holocene (MH) to the present and 2050, with an increased area of 31.46×104 km2. The suitable area moved to the northwest and the total movement distance of its average coordinates was about 500 km. The altitude of the suitable area increased continuously from the LGM to the present and to 2050, and the average altitude of HRA increased from 2740.89 m (LGM) to 4246.76 m (2050). The distribution pattern and changes of CCF under different climatic conditions provides a reference for the current and future geographical regional planning for conservation and sustainable utilization. The distribution pattern similarity of the CCF suitable area, suitable area for host insects, and host plants HRA of distribution area, might be the result of their long-term co-evolution. The decreasing trend of CCF yield under human disturbance was not as severe as expected, suggesting that climate change may be beneficial to distribution expansion of the CCF.

scholarly journals Empirical evidence for different cognitive effects in explaining the attribution of marine range shifts to climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
pp. 1306-1318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingrid E. van Putten ◽  
Stewart Frusher ◽  
Elizabeth A. Fulton ◽  
Alistair J. Hobday ◽  
Sarah M. Jennings ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Mental Representations ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Cognitive Effects ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Marine Resource ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Marine Climate

Abstract The changing geographical distribution of species, or range shift, is one of the better documented fingerprints of climate change in the marine environment. Range shifts may also lead to dramatic changes in the distribution of economic, social, and cultural opportunities. These challenge marine resource users' capacity to adapt to a changing climate and managers' ability to implement adaptation plans. In particular, a reluctance to attribute marine range shift to climate change can undermine the effectiveness of climate change communications and pose a potential barrier to successful adaptation. Attribution is a known powerful predictor of behavioural intention. Understanding the cognitive processes that underpin the formation of marine resource users' beliefs about the cause of observed marine range shift phenomena is therefore an important topic for research. An examination of the attribution by marine resource users of three types of range shifts experienced in a marine climate change hotspot in southeast Australia to various climate and non-climate drivers indicates the existence of at least three contributing cognitions. These are: (i) engrained mental representations of environmental phenomena, (ii) scientific complexity in the attribution pathway, and (iii) dissonance from the positive or negative nature of the impact. All three play a part in explaining the complex pattern of attribution of marine climate change range shifts, and should be considered when planning for engagement with stakeholders and managers around adaptation to climate change.

scholarly journals An iconic messenger of climate change? Predicting the range dynamics of the European Bee-eater (Merops apiaster)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darius Stiels ◽  
Hans-Valentin Bastian ◽  
Anita Bastian ◽  
Kathrin Schidelko ◽  
Jan O. Engler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
German Population ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Mobile Species ◽  
Main Driver ◽  
Population Sizes

AbstractWhen environmental conditions change, species usually face three options: adaptation, range shifts, or extinction. In the wake of climate change, it is generally believed that range shifts are the norm in mobile species such as birds, resulting in poleward range shifts. The European Bee-eater is a predominantly Mediterranean species which has expanded its range to higher latitudes over the last decades. Germany in particular has seen a surge in breeding pairs and foundation of new colonies. However, while many experts suggest climate warming as the main driver behind this range expansion, an explicit quantification remains open. Here, we use an ensemble modelling approach to study the recent climatic niche suitability of the European Bee-eater across Europe with a special focus on Germany and project its predicted Palaearctic breeding distribution onto the year 2050 using two global circulation models and two representative concentration pathways. Models were able to predict the current European range of the species with some underestimated areas in Central and Eastern Europe, depending on the selected model. We found a strong relationship between climatic suitable areas and estimated population sizes across European countries that is reflected in most algorithms. In particular, the German population size is in line with climate suitability in the country suggesting a strong climate–population relationship and a high degree of niche filling. Most future predictions point to an ongoing northward expansion of the species while areas in Southern Europe and the Maghreb area remain largely suitable. The strong climate–population relationship makes the European Bee-eater an appropriate indicator species for climate change. Yet the high variability of modelling algorithms also call for caution of using these techniques without careful inspection.

scholarly journals Assessing distribution changes of selected native and alien invasive plant species under changing climatic conditions in Nyeri County, Kenya

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julius Maina Waititu ◽  
Charles Ndegwa Mundia ◽  
Arthur W Sichangi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Invasive Species ◽  
Invasive Plant ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The Other ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Invasive Plant Species ◽  
Species Management ◽  
Study Species

