scholarly journals Regression based quasi-experimental approach when randomisation is not an option: interrupted time series analysis

BMJ ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 350 (jun09 5) ◽  
pp. h2750-h2750 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Kontopantelis ◽  
T. Doran ◽  
D. A. Springate ◽  
I. Buchan ◽  
D. Reeves
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Experimental Approach ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Quasi Experimental

scholarly journals Impact of Removal of Automatic 7-Day Stop Orders for Inpatient Antimicrobials

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s264-s265
Author(s):  
Afia Adu-Gyamfi ◽  
Keith Hamilton ◽  
Leigh Cressman ◽  
Ebbing Lautenbach ◽  
Lauren Dutcher
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Treatment Interruptions ◽  
Days Of Therapy ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Impact

Background: Automatic discontinuation of antimicrobial orders after a prespecified duration of therapy has been adopted as a strategy for reducing excess days of therapy (DOT) as part of antimicrobial stewardship efforts. Automatic stop orders have been shown to decrease antimicrobial DOT. However, inadvertent treatment interruptions may occur as a result, potentially contributing to adverse patient outcomes. To evaluate the effects of this practice, we examined the impact of the removal of an electronic 7-day ASO program on hospitalized patients. Methods: We performed a quasi-experimental study on inpatients in 3 acute-care academic hospitals. In the preintervention period (automatic stop orders present; January 1, 2016, to February 28, 2017), we had an electronic dashboard to identify and intervene on unintentionally missed doses. In the postintervention period (April 1, 2017, to March 31, 2018), the automatic stop orders were removed. We compared the primary outcome, DOT per 1,000 patient days (PD) per month, for patients in the automatic stop orders present and absent periods. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to compare median monthly DOT/1,000 PD. Interrupted time series analysis (Prais-Winsten model) was used to compared trends in antibiotic DOT/1,000 PD and the immediate impact of the automatic stop order removal. Manual chart review on a subset of 300 patients, equally divided between the 2 periods, was performed to assess for unintentionally missed doses. Results: In the automatic stop order period, a monthly median of 644.5 antibiotic DOT/1,000 PD were administered, compared to 686.2 DOT/1,000 PD in the period without automatic stop orders (P < .001) (Fig. 1). Using interrupted time series analysis, there was a nonsignificant increase by 46.7 DOT/1,000 PD (95% CI, 40.8 to 134.3) in the month immediately following removal of automatic stop orders (P = .28) (Fig. 2). Even though the slope representing monthly change in DOT/1,000 PD increased in the period without automatic stop orders compared to the period with automatic stop orders, it was not statistically significant (P = .41). Manual chart abstraction revealed that in the period with automatic stop orders, 9 of 150 patients had 17 unintentionally missed days of therapy, whereas none (of 150 patients) in the period without automatic stop orders did. Conclusions: Following removal of the automatic stop orders, there was an overall increase in antibiotic use, although the change in monthly trend of antibiotic use was not significantly different. Even with a dashboard to identify missed doses, there was still a risk of unintentionally missed doses in the period with automatic stop orders. Therefore, this risk should be weighed against the modest difference in antibiotic utilization garnered from automatic stop orders.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

scholarly journals Reduced dengue incidence following deployments of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: a quasi-experimental trial using controlled interrupted time series analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Citra Indriani ◽  
Warsito Tantowijoyo ◽  
Edwige Rancès ◽  
Bekti Andari ◽  
Equatori Prabowo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Control Area ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Endemic Setting ◽  
Experimental Trial ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Quasi Experimental

AbstractBackgroundAe. aegypti mosquitoes stably transfected with the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia pipientis (wMel strain) have been deployed for the biocontrol of dengue and related arboviral diseases in multiple countries. Field releases in northern Australia have previously demonstrated near elimination of local dengue transmission from Wolbachia-treated communities, and pilot studies in Indonesia have demonstrated the feasibility and acceptability of the method. We conducted a quasi-experimental trial to evaluate the impact of scaled Wolbachia releases on dengue incidence in an endemic setting in Indonesia.Methods and findingsIn Yogyakarta City, Indonesia, following an extensive community engagement campaign, wMel Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes were released every two weeks for 13–15 release rounds over seven months in 2016–17, in a contiguous 5 km2 area (population 65,000). A 3 km2 area (population 34,000) on the opposite side of the city was selected a priori as an untreated control area, on the basis of comparable socio-demographic characteristics and historical dengue incidence. Passive surveillance data on notified hospitalised dengue patients was used to evaluate the epidemiological impact of Wolbachia deployments, using controlled interrupted time series analysis. Rapid and sustained introgression of wMel Wolbachia into local Ae. aegypti populations was achieved. Thirty-four dengue cases were notified from the intervention area and 53 from the control area (incidence 26 vs 79 per 100,000 person-years) during the 24 months after Wolbachia was deployed. This corresponded in the regression model to a 73% reduction in dengue incidence (95% confidence interval 49%,86%) associated with the Wolbachia intervention. Exploratory analysis including an additional 6 months of post-intervention observations showed a small strengthening of this effect (30 vs 115 per 100,000 person-years; 76% reduction in incidence, 95%CI 60%,86%).ConclusionsThese findings demonstrate a significant reduction in dengue incidence following successful introgression of Wolbachia into local Ae. aegypti populations in an endemic setting in Indonesia. These results are consistent with previous field trials in northern Australia, and support the effectiveness of this novel approach for the control of dengue and other Aedes-borne diseases.

