scholarly journals Southern high-latitude warmth during the Jurassic–Cretaceous: New evidence from clumped isotope thermometry

Geology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (8) ◽  
pp. 724-728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madeleine L. Vickers ◽  
David Bajnai ◽  
Gregory D. Price ◽  
Jolien Linckens ◽  
Jens Fiebig
Keyword(s):  
Late Jurassic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Clumped Isotope ◽  
Southern High Latitude ◽  
Near Future ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Southern Atlantic Ocean

Abstract In order to understand the climate dynamics of the Mesozoic greenhouse world, it is vital to determine paleotemperatures from higher latitudes. For the Jurassic and Cretaceous climate, there are significant discrepancies between different proxies and between proxy data and climate models. We determined paleotemperatures from Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous belemnites using the carbonate clumped isotope paleothermometer and compared these values to temperatures derived from TEX86 and other proxies. From our analyses, we infer an average temperature of ∼25 °C for the upper part of the water column of the southern Atlantic Ocean. Our data imply that for mid- to high latitudes, climate models underestimate marine temperatures by >5 °C and, therefore, the amount of warming that would accompany an increase in atmospheric CO2 of more than 4× pre-industrial levels, as is projected for the near future.

Clumped isotope evidence for polar warmth and reduced salinity during the Early Jurassic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Letulle ◽  
Guillaume Suan ◽  
Mikhail Rogov ◽  
Mathieu Daëron ◽  
Arnauld Vinçon-Laugier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Early Jurassic ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Arctic Seas ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Western Tethys ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Clumped Isotope

<p><span>Greenhouse climates are periods characterized by high atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels and the absence of large continental icecaps, conditions that define most of the Phanerozoic eon. Fossil record and proxy data from the Cretaceous-Early Paleogene (145-33 My) greenhouse interval suggest increased polar warmth and reduced latitudinal gradient. Such features are challenging for most climate models. They imply either misinterpretation of paleoenvironmental data or an underestimation of climate sensitivity under greenhouse climate. Here we present a new record from polar (>80°) paleolatitudes of the Early Jurassic (~180My) global warming episode known as the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event. Carbonate clumped isotope (Δ47) thermometry and stable isotope analyses (</span><span>δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>c, </sub>δ<sup>13</sup>C</span><span>) were performed on pristine aragonite bivalve shells from the Polovinnaya River succession (N Siberia) recording exceptionally low burial. Reconstructed growing season temperatures of 9.7</span><span>±5.2 to 19.0±3.4 °C and water δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>w</sub> values of −4.6±1.2 to −2.2±0.8‰VSMOW imply increased warmth and significant freshwater contribution in the Toarcian Arctic seas, in line with coeval Siberian paleobotanical data. The unusually low δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>w </sub>values confirm the incorrectness of assuming a spatially uniform δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>sw</sub> value for calculation of δ<sup>18</sup>O-derived paleotemperatures. The inferred Early Jurassic polar sea surface temperatures are in good agreement with independent high latitude proxy data from Cretaceous and Eocene warming events. Together with coeval sea surface temperatures data from the western Tethys Ocean, our new data suggest a strong reduction of latitudinal temperature gradients during the Toarcian relative to modern gradients. The reconstructed polar warmth and reduction in latitudinal temperature gradient are substantially higher than those simulated by most climate models of the Jurassic to Eocene greenhouse periods, and support the increasing amount of data and models indicating an increase of climate sensitivity with CO<sub>2</sub> levels. Our results bring critical new constraints for model simulations of Jurassic temperatures and δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>sw</sub> values and suggest that high climate sensitivity is the hallmark of greenhouse climates since at least 180 My.</span></p>

County-level USA: No Robust Relationship between Geoclimatic Variables and Cognitive Ability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan J Pesta ◽  
John Fuerst ◽  
Emil O. W. Kirkegaard
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Ability ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cold Weather ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
County Level ◽  
Spatial Lag ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Wrong Direction ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Demographic Covariates

Using a sample of ~3,100 U.S. counties, we tested geoclimatic explanations for why cognitive ability varies across geography. These models posit that geoclimatic factors will strongly predict cognitive ability across geography, even when a variety of common controls appear in the regression equations. Our results generally do not support UV radiation (UVR) based or other geoclimatic models. Specifically, although UVR alone predicted cognitive ability at the U.S. county-level (β = -.33), its validity was markedly reduced in the presence of climatic and demographic covariates (β = -.16), and was reduced even further with a spatial lag (β = -.10). For climate models, average temperature remained a significant predictor in the regression equation containing a spatial lag (β = .35). However, the effect was in the wrong direction relative to typical cold weather hypotheses. Moreover, when we ran the analyses separately by race/ethnicity, no consistent pattern appeared in the models containing the spatial lag. Analyses of gap sizes across counties were also generally inconsistent with predictions from the UVR model. Instead, results seemed to provide support for compositional models.

