Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature

Science ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 361 (6399) ◽  
pp. eaas8806 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin D. Santer ◽  
Stephen Po-Chedley ◽  
Mark D. Zelinka ◽  
Ivana Cvijanovic ◽  
Céline Bonfils ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Geographical Patterns ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Statistical Confidence ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
The Tropics

We provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic “fingerprint” predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical patterns of seasonal cycle amplitude. These common features include increases in amplitude at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, amplitude decreases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and small changes in the tropics. Simple physical mechanisms explain these features. The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence for a significant human effect on Earth’s climate.

scholarly journals Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
John T. Allen ◽  
Mattia Marchio ◽  
Harold E. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Rawinsonde Data

AbstractGlobally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed over the past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to global climate models have suggested that the frequency of thunderstorms and their intensity is likely to increase in the future. Here, we show that according to ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective precipitation (CP) have decreased over the tropics and subtropics with simultaneous increases in 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint a different picture across the mid-latitudes with increasing CAPE and significant decreases to BS06. Differing trends and disagreement between ERA5 and rawinsondes observed over some regions suggest that results should be interpreted with caution, especially for CAPE and CP across tropics where uncertainty is the highest and reliable long-term rawinsonde observations are missing.

scholarly journals Understanding Intermodel Variability in Future Projections of a Sahelian Storm Proxy and Southern Saharan Warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 509-525
Author(s):  
David P. Rowell ◽  
Rory G. J. Fitzpatrick ◽  
Lawrence S. Jackson ◽  
Grace Redmond
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
The North ◽  
Projected Changes

AbstractProjected changes in the intensity of severe rain events over the North African Sahel—falling from large mesoscale convective systems—cannot be directly assessed from global climate models due to their inadequate resolution and parameterization of convection. Instead, the large-scale atmospheric drivers of these storms must be analyzed. Here we study changes in meridional lower-tropospheric temperature gradient across the Sahel (ΔTGrad), which affect storm development via zonal vertical wind shear and Saharan air layer characteristics. Projected changes in ΔTGrad vary substantially among models, adversely affecting planning decisions that need to be resilient to adverse risks, such as increased flooding. This study seeks to understand the causes of these projection uncertainties and finds three key drivers. The first is intermodel variability in remote warming, which has strongest impact on the eastern Sahel, decaying toward the west. Second, and most important, a warming–advection–circulation feedback in a narrow band along the southern Sahara varies in strength between models. Third, variations in southern Saharan evaporative anomalies weakly affect ΔTGrad, although for an outlier model these are sufficiently substantive to reduce warming here to below that of the global mean. Together these uncertain mechanisms lead to uncertain southern Saharan/northern Sahelian warming, causing the bulk of large intermodel variations in ΔTGrad. In the southern Sahel, a local negative feedback limits the contribution to uncertainties in ΔTGrad. This new knowledge of ΔTGrad projection uncertainties provides understanding that can be used, in combination with further research, to constrain projections of severe Sahelian storm activity.

scholarly journals Terrestrial Aridity and Its Response to Greenhouse Warming across CMIP5 Climate Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (14) ◽  
pp. 5583-5600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Scheff ◽  
Dargan M. W. Frierson
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Aridity Index ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Dimensionless Ratio ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract The aridity of a terrestrial climate is often quantified using the dimensionless ratio of annual precipitation (P) to annual potential evapotranspiration (PET). In this study, the climatological patterns and greenhouse warming responses of terrestrial P, Penman–Monteith PET, and are compared among 16 modern global climate models. The large-scale climatological values and implied biome types often disagree widely among models, with large systematic differences from observational estimates. In addition, the PET climatologies often differ by several tens of percent when computed using monthly versus 3-hourly inputs. With greenhouse warming, land P does not systematically increase or decrease, except at high latitudes. Therefore, because of moderate, ubiquitous PET increases, decreases (drying) are much more widespread than increases (wetting) in the tropics, subtropics, and midlatitudes in most models, confirming and expanding on earlier findings. The PET increases are also somewhat sensitive to the time resolution of the inputs, although not as systematically as for the PET climatologies. The changes in the balance between P and PET are also quantified using an alternative aridity index, the ratio , which has a one-to-one but nonlinear correspondence with . It is argued that the magnitudes of changes are more uniformly relevant than the magnitudes of changes, which tend to be much higher in wetter regions. The ratio and its changes are also found to be excellent statistical predictors of the land surface evaporative fraction and its changes.