scholarly journals Impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control on global cigarette consumption: quasi-experimental evaluations using interrupted time series analysis and in-sample forecast event modelling

BMJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. l2287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven J Hoffman ◽  
Mathieu J P Poirier ◽  
Susan Rogers Van Katwyk ◽  
Prativa Baral ◽  
Lathika Sritharan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Cigarette Consumption ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Annual Consumption ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
National Estimates

Abstract Objective To evaluate the impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) on global cigarette consumption. Design Two quasi-experimental impact evaluations, using interrupted time series analysis (ITS) and in-sample forecast event modelling. Setting and population 71 countries for which verified national estimates of cigarette consumption from 1970 to 2015 were available, representing over 95% of the world’s cigarette consumption and 85% of the world’s population. Main outcome measures The FCTC is an international treaty adopted in 2003 that aims to reduce harmful tobacco consumption and is legally binding on the 181 countries that have ratified it. Main outcomes were annual national estimates of cigarette consumption per adult from 71 countries since 1970, allowing global, regional, and country comparisons of consumption levels and trends before and after 2003, with counterfactual control groups modelled using pre-intervention linear time trends (for ITS) and in-sample forecasts (for event modelling). Results No significant change was found in the rate at which global cigarette consumption had been decreasing after the FCTC’s adoption in 2003, using either ITS or event modelling. Results were robust after realigning data to the year FCTC negotiations commenced (1999), or to the year when the FCTC first became legally binding in each country. By contrast to global consumption, high income and European countries showed a decrease in annual consumption by over 1000 cigarettes per adult after 2003, whereas low and middle income and Asian countries showed an increased annual consumption by over 500 cigarettes per adult when compared with a counterfactual event model. Conclusions This study finds no evidence to indicate that global progress in reducing cigarette consumption has been accelerated by the FCTC treaty mechanism. This null finding, combined with regional differences, should caution against complacency in the global tobacco control community, motivate greater implementation of proven tobacco control policies, encourage assertive responses to tobacco industry activities, and inform the design of more effective health treaties.

scholarly journals Reduced dengue incidence following deployments of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: a quasi-experimental trial using controlled interrupted time series analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Citra Indriani ◽  
Warsito Tantowijoyo ◽  
Edwige Rancès ◽  
Bekti Andari ◽  
Equatori Prabowo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Control Area ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Endemic Setting ◽  
Experimental Trial ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Quasi Experimental

Background: Ae. aegypti mosquitoes stably transfected with the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia pipientis (wMel strain) have been deployed for biocontrol of dengue and related arboviral diseases in multiple countries. Field releases in northern Australia have previously demonstrated near elimination of local dengue transmission from Wolbachia-treated communities, and pilot studies in Indonesia have demonstrated the feasibility and acceptability of the method. We conducted a quasi-experimental trial to evaluate the impact of scaled Wolbachia releases on dengue incidence in an endemic setting in Indonesia. Methods: In Yogyakarta City, Indonesia, following extensive community engagement, wMel Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes were released every two weeks for 13–15 rounds over seven months in 2016–17, in a contiguous 5 km2 area (population 65,000). A 3 km2 area (population 34,000) on the opposite side of the city was selected a priori as an untreated control area. Passive surveillance data on notified hospitalised dengue patients was used to evaluate the epidemiological impact of Wolbachia deployments, using controlled interrupted time-series analysis. Results: Rapid and sustained introgression of wMel Wolbachia into local Ae. aegypti populations was achieved. Thirty-four dengue cases were notified from the intervention area and 53 from the control area (incidence 26 vs 79 per 100,000 person-years) during 24 months following Wolbachia deployment. This corresponded in the regression model to a 73% reduction in dengue incidence (95% confidence interval 49%,86%) associated with the Wolbachia intervention. Exploratory analysis including 6 months additional post-intervention observations showed a small strengthening of this effect (30 vs 115 per 100,000 person-years; 76% reduction in incidence, 95%CI 60%,86%). Conclusions: We demonstrate a significant reduction in dengue incidence following successful introgression of Wolbachia into local Ae. aegypti populations in an endemic setting in Indonesia. These findings are consistent with previous field trials in northern Australia, and support the effectiveness of this novel approach for dengue control.

scholarly journals Impact of Generic Entry on Hospital Antimicrobial Use: A Retrospective Quasi-Experimental Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Antibiotics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1149
Author(s):  
Mercè Espona ◽  
Daniel Echeverria-Esnal ◽  
Sergi Hernandez ◽  
Alexander Almendral ◽  
Silvia Inés Gómez-Zorrilla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Economic Benefit ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Antimicrobial Consumption ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Generic Entry ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Impact