scholarly journals Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Quante ◽  
Sven N. Willner ◽  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Future Warming

AbstractDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.

scholarly journals The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone. Part II: Analysis of global models

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Katja Matthes ◽  
Susann Tegtmeier ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Solar Variability ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of changes in incoming solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone abundances should be included in climate model simulations to fully capture the atmospheric response to solar variability. This study presents the first systematic comparison of the solar-ozone response (SOR) during the 11 year solar cycle amongst different chemistry-climate models (CCMs) and ozone databases specified in climate models that do not include chemistry. We analyse the SOR in eight CCMs from the WCRP/SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) and compare these with three ozone databases: the Bodeker Scientific database, the SPARC/AC&C database for CMIP5, and the SPARC/CCMI database for CMIP6. The results reveal substantial differences in the representation of the SOR between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ozone databases. The peak amplitude of theSOR in the upper stratosphere (1–5 hPa) decreases from 5 % to 2 % between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 databases. This difference is because the CMIP5 database was constructed from a regression model fit to satellite observations, whereas the CMIP6 database is constructed from CCM simulations, which use a spectral solar irradiance (SSI) dataset with relatively weak UV forcing. The SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database is therefore implicitly more similar to the SOR in the CCMI-1 models than to the CMIP5 ozone database, which shows a greater resemblance in amplitude and structure to the SOR in the Bodeker database. The latitudinal structure of the annual mean SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database and CCMI-1 models is considerably smoother than in the CMIP5 database, which shows strong gradients in the SOR across the midlatitudes owing to the paucity of observations at high latitudes. The SORs in the CMIP6 ozone database and in the CCMI-1 models show a strong seasonal dependence, including large meridional gradients at mid to high latitudes during winter; such seasonal variations in the SOR are not included in the CMIP5 ozone database. Sensitivity experiments with a global atmospheric model without chemistry (ECHAM6.3) are performed to assess the impact of changes in the representation of the SOR and SSI forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The experiments show that the smaller amplitude of the SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database compared to CMIP5 causes a decrease in the modelled tropical stratospheric temperature response over the solar cycle of up to 0.6 K, or around 50 % of the total amplitude. The changes in the SOR explain most of the difference in the amplitude of the tropical stratospheric temperature response in the case with combined changes in SOR and SSI between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The results emphasise the importance of adequately representing the SOR in climate models to capture the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere. Since a number of limitations in the representation of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database have been identified, CMIP6 models without chemistry are encouraged to use the CMIP6 ozone database to capture the climate impacts of solar variability.

Fossil flower of Staphylea L. from the Miocene amber of Mexico: New evidence of the Boreotropical Flora in low-latitude North America

2017 ◽  
Vol 108 (4) ◽  
pp. 471-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana L. Hernández-Damián ◽  
Sergio R. S. Cevallos-Ferriz ◽  
Alma R. Huerta-Vergara
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
First Record ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Apparent Lack ◽  
History Of ◽  
New Evidence

ABSTRACTA new flower preserved in amber in sediments of Simojovel de Allende, México, is identified as an extinct member of Staphyleaceae, a family of angiosperms consisting of only three genera (Staphylea, Turpinia and Euscaphis), which has a large and abundant fossil record and is today distributed over the Northern Hemisphere. Staphylea ochoterenae sp. nov. is the first record of a flower for this group, which is small, pedicelled, pentamer, bisexual, with sepals and petals with similar size, dorsifixed anthers and superior ovary. Furthermore, the presence of stamens with pubescent filaments allows close comparison with extant flowers of Staphylea bulmada and S. forresti, species currently growing in Asia. However, their different number of style (one vs. three) and the apparent lack of a floral disc distinguish them from S. ochoterenae. The presence of Staphyleaceae in southern Mexico ca. 23 to 15My ago is evidence of the long history of integration of vegetation in low-latitude North America, in which some lineages, such as Staphylea, could move southwards from high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, as part of the Boreotropical Flora. In Mexico it grew in association with tropical elements, as suggested by the fossil record of the area.

scholarly journals VARDA (VArved sediments DAtabase) – providing and connecting proxy data from annually laminated lake sediments

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arne Ramisch ◽  
Alexander Brauser ◽  
Mario Dorn ◽  
Cecile Blanchet ◽  
Brian Brademann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Lake Sediments ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Varved Sediments ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Data Compilation ◽  
Varved Lake Sediments

