scholarly journals Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds

Science ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 362 (6415) ◽  
pp. 680-683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vojtěch Kubelka ◽  
Miroslav Šálek ◽  
Pavel Tomkovich ◽  
Zsolt Végvári ◽  
Robert P. Freckleton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nest Predation ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Interspecific Interactions ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Trophic Relationships ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Global Pattern ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
The Tropics

Ongoing climate change is thought to disrupt trophic relationships, with consequences for complex interspecific interactions, yet the effects of climate change on species interactions are poorly understood, and such effects have not been documented at a global scale. Using a single database of 38,191 nests from 237 populations, we found that shorebirds have experienced a worldwide increase in nest predation over the past 70 years. Historically, there existed a latitudinal gradient in nest predation, with the highest rates in the tropics; however, this pattern has been recently reversed in the Northern Hemisphere, most notably in the Arctic. This increased nest predation is consistent with climate-induced shifts in predator-prey relationships.

scholarly journals Adaptation and latitudinal gradients in species interactions: nest predation in birds

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin G. Freeman ◽  
Micah N. Scholer ◽  
Mannfred M. A. Boehm ◽  
Julian Heavyside ◽  
Dolph Schluter
Keyword(s):  
Nest Predation ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Interspecific Interactions ◽  
Interaction Strength ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Evolutionary Rates ◽  
Latitudinal Gradients ◽  
Biotic Interaction ◽  
The Tropics

AbstractThe “biotic interactions” hypothesis—that stronger interspecific interactions in the tropics drive faster evolution and speciation, giving rise to the latitudinal diversity gradient—has inspired many tests of whether certain biotic interactions are indeed stronger in the tropics. However, the possibility that populations have adapted to latitudinal differences in species interactions, blunting effects on evolutionary rates, has been largely ignored. Here we show that mean rates of nest predation experienced by land birds vary minimally with latitude in the Western Hemisphere. This result is surprising because nest predation in birds is a canonical example of a strong tropical biotic interaction. We explain our finding by demonstrating that (1) rates of nest predation are in fact higher in the tropics, but only when controlling for the length of the nesting period, (2) long nesting periods are associated with reduced predation rates, and (3) tropical birds have evolved particularly long nesting periods. We suggest this is a case example of how adaptation to a biotic interaction can alter observed latitudinal gradients in interaction strength, potentially equalizing evolutionary rates among latitudes. More broadly, we advocate for tests of the biotic interactions hypothesis to consider both latitudinal patterns in interaction strength and evolutionary responses to these interactions.

scholarly journals Comment on “Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds”

Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 364 (6445) ◽  
pp. eaaw8529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Bulla ◽  
Jeroen Reneerkens ◽  
Emily L. Weiser ◽  
Aleksandr Sokolov ◽  
Audrey R. Taylor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nest Predation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Global Pattern ◽  
Statistical Support ◽  
Methodological Problems ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
Predation Rates

Kubelka et al. (Reports, 9 November 2018, p. 680) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.

scholarly journals Response to Comment on “Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds”

Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 364 (6445) ◽  
pp. eaaw9893
Author(s):  
Vojtěch Kubelka ◽  
Miroslav Šálek ◽  
Pavel Tomkovich ◽  
Zsolt Végvári ◽  
Robert P. Freckleton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nest Predation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Global Pattern

Bulla et al. dispute our main conclusion that the global pattern of nest predation is disrupted in shorebirds. We disagree with Bulla et al.’s conclusions and contest the robustness of their outcomes. We reaffirm our results that provide clear evidence that nest predation has increased significantly in shorebirds, especially in the Arctic.

scholarly journals Multispecies integrated population model reveals bottom-up dynamics in a seabird predator-prey system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maud Quéroué ◽  
Christophe Barbraud ◽  
Frédéric Barraquand ◽  
Daniel Turek ◽  
Karine Delord ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breeding Success ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Interspecific Interactions ◽  
Demographic Parameters ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Prey System