Retrieval of Latent Heating from TRMM Measurements

2006 ◽  
Vol 87 (11) ◽  
pp. 1555-1572 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.-K. Tao ◽  
E. A. Smith ◽  
R. F. Adler ◽  
Z. S. Haddad ◽  
A. Y. Hou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latent Heat ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Phase Changes ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Rate Profile ◽  
The Tropics

Rainfall is a fundamental process within the Earth's hydrological cycle because it represents a principal forcing term in surface water budgets, while its energetics corollary, latent heating, is the principal source of atmospheric diabatic heating well into the middle latitudes. Latent heat production itself is a consequence of phase changes between the vapor, liquid, and frozen states of water. The properties of the vertical distribution of latent heat release modulate large-scale meridional and zonal circulations within the Tropics, as well as modify the energetic efficiencies of midlatitude weather systems. This paper highlights the retrieval of latent heating from satellite measurements generated by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observatory, which was launched in November 1997 as a joint American–Japanese space endeavor. Since then, TRMM measurements have been providing credible four-dimensional accounts of rainfall over the global Tropics and subtropics, information that can be used to estimate the space–time structure of latent heating across the Earth's low latitudes. A set of algorithm methodologies for estimating latent heating based on precipitation-rate profile retrievals obtained from TRMM measurements has been under continuous development since the advent of the mission s research program. These algorithms are briefly described, followed by a discussion of the latent heating products that they generate. The paper then provides an overview of how TRMM-derived latent heating information is currently being used in conjunction with global weather and climate models, concluding with remarks intended to stimulate further research on latent heating retrieval from satellites.

scholarly journals Long-memory processes in ozone and temperature variations at the region 60° S–60° N

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 4093-4100 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Varotsos ◽  
D. Kirk-Davidoff
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Power Distribution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Global column ozone and tropospheric temperature observations made by ground-based (1964–2004) and satellite-borne (1978–2004) instrumentation are analyzed. Ozone and temperature fluctuations in small time-intervals are found to be positively correlated to those in larger time-intervals in a power-law fashion. For temperature, the exponent of this dependence is larger in the mid-latitudes than in the tropics at long time scales, while for ozone, the exponent is larger in tropics than in the mid-latitudes. In general, greater persistence could be a result of either stronger positive feedbacks or larger inertia. Therefore, the increased slope of the power distribution of temperature in mid-latitudes at long time scales compared to the slope in the tropics could be connected to the poleward increase in climate sensitivity predicted by the global climate models. The detrended fluctuation analysis of model and observed time series provides a helpful tool for visualizing errors in the treatment of long-range correlations, whose correct modeling would greatly enhance confidence in long-term climate and atmospheric chemistry modeling.

Rain and Cloud Perspectives on the Seasonal Cycle over the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 925-940
Author(s):  
Malcolm J. King ◽  
Christian Jakob
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Annual Peak ◽  
High Level ◽  
Cloud Regimes

AbstractConvection over the western equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO) is strongly linked to precipitation over Africa and Australia but is poorly represented in current climate models, and its observed seasonal cycle is poorly understood. This study investigates the seasonal cycle of convection in the WEIO through rainfall and cloud measurements. Rainfall shows a single annual peak in early austral summer, but cloud proxies identify convective activity maxima in both boreal and austral summer. These diverging measures of convection during boreal summer are indicative of a reduction in the intensity of precipitation associated with a given cloud regime or cloud-top height during this time of year but an increase in the overall occurrence of high-top clouds and convectively active cloud regimes. The change in precipitation intensity associated with regimes is found to explain most of the changes in total precipitation during the period from May to November, whereas changes in the occurrence of convective regimes explains most of the changes throughout the rest of the year. The reduction in precipitation intensities associated with cloud regimes over the WEIO during boreal summer appears to be related to large-scale monsoon circulations, which suppress convection through forcing air descent in the midtroposphere and increase the apparent occurrence of convectively active cloud regimes through the advection of high-level cloud from monsoon-active areas toward the WEIO region.

scholarly journals Tropospheric methane in the tropics – first year from IASI hyperspectral infrared observations

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (17) ◽  
pp. 6337-6350 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Crevoisier ◽  
D. Nobileau ◽  
A. M. Fiore ◽  
R. Armante ◽  
A. Chédin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
High Spectral Resolution ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Geographical Patterns ◽  
Methane Distribution ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Simultaneous observations from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), launched together onboard the European MetOp platform in October 2006, are used to retrieve a mid-to-upper tropospheric content of methane (CH4) in clear-sky conditions, in the tropics, over sea, for the first 16 months of operation of MetOp (July 2007–October 2008). With its high spectral resolution, IASI provides nine channels in the 7.7 μm band highly sensitive to CH4 with reduced sensitivities to other atmospheric variables. These channels, sensitive to both CH4 and temperature, are used in conjunction with AMSU channels, only sensitive to temperature, to decorrelate both signals through a non-linear inference scheme based on neural networks. A key point of this approach is that no use is made of prior information in terms of methane seasonality, trend, or geographical patterns. The precision of the retrieval is estimated to be about 16 ppbv (~0.9%). Features of the retrieved methane space-time distribution include: (1) a strong seasonal cycle of 30 ppbv in the northern tropics with a maximum in January–March and a minimum in July–September, and a flat seasonal cycle in the southern tropics, in agreement with in-situ measurements; (2) a latitudinal decrease of 30 ppbv from 20° N to 20° S, in boreal spring and summer, lower than what is observed at the surface but in excellent agreement with tropospheric aircraft measurements; (3) geographical patterns in good agreement with simulations from the atmospheric transport and chemistry model MOZART-2, but with a higher variability and a higher concentration in boreal winter; (4) signatures of CH4 emissions transported to the middle troposphere such as a large plume of elevated tropospheric methane south of the Asian continent, which might be due to Asian emissions from rice paddies uplifted by deep convection during the monsoon period and then transported towards Indonesia. In addition to bringing a greatly improved view of methane distribution, these results from IASI should provide a means to observe and understand atmospheric transport pathways of methane from the surface to the upper troposphere.