Abstract. Varved lake sediments provide long climatic records with high temporal resolution and low associated age uncertainty. Robust and detailed comparison of well-dated and annually laminated sediment records is crucial for reconstructing abrupt and regionally time-transgressive changes as well as validation of spatial and temporal trajectories of past climatic changes. The VARved sediments DAtabase (VARDA) presented here is the first data compilation for varve chronologies and associated palaeoclimatic proxy records. The current version 1.0 allows detailed comparison of published varve records from 95 lakes. VARDA is freely accessible and was created to assess outputs from climate models with high-resolution terrestrial palaeoclimatic proxies. VARDA additionally provides a technical environment that enables to explore the database of varved lake sediments using a connected data-model and can generate a state-of-the-art graphic representation of multi-site comparison. This allows to reassess existing chronologies and tephra events to synchronize and compare even distant varved lake records. Furthermore, the present version of VARDA permits to explore varve thickness data. In this paper, we report in detail on the data mining and compilation strategies for the identification of varved lakes and assimilation of high-resolution chronologies as well as the technical infrastructure of the database. Additional paleoclimate proxy data will be provided in forthcoming updates. The VARDA graph-database and user interface can be accessed online at https://varve.gfz-potsdam.de, all datasets of version 1.0 are available at http://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.3.2019.003 (Ramisch et al., 2019).

scholarly journals Identification of the Paleocene–Eocene boundary in coastal strata in the Otway Basin, Victoria, Australia

2018 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 317-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joost Frieling ◽  
Emiel P. Huurdeman ◽  
Charlotte C. M. Rem ◽  
Timme H. Donders ◽  
Jörg Pross ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Isotope ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Middle Eocene ◽  
Sampling Point ◽  
Drill Core ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Southeast Australia ◽  
Carbon Isotope Excursion ◽  
Lithostratigraphic Units ◽  
Pollen Species

Abstract. Detailed, stratigraphically well-constrained environmental reconstructions are available for Paleocene and Eocene strata at a range of sites in the southwest Pacific Ocean (New Zealand and East Tasman Plateau; ETP) and Integrated Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1356 in the south of the Australo-Antarctic Gulf (AAG). These reconstructions have revealed a large discrepancy between temperature proxy data and climate models in this region, suggesting a crucial error in model, proxy data or both. To resolve the origin of this discrepancy, detailed reconstructions are needed from both sides of the Tasmanian Gateway. Paleocene–Eocene sedimentary archives from the west of the Tasmanian Gateway have unfortunately remained scarce (only IODP Site U1356), and no well-dated successions are available for the northern sector of the AAG. Here we present new stratigraphic data for upper Paleocene and lower Eocene strata from the Otway Basin, southeast Australia, on the (north)west side of the Tasmanian Gateway. We analyzed sediments recovered from exploration drilling (Latrobe-1 drill core) and outcrop sampling (Point Margaret) and performed high-resolution carbon isotope geochemistry of bulk organic matter and dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) and pollen biostratigraphy on sediments from the regional lithostratigraphic units, including the Pebble Point Formation, Pember Mudstone and Dilwyn Formation. Pollen and dinocyst assemblages are assigned to previously established Australian pollen and dinocyst zonations and tied to available zonations for the SW Pacific. Based on our dinocyst stratigraphy and previously published planktic foraminifer biostratigraphy, the Pebble Point Formation at Point Margaret is dated to the latest Paleocene. The globally synchronous negative carbon isotope excursion that marks the Paleocene–Eocene boundary is identified within the top part of the Pember Mudstone in the Latrobe-1 borehole and at Point Margaret. However, the high abundances of the dinocyst Apectodinium prior to this negative carbon isotope excursion prohibit a direct correlation of this regional bio-event with the quasi-global Apectodinium acme at the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma). Therefore, the first occurrence of the pollen species Spinizonocolpites prominatus and the dinocyst species Florentinia reichartii are here designated as regional markers for the PETM. In the Latrobe-1 drill core, dinocyst biostratigraphy further indicates that the early Eocene (∼ 56–51 Ma) sediments are truncated by a ∼ 10 Myr long hiatus overlain by middle Eocene (∼ 40 Ma) strata. These sedimentary archives from southeast Australia may prove key in resolving the model–data discrepancy in this region, and the new stratigraphic data presented here allow for detailed comparisons between paleoclimate records on both sides of the Tasmanian Gateway.

scholarly journals The last interglacial (Eemian) climate simulated by LOVECLIM and CCSM3

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 5293-5340 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Nikolova ◽  
Q. Yin ◽  
A. Berger ◽  
U. K. Singh ◽  
M. P. Karami
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Interglacial Period ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Vegetation Feedback ◽  
Depth Analysis