AbstractAssessing the effects of climate and interspecific relationships on communities is challenging because of the complex interplay between species population dynamics, their interactions, and the need to integrate information across several biological levels (individuals – populations – communities). Usually used to quantify species interactions, integrated population models (IPMs) have recently been extended to communities. These models allow fitting multispecies matrix models to data from multiple sources while simultaneously accounting for various sources of uncertainty in each data source. We used multispecies IPMs accommodating climate conditions to quantify the relative contribution of climate vs. interspecific interactions on demographic parameters, such as survival and breeding success, in the dynamics of a predator-prey system. We considered a stage-structured predator–prey system combining 22 years of capture–recapture data and population counts of two seabirds, the Brown Skua (Catharacta lönnbergi) and its main prey the Blue Petrel (Halobaena caerulea) both breeding on the Kerguelen Islands in the Southern Ocean. Our results showed that climate and predator-prey interactions drive the demography of skuas and petrels in different ways. The breeding success of skuas appeared to be largely driven by the number of petrels and to a lesser extent by intraspecific density-dependence. In contrast, there was no evidence of predation effects on the demographic parameters of petrels, which were affected by oceanographic factors (chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature anomalies). We conclude that bottom-up mechanisms are the main drivers of this skua-petrel system. We discuss the mechanisms by which climate variability and predator-prey relationships may affect the demographic parameters of these seabirds. Taking into account both species interactions and environmental covariates in the same analysis improved our understanding of species dynamics.

scholarly journals No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Bulla ◽  
Jeroen Reneerkens ◽  
Emily L. Weiser ◽  
Aleksandr Sokolov ◽  
Audrey R. Taylor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nest Predation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Statistical Support ◽  
Methodological Problems ◽  
Global Patterns ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
Predation Rates

AbstractKubelka et al. (Science, 9 November 2018, p. 680-683) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.

Predator–prey interactions and climate change

2019 ◽  
pp. 199-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Bretagnolle ◽  
Julien Terraube
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Generalist Predators ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Key Topics ◽  
Available Information

Climate change is likely to impact all trophic levels, although the response of communities and ecosystems to it has only recently received considerable attention. Further, it is expected to affect the magnitude of species interactions themselves. In this chapter, we summarize why and how climate change could affect predator–prey interactions, then review the literature about its impact on predator–prey relationships in birds, and provide prospects for future studies. Expected effects on prey or predators may include changes in the following: distribution, phenology, population density, behaviour, morphology, or physiology. We review the currently available information concerning particular key topics: top-down versus bottom-up control, specialist versus generalist predators, functional versus numerical responses, trophic cascades and regime shifts, and lastly adaptation and selection. Finally, we focus our review on two well-studied bird examples: seabirds and raptors. Key future topics include long-term studies, modelling and experimental studies, evolutionary questions, and conservation issues.

scholarly journals Is It Time for a Reset in Arctic Governance?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 4497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oran R. Young
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Peripheral Region ◽  
Great Power ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Council ◽  
Ground Zero ◽  
Regime Complex

Conditions in the Arctic today differ from those prevailing during the 1990s in ways that have far-reaching implications for the architecture of Arctic governance. What was once a peripheral region regarded as a zone of peace has turned into ground zero for climate change on a global scale and a scene of geopolitical maneuvering in which Russia is flexing its muscles as a resurgent great power, China is launching economic initiatives, and the United States is reacting defensively as an embattled but still potent hegemon. This article explores the consequences of these developments for Arctic governance and specifically for the role of the Arctic Council. The article canvasses options for adjusting the council’s membership and its substantive remit. It pays particular attention to opportunities for the council to play a role in managing the increasingly complex Arctic regime complex.