scholarly journals Tropical Atlantic Biases in CCSM4

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 3684-3701 ◽  
Author(s):  
Semyon A. Grodsky ◽  
James A. Carton ◽  
Sumant Nigam ◽  
Yuko M. Okumura
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Stratocumulus Clouds ◽  
Subtropical Highs ◽  
The Tropics

This paper focuses on diagnosing biases in the seasonal climate of the tropical Atlantic in the twentieth-century simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). The biases appear in both atmospheric and oceanic components. Mean sea level pressure is erroneously high by a few millibars in the subtropical highs and erroneously low in the polar lows (similar to CCSM3). As a result, surface winds in the tropics are ~1 m s−1 too strong. Excess winds cause excess cooling and depressed SSTs north of the equator. However, south of the equator SST is erroneously high due to the presence of additional warming effects. The region of highest SST bias is close to southern Africa near the mean latitude of the Angola–Benguela Front (ABF). Comparison of CCSM4 to ocean simulations of various resolutions suggests that insufficient horizontal resolution leads to the insufficient northward transport of cool water along this coast and an erroneous southward stretching of the ABF. A similar problem arises in the coupled model if the atmospheric component produces alongshore winds that are too weak. Erroneously warm coastal SSTs spread westward through a combination of advection and positive air–sea feedback involving marine stratocumulus clouds. This study thus highlights three aspects to improve to reduce bias in coupled simulations of the tropical Atlantic: 1) large-scale atmospheric pressure fields; 2) the parameterization of stratocumulus clouds; and 3) the processes, including winds and ocean model resolution, that lead to errors in seasonal SST along southwestern Africa. Improvements of the latter require horizontal resolution much finer than the 1° currently used in many climate models.

scholarly journals Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1823-1847 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Christine Stephan ◽  
Nicholas P. Klingaman ◽  
Pier Luigi Vidale ◽  
Andrew G. Turner ◽  
Marie-Estelle Demory ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Interannual Rainfall Variability ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyse the sensitivity to air–sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ∼ 200, 90 and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively) are analysed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air–sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal mean time series. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

scholarly journals Critically Reassessing Tropospheric Temperature Trends from Radiosondes Using Realistic Validation Experiments

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 465-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly A. Titchner ◽  
P. W. Thorne ◽  
M. P. McCarthy ◽  
S. F. B. Tett ◽  
L. Haimberger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Validation Experiments

Abstract Biases and uncertainties in large-scale radiosonde temperature trends in the troposphere are critically reassessed. Realistic validation experiments are performed on an automatic radiosonde homogenization system by applying it to climate model data with four distinct sets of simulated breakpoint profiles. Knowledge of the “truth” permits a critical assessment of the ability of the system to recover the large-scale trends and a reinterpretation of the results when applied to the real observations. The homogenization system consistently reduces the bias in the daytime tropical, global, and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical trends but underestimates the full magnitude of the bias. Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical and all nighttime trends were less well adjusted owing to the sparsity of stations. The ability to recover the trends is dependent on the underlying error structure, and the true trend does not necessarily lie within the range of estimates. The implications are that tropical tropospheric trends in the unadjusted daytime radiosonde observations, and in many current upper-air datasets, are biased cold, but the degree of this bias cannot be robustly quantified. Therefore, remaining biases in the radiosonde temperature record may account for the apparent tropical lapse rate discrepancy between radiosonde data and climate models. Furthermore, the authors find that the unadjusted global and NH extratropical tropospheric trends are biased cold in the daytime radiosonde observations. Finally, observing system experiments show that, if the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Upper Air Network (GUAN) were to make climate quality observations adhering to the GCOS monitoring principles, then one would be able to constrain the uncertainties in trends at a more comprehensive set of stations. This reaffirms the importance of running GUAN under the GCOS monitoring principles.

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