scholarly journals Anticipating future Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 7 eruptions and their chilling impacts

Geosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 572-603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Newhall ◽  
Stephen Self ◽  
Alan Robock
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Explosivity Index

Pushing the Volcanic Explosivity Index to its limit and beyond: Constraints from exceptionally weak explosive eruptions at Kīlauea in 2008

Geology ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 627-630 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.F. Houghton ◽  
D.A. Swanson ◽  
J. Rausch ◽  
R.J. Carey ◽  
S.A. Fagents ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Explosive Eruptions ◽  
Volcanic Explosivity Index

scholarly journals Predicting the probability of Mount Merapi eruption using Bayesian Event Tree_Eruption Forecasting

2018 ◽  
Vol 154 ◽  
pp. 01050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dyah Ika Rinawati ◽  
Diana Puspita Sari ◽  
Naniek Utami Handayani ◽  
Bramasta Raga Siwi
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Management ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Volcanic Event ◽  
Volcanic Explosivity Index ◽  
Bayesian Event Tree ◽  
Phase Prediction ◽  
Main Crater ◽  
Logical Information

Mount Merapi is one of the active volcanoes in Indonesia that had varied eruption periods from two to eight years. Due to the density of the population living around the slopes of Mount Merapi, its eruptions caused high number of victims. In order to avoid high number of victims, the disaster management should be improved. Disaster management consist of four phases i.e. mitigation, preparedness, response and reconstruction. In disaster mitigation phase, prediction of the Merapi unrest probability is needed. This paper focus on how to predict the probability of Merapi unrest based on volcano-logical information by using Bayesian Event Tree. Bayesian Event Tree (BET) is a probabilistic model that merges all kinds of volcano-logical information to obtain probability of any relevant volcanic event. The result showed that the probability of Merapi unrest is 0,822. In the next eruption, it has predicted that the volcanic explosivity index (VEI) 2 was biggest chance with the probability of 0,549. It showed that the eruption will take place in the main crater of Merapi with the probability of 0,938.

scholarly journals Are We Prepared for the Next Mega Eruption?

Eos ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Florindo
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Explosivity Index

The frequency of eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 7 is only one or two per thousand years but we cannot afford to be complacent.

scholarly journals MEASUREMENT OF THE VOLCANIC EXPLOSIVITY INDEX (VEI) IN REAL TIME

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dork Sahagian ◽  
Leslie Tintle ◽  
Candace Wygel
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Volcanic Explosivity Index
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