Background: The impact of antimicrobials generic entry (GE) is controversial. Their introduction could provide an economic benefit yet may also increase their consumption, leading to a higher risk of resistance. Our aim was to analyze the impact of GE on trends of antimicrobial consumption in an acute-care hospital. Methods: A retrospective quasi-experimental interrupted time series analysis was conducted at a 400-bed tertiary hospital in Barcelona, Spain. All antimicrobials for systemic use for which a generic product entered the hospital from January 2000 to December 2019 were included. Antimicrobial consumption was expressed as DDD/100 bed days. Results: After GE, the consumption of cefotaxime (0.09, p < 0.001), meropenem (0.54, p < 0.001), and piperacillin-tazobactam (0.13, p < 0.001) increased, whereas the use of clindamycin (−0.03, p < 0.001) and itraconazole (−0.02, p = 0.01) was reduced. An alarming rise in cefepime (0.004), daptomycin (1.02), and cloxacillin (0.05) prescriptions was observed, despite not achieving statistical significance. On the contrary, the use of amoxicillin (−0.07), ampicillin (−0.02), cefixime (−0.06), fluconazole (−0.13), imipenem–cilastatin (−0.50) and levofloxacin (−0.35) decreased. These effects were noticed beyond the first year post GE. Conclusions: GE led to an increase in the consumption of broad-spectrum molecules. The potential economic benefit of generic antibiotics could be diluted by an increase in resistance. Antimicrobial stewardship should continue to monitor these molecules despite GE.

scholarly journals Does admission prevalence change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? An interrupted time series analysis of the impact of reconfiguration in five centres

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Martin ◽  
Edwin Amalraj Raja ◽  
Steve Turner
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admission ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Inpatient Services ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Admission Prevalence

Abstract Background Service reconfiguration of inpatient services in a hospital includes complete and partial closure of all emergency inpatient facilities. The “natural experiment” of service reconfiguration may give insight into drivers for emergency admissions to hospital. This study addressed the question does the prevalence of emergency admission to hospital for children change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? Methods There were five service reconfigurations in Scottish hospitals between 2004 and 2018 where emergency admissions to one “reconfigured” hospital were halted (permanently or temporarily) and directed to a second “adjacent” hospital. The number of emergency admissions (standardised to /1000 children in the regional population) per month to the “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals was obtained for five years prior to reconfiguration and up to five years afterwards. An interrupted time series analysis considered the association between reconfiguration and admissions across pairs comprised of “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals, with adjustment for seasonality and an overall rising trend in admissions. Results Of the five episodes of reconfiguration, two were immediate closure, two involved closure only to overnight admissions and one with overnight closure for a period and then closure. In “reconfigured” hospitals there was an average fall of 117 admissions/month [95% CI 78, 156] in the year after reconfiguration compared to the year before, and in “adjacent” hospitals admissions rose by 82/month [32, 131]. Across paired reconfigured and adjacent hospitals, in the months post reconfiguration, the overall number of admissions to one hospital pair slowed, in another pair admissions accelerated, and admission prevalence was unchanged in three pairs. After reconfiguration in one hospital, there was a rise in admissions to a third hospital which was closer than the named “adjacent” hospital. Conclusions There are diverse outcomes for the number of emergency admissions post reconfiguration of inpatient facilities. Factors including resources placed in the community after local reconfiguration, distance to the “adjacent” hospital and local deprivation may be important drivers for admission pathways after reconfiguration. Policy makers considering reconfiguration might consider a number of factors which may be important determinants of admissions post reconfiguration.

Recession and risk of suicide in Denmark during the 2009 global financial crisis: an ecological register-based study

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110132
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Konieczna ◽  
Sarah Grube Jakobsen ◽  
Christina Petrea Larsen ◽  
Erik Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Prevention Programmes ◽  
The Impact

Aim: The aim of this study is to analyse the potential impact from the financial crisis (onset in 2009) on suicide rates in Denmark. The hypothesis is that the global financial crisis raised unemployment which leads to raising the suicide rate in Denmark and that the impact is most prominent in men. Method: This study used an ecological study design, including register data from 2001 until 2016 on unemployment, suicide, gender and calendar time which was analysed using Poisson regression models and interrupted time series analysis. Results: The correlation between unemployment and suicide rates was positive in the period and statistically significant for all, but at a moderate level. A dichotomised version of time (calendar year) showed a significant reduction in the suicide rate for women (incidence rate ratio 0.87, P=0.002). Interrupted time series analysis showed a significant decreasing trend for the overall suicide rate and for men in the pre-recession period, which in both cases stagnated after the onset of recession in 2009. The difference between the genders’ suicide rate changed significantly at the onset of recession, as the rate for men increased and the rate for women decreased. Discussion: The Danish social welfare model might have prevented social disintegration and suicide among unemployed, and suicide prevention programmes might have prevented deaths among unemployed and mentally ill individuals. Conclusions: We found some indications for gender-specific differences from the impact of the financial crises on the suicide rate. We recommend that men should be specifically targeted for appropriate prevention programmes during periods of economic downturn.

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