AbstractChanges in climatic conditions increases the risks of native and alien taxa expanding in geographical range and causing habitat transformations. The role of climate change in enhancing bio-invasions in local natural environments need to be assessed to guide on effective species management policy formulations. In this present study, we used species presence records, predictor variables and an ensemble of General Circulation Models data to predict suitable ecological niches for five of the selected invasive plant species within Nyeri County, Kenya. We predicted species distributions under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. We analysed species distribution changes to identify invasive species requiring immediate management action. Our analysis indicated that three of the five study species were suitable in ~50% of the study area while the other two were suitable in ~30% under the current climate. Lantana camara L. and Solanum campylacanthum Hochst. ex A. Rich species would experience the largest range shift distance of ~6 – 10km and the largest habitat gain of ~12 – 33% in the future. Caesalpinia decapetala (Roth) Alston, Opuntia stricta (Haw.) Haw. and Senna didymobotrya (Fresen.) H.S. Irwin & Barneby species on the other hand would have a decline in habitat range under future climate change scenarios. Although, S. didymobotrya is considered a native species, it would lose half of its current suitable habitat in the future. Range shift analysis showed all study species would generally shift to the north west direction or towards the Aberdare ranges. From this study we conclude that invasive species management programs for smaller geographical areas ought to consider projecting species distributions under climate change scenarios to identify areas with high possible biodiversity changes. This would be important to conservationists when prioritizing management actions of invasive species in the region where data on invasive species is still limited.

scholarly journals Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arie Staal ◽  
Ingo Fetzer ◽  
Lan Wang-Erlandsson ◽  
Joyce H. C. Bosmans ◽  
Stefan C. Dekker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Forests ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Severe Climate Change ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Tropical forests modify the conditions they depend on through feedbacks at different spatial scales. These feedbacks shape the hysteresis (history-dependence) of tropical forests, thus controlling their resilience to deforestation and response to climate change. Here, we determine the emergent hysteresis from local-scale tipping points and regional-scale forest-rainfall feedbacks across the tropics under the recent climate and a severe climate-change scenario. By integrating remote sensing, a global hydrological model, and detailed atmospheric moisture tracking simulations, we find that forest-rainfall feedback expands the geographic range of possible forest distributions, especially in the Amazon. The Amazon forest could partially recover from complete deforestation, but may lose that resilience later this century. The Congo forest currently lacks resilience, but is predicted to gain it under climate change, whereas forests in Australasia are resilient under both current and future climates. Our results show how tropical forests shape their own distributions and create the climatic conditions that enable them.

scholarly journals Simulating the effects of local adaptation and life history on the ability of plants to track climate shifts

AoB Plants ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily V Moran
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Adaptation ◽  
Life Histories ◽  
Range Size ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Climate Shift ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Climate Shifts ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Many studies have examined the impact of dispersal on local adaptation, but much less attention has been paid to how local adaptation influences range shifts. The aim of this study was to test how local adaptation might affect climate-driven range shifts in plants, and if this might differ between plants with different life histories. Simulated range shift dynamics were compared for hypothetical annual, perennial and tree species, each comprised of either one plastic genotype or six locally adapted genotypes. The landscape consists of shifting climate bands made up of 20 × 20 m patches containing multiple individuals. Effects of seed dispersal, breadth of the plastic species’ tolerance, steepness of the climate gradient and rate of the climate shift are also examined. Local adaptation increased the equilibrium range size and aided range shifts by boosting fitness near range edges. However, when the rate of climate change was doubled on a steep gradient, locally adapted trees exhibited a higher percent loss of range during the climate shift. The plastic annual species with short dispersal was unable to recover its range size even after the climate stabilized, while the locally adapted annuals tracked climate change well. The results suggest that in most situations local adaptation and longer dispersal distances will be advantageous, though not necessarily sufficient, for tracking suitable climates. However, local adaptation might put species with long generation times at greater risk when climate shifts are very rapid. If confirmed by empirical tests, these results suggest that identifying variation between species in how fitness varies along climate gradients and in these key demographic rates might aid in prioritizing management actions.

scholarly journals Climate change and agriculture: A Nepalese case

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 92-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mandip Rai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
The Past ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Agriculture And Environment ◽  
The One ◽  
Developed Nations

Despite having slight disagreements on the magnitude, timing and spatial distribution of climate change, scientists agree that the recent climate change has been much faster than in the past. This has been partly to the natural phenomenon but mostly because of human activities. There is also an agreement that the poorer nations will suffer more as a consequence of the climate change than the developed nations. In this connection, the Nepalese agriculture does not seem to gain but rather lose during the process of global climate change. Even so, serious preparedness and actions can be taken that can hopefully impede the process of climate change and slowly but surely adapt to the rapidly changing climate. To achieve that, agriculture’s role as a driving force for climate change can be condensed by taking measures that reduce the rate and volume of Greenhouse Gas emissions from agriculture on the one hand, and developing diverse and resilient plant and animals breeds, on the other, that are capable of yielding as much as the current levels or even better under the foreseen changed climatic conditions. The Journal of AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT Vol. 8, 2007, pp. 92-95

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