Aspect-dependent soil saturation and insight into debris-flow initiation during extreme rainfall in the Colorado Front Range

Geology ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (8) ◽  
pp. 659-662 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian A. Ebel ◽  
Francis K. Rengers ◽  
Gregory E. Tucker
Geology ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 44 (10) ◽  
pp. 823-826 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis K. Rengers ◽  
Luke A. McGuire ◽  
Jeffrey A. Coe ◽  
Jason W. Kean ◽  
Rex L. Baum ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (15) ◽  
pp. 2998-3008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annette I. Patton ◽  
Sara L. Rathburn ◽  
Eric L. Bilderback ◽  
Claire E. Lukens

GSA Today ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 24 (10) ◽  
pp. 4-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Coe ◽  
Jason W. Kean ◽  
Jonathan W. Godt ◽  
Rex L. Baum ◽  
Eric S. Jones ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (11) ◽  
pp. 4265-4278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly M. Mahoney

Abstract Model simulations of the 2013 Colorado Front Range floods are performed using 4-km horizontal grid spacing to evaluate the impact of using explicit convection (EC) versus parameterized convection (CP) in the model convective physics “gray zone.” Significant differences in heavy precipitation forecasts are found across multiple regions in which heavy rain and high-impact flooding occurred. The relative contribution of CP-generated precipitation to total precipitation suggests that greater CP scheme activity in areas upstream of the Front Range flooding may have led to significant downstream model error. Heavy convective precipitation simulated by the Kain–Fritsch CP scheme in particular led to an alteration of the low-level moisture flux and moisture transport fields that ultimately prevented the generation of heavy precipitation in downstream areas as observed. An updated, scale-aware version of the Kain–Fritsch scheme is also tested, and decreased model errors both up- and downstream suggest that scale-aware updates yield improvements in the simulation of this event. Comparisons among multiple CP schemes demonstrate that there are model convective physics gray zone considerations that significantly impact the simulation of extreme rainfall in this event.


Author(s):  
Jinn-Chyi Chen ◽  
Jiang-Guao Jiang ◽  
Wien-Shun Huang ◽  
Yuan-Fan Tsai

Abstract. Rainfall and other extreme events often trigger debris flows. This study examines the debris flow initiation characteristics and probability of debris flow occurrence after extreme rainfalls. The Chenyulan watershed, central Taiwan, which has suffered from the Chi-Chi earthquake (CCE) and extreme rainfalls, was selected as a study area. The rainfall index (RI) was used to analyze the return period (T) and characteristics of debris flow occurrence after extreme rainfalls. The characteristics of debris flow occurrence included the variation in critical RI, threshold of RI for debris flow initiation, and recovery period (t0), the time required for the lowered threshold to return to the original threshold. The variations in critical RI after extreme rainfall and t0 associated with RI were presented. The critical RI threshold was reduced in the years following an extreme rainfall event. The reduction in RI as well as t0 were influenced by the RI. Reduced RI values showed an increasing trend over time, and it gradually return to initial RI. The empirical relationship between the probability of debris flow occurrence (P) and corresponding T of the rainfall characteristics for areas affected by extreme rainfalls and affected by the CCE were developed. Finally, a method for determining the P of a rainfall event was proposed based on the relationship between P and T. This method was successfully applied to evaluate the probability of debris flow occurrence after extreme rainfalls.


2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (17) ◽  
pp. 9084-9092 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke A. McGuire ◽  
Francis K. Rengers ◽  
Jason W. Kean ◽  
Jeffrey A. Coe ◽  
Benjamin B. Mirus ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1015-1023 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Chen ◽  
C. D. Jan ◽  
W. S. Huang

Abstract. This paper reports the variation in rainfall characteristics associated with debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, central Taiwan, between 1963 and 2009. The maximum hourly rainfall Im, the maximum 24 h rainfall Rd, and the rainfall index RI (defined as the product RdIm) were analysed for each rainfall event that triggered a debris flow within the watershed. The corresponding number of debris flows initiated by each rainfall event (N) was also investigated via image analysis and/or field investigation. The relationship between N and RI was analysed. Higher RI of a rainfall event would trigger a larger number of debris flows. This paper also discusses the effects of the Chi-Chi earthquake (CCE) on this relationship and on debris flow initiation. The results showed that the critical RI for debris flow initiation had significant variations and was significantly lower in the years immediately following the CCE of 1999, but appeared to revert to the pre-earthquake condition about five years later. Under the same extreme rainfall event of RI = 365 cm2 h−1, the value of N in the CCE-affected period could be six times larger than that in the non-CCE-affected periods.


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