Abstract. This paper presents a detailed analysis of the climate of the last interglacial simulated by two climate models of different complexities, LOVECLIM and CCSM3. The simulated surface temperature, hydrological cycle, vegetation and ENSO variability during the last interglacial are analyzed through the comparison with the simulated Pre-Industrial (PI) climate. In both models, the last interglacial period is characterized by a significant warming (cooling) over almost all the continents during boreal summer (winter) leading to a largely increased (reduced) seasonal contrast in the northern (southern) hemisphere. This is mainly due to the much higher (lower) insolation received by the whole Earth in boreal summer (winter) during this interglacial. The arctic is warmer than PI through the whole year, resulting from its much higher summer insolation and its remnant effect in the following fall-winter through the interactions between atmosphere, ocean and sea ice. In the tropical Pacific, the change in the SST annual cycle is suggested to be related to a minor shift towards an El Nino, slightly stronger for MIS-5 than for PI. Intensified African monsoon and vegetation feedback are responsible for the cooling during summer in North Africa and Arabian Peninsula. Over India precipitation maximum is found further west, while in Africa the precipitation maximum migrates further north. Trees and grassland expand north in Sahel/Sahara. A mix of forest and grassland occupies continents and expand deep in the high northern latitudes. Desert areas reduce significantly in Northern Hemisphere, but increase in North Australia. The simulated large-scale climate change during the last interglacial compares reasonably well with proxy data, giving credit to both models and reconstructions. However, discrepancies exist at some regional scales between the two models, indicating the necessity of more in depth analysis of the models and comparisons with proxy data.

scholarly journals PEMANFAATAN MODEL PROYEKSI IKLIM DAN SIMULASI TANAMAN DALAM PENGUATAN ADAPTASI SISTEM PERTANIAN PADI TERHADAP PENURUNAN PRODUKTIVITAS AKIBAT PERUBAHAN IKLIM: STUDI KASUS DI KABUPATEN SUMEDANG, JAWA BARAT

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 159
Author(s):  
Candradijaya A
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Irrigation Scheduling ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Planting Time ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Despite the well-documented model-simulated adverse climate change impact on rice yields reported elsewhere, interventions to address the issue seem to be still limited, particularly at local level. This links to the uncertainty that entails to climate projection and its likely future impact, which varies across regions and climate models. The study analyzes climate change-induced rice yield reduction and the adequacy of current adaptations, to cope with a large range of impact under various climate models. Seventeen General Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate change with scenarios of RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, combined with CROPWAT model for near-future (2011-2040) and far-future (2041-2070) projections. The study was conducted in November-December 2013, in Ujungjaya Subdistrict, the District of Sumedang. The output confirms yield reduction to occur in the near-future, to the extent variable across the GCMs. At the highest estimation, rice yield decreases by 32.00% and 31.81%, in comparison to baseline, for near-future under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, respectively. The reduction extends, with a slightly higher degree, to the far-future. The reduction is sensitive to variation in farming practices of the local farmers, in particular that in planting time and irrigation scheduling. The shifting of planting time to better match rainfall pattern reduces the rice yield by 12.95% for rainfed and 14.07% for the irrigated farming. Meanwhile, improved irrigation scheduling reduces the yield reduction by 16.16%. The findings provide valuable inputs for relevant authorities to understand the climate change-induced rice yield reduction, and to formalate intervention strategies for spesific-location adaptation.

scholarly journals Climate models can correctly simulate the continuum of global-average temperature variability

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (18) ◽  
pp. 8728-8733 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Zhu ◽  
Julien Emile-Geay ◽  
Nicholas P. McKay ◽  
Gregory J. Hakim ◽  
Deborah Khider ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Critical Element ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Climate Forcings ◽  
Global Mean

Climate records exhibit scaling behavior with large exponents, resulting in larger fluctuations at longer timescales. It is unclear whether climate models are capable of simulating these fluctuations, which draws into question their ability to simulate such variability in the coming decades and centuries. Using the latest simulations and data syntheses, we find agreement for spectra derived from observations and models on timescales ranging from interannual to multimillennial. Our results confirm the existence of a scaling break between orbital and annual peaks, occurring around millennial periodicities. That both simple and comprehensive ocean–atmosphere models can reproduce these features suggests that long-range persistence is a consequence of the oceanic integration of both gradual and abrupt climate forcings. This result implies that Holocene low-frequency variability is partly a consequence of the climate system’s integrated memory of orbital forcing. We conclude that climate models appear to contain the essential physics to correctly simulate the spectral continuum of global-mean temperature; however, regional discrepancies remain unresolved. A critical element of successfully simulating suborbital climate variability involves, we hypothesize, initial conditions of the deep ocean state that are consistent with observations of the recent past.

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