Fire - climate interactions in a warming world

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guido van der Werf ◽  
James Randerson ◽  
Louis Giglio ◽  
Dave van Wees ◽  
Niels Andela ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Global Pattern ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Fuel Loads ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Rate Of Decline ◽  
Fire Climate Interactions ◽  
Warming World

<p>Elevated fire activity in 2019 across the arctic, Amazon, Australia, and other regions sparked a discussion about the role of climate change for the recent rise in biomass burning.  Given that drivers of fire vary widely between different fire types and regions, interpreting trends requires a regional breakdown of the global pattern. Our Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) now provides nearly 25 years of consistent data and offers important insights into changing fire activity. The GFED record captures a global decline in burned area, driven mostly by reductions in savanna fires from fragmentation and land use change. The global declining trend is therefore driven by areas with relatively low fuel loads where fire often decreases during drought.  Here, we report on increasing fire trends in several other regions, which become even more apparent when proxy data from before the satellite era are included. Increasing trends are concentrated in areas with higher fuel loads that burn more easily under drought conditions, and where warming leads to increasing vapor pressure deficits that contribute to more extreme fire weather and higher combustion completeness values. Therefore, the rate of decline in fire emissions is less pronounced than that in burned area, and emissions of several reduced gases have actually increased over time. The historic time series provides important context for trends and drivers of regions that burned extensively in 2019, and moving beyond burned area to estimate fire emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols is critical to assess how these events may feed back on climate change if trends continue.     </p>

scholarly journals Multi-model ensemble projections of climate change effects on global marine biodiversity

2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (3) ◽  
pp. 741-752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miranda C. Jones ◽  
William W. L. Cheung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Marine Biodiversity ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Distribution Shifts ◽  
Species Specific

Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to explore the effects of future global changes in biodiversity. Previous studies show that variability is introduced into projected distributions through alternative datasets and modelling procedures. However, a multi-model approach to assess biogeographic shifts at the global scale is still rarely applied, particularly in the marine environment. Here, we apply three commonly used SDMs (AquaMaps, Maxent, and the Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model) to assess the global patterns of change in species richness, invasion, and extinction intensity in the world oceans. We make species-specific projections of distribution shift using each SDM, subsequently aggregating them to calculate indices of change across a set of 802 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates. Results indicate an average poleward latitudinal shift across species and SDMs at a rate of 15.5 and 25.6 km decade−1 for a low and high emissions climate change scenario, respectively. Predicted distribution shifts resulted in hotspots of local invasion intensity in high latitude regions, while local extinctions were concentrated near the equator. Specifically, between 10°N and 10°S, we predicted that, on average, 6.5 species would become locally extinct per 0.5° latitude under the climate change emissions scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Average invasions were predicted to be 2.0 species per 0.5° latitude in the Arctic Ocean and 1.5 species per 0.5° latitude in the Southern Ocean. These averaged global hotspots of invasion and local extinction intensity are robust to the different SDM used and coincide with high levels of agreement.

scholarly journals Seed predation increases from the Arctic to the Equator and from high to low elevations

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. eaau4403 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. L. Hargreaves ◽  
Esteban Suárez ◽  
Klaus Mehltreter ◽  
Isla Myers-Smith ◽  
Sula E. Vanderplank ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Seed Predation ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Evolutionary Processes ◽  
Tropical Lowland ◽  
Continuous Forest ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Animal Interaction ◽  
The Tropics

Species interactions have long been predicted to increase in intensity toward the tropics and low elevations because of gradients in climate, productivity, or biodiversity. Despite their importance for understanding global ecological and evolutionary processes, plant-animal interaction gradients are particularly difficult to test systematically across large geographic gradients, and evidence from smaller, disparate studies is inconclusive. By systematically measuring postdispersal seed predation using 6995 standardized seed depots along 18 mountains in the Pacific cordillera, we found that seed predation increases by 17% from the Arctic to the Equator and by 17% from 4000 meters above sea level to sea level. Clines in total predation, likely driven by invertebrates, were consistent across treeline ecotones and within continuous forest and were better explained by climate seasonality than by productivity, biodiversity, or latitude. These results suggest that species interactions play predictably greater ecological and evolutionary roles in tropical, lowland, and other less seasonal ecosystems.

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