Greenhouse Warming still Coming: Estimates of the carbon dioxide-induced climate warming predict a large effect that could be doubled by increasing trace gases; some effects of the warming may already be evident

Science ◽  
1986 ◽  
Vol 232 (4750) ◽  
pp. 573-574 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. KERR
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Trace Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Warming

Why does the climate response to greenhouse warming and greenhouse cooling differ? 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Kay ◽  
Jason Chalmers
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations ◽  
Radiative Feedbacks

<p>While the long-standing quest to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity has resulted in intense scrutiny of the processes controlling idealized greenhouse warming, the processes controlling idealized greenhouse cooling have received less attention. Here, differences in the climate response to increased and decreased carbon dioxide concentrations are assessed in state-of-the-art fully coupled climate model experiments. One hundred and fifty years after an imposed instantaneous forcing change, surface global warming from a carbon dioxide doubling (abrupt-2xCO2, 2.43 K) is larger than the surface global cooling from a carbon dioxide halving (abrupt-0p5xCO2, 1.97 K). Both forcing and feedback differences explain these climate response differences. Multiple approaches show the radiative forcing for a carbon dioxide doubling is ~10% larger than for a carbon dioxide halving. In addition, radiative feedbacks are less negative in the doubling experiments than in the halving experiments. Specifically, less negative tropical shortwave cloud feedbacks and more positive subtropical cloud feedbacks lead to more greenhouse 2xCO2 warming than 0.5xCO2 greenhouse cooling. Motivated to directly isolate the influence of cloud feedbacks on these experiments, additional abrupt-2xCO2 and abrupt-0p5xCO2 experiments with disabled cloud-climate feedbacks were run. Comparison of these “cloud-locked” simulations with the original “cloud active” simulations shows cloud feedbacks help explain the nonlinear global surface temperature response to greenhouse warming and greenhouse cooling. Overall, these results demonstrate that both radiative forcing and radiative feedbacks are needed to explain differences in the surface climate response to increased and decreased carbon dioxide concentrations.</p>

Trace Gases Could Double Climate Warming

Science ◽  
1983 ◽  
Vol 220 (4604) ◽  
pp. 1364-1365 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. KERR
Keyword(s):  
Climate Warming ◽  
Trace Gases

scholarly journals Gravimetrically prepared carbon dioxide standards in support of atmospheric research

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 517-524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley D. Hall ◽  
Andrew M. Crotwell ◽  
Benjamin R. Miller ◽  
Michael Schibig ◽  
James W. Elkins
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Trace Gases ◽  
Step Method ◽  
Atmospheric Research ◽  
Excellent Internal Consistency ◽  
One Step ◽  
Linear Fit ◽  
Steel Surfaces ◽  
Adsorption Of Co2 ◽  
Low Uncertainty

Abstract. We have explored a one-step method for gravimetric preparation of CO2-in-air standards in aluminum cylinders. We consider both adsorption to stainless steel surfaces used in the transfer of highly pure CO2 and adsorption of CO2 to cylinder walls. We demonstrate that CO2-in-air standards can be prepared with relatively low uncertainty (∼ 0.04 %, ∼95 % confidence level) by introducing aliquots whose masses are known to high precision and by using well-characterized cylinders. Five gravimetric standards, prepared over the nominal range of 350 to 490 µmol mol−1 (parts per million, ppm), showed excellent internal consistency, with residuals from a linear fit equal to 0.05 ppm. This work compliments efforts to maintain the World Meteorological Organization, Global Atmosphere Watch, mole fraction scale for carbon dioxide in air, widely used for atmospheric monitoring. This gravimetric technique could be extended to other atmospheric trace gases, depending on the vapor pressure of the gas.

Age of Air in the Stratosphere from Observations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianna Linz ◽  
Benjamin Birner ◽  
Alan Plumb ◽  
Edwin Gerber ◽  
Florian Haenel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Nitrous Oxide ◽  
Sulfur Hexafluoride ◽  
Trace Gases ◽  
Trace Gas ◽  
Calculation Methods ◽  
Stratospheric Circulation ◽  
Tracer Age ◽  
Compact Relationship

<p>Age of air is an idealized tracer often used as a measure of the stratospheric circulation. We will show how to quantitatively relate age to the diabatic circulation and the adiabatic mixing. As it is an idealized tracer, age cannot be measured itself and must be inferred from other tracers. Typically, the two primary trace gases used are sulfur hexafluoride and carbon dioxide. Other tracers have a compact relationship with age, however, and can also be used to calculate age. We will discuss a range of tracer measurements from both satellites and in situ, including sulfur hexafluoride, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and the ratio of argon to nitrogen. We will compare the age derived from these different species, including different calculation methods and caveats, and compare with modeled ideal age and trace gas concentrations. We conclude by showing the strength of the diabatic circulation and the adiabatic mixing calculated from these trace gas calculations.</p>

Representing transient precipitation change of Solar Radiation Management and Carbon Dioxide Removal with fast and slow precipitation components

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anton Laakso ◽  
Peter Snyder ◽  
Stefan Liess ◽  
Antti-Ilari Partanen ◽  
Dylan Millet
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Solar Radiation Management ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Radiation Management ◽  
Global Precipitation ◽  
Global Mean

<p>Solar Radiation Management (SRM) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) have been proposed to mitigate global warming in the event of insufficient greenhouse gas emission reductions. We have studied temperature and precipitation responses to CDR and SRM with the RCP4.5 scenario using the MPI-ESM and CESM Earth System Models (ESMs). The two SRM scenarios were designed to meet different climate targets to keep either global mean 1) surface temperature or 2) precipitation at the 2010-2020 level via stratospheric sulfur injections. This was done in two-fold method, where global aerosol fields were first simulated with aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ, which were then used as prescribed fields in ESM simulations. In the CDR scenario the annual CO<sub>2</sub> increase based on RCP4.5 was counteracted by a 1% annual removal of the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration which decreased the global mean temperature back to the 2010-2020 level at the end of this century. </p><p>Results showed that applying SRM to offset 21st century climate warming in the RCP4.5 scenario led to a 1.42%  (MPI-ESM) or 0.73% (CESM) reduction in global mean precipitation, whereas CDR increased global precipitation by 0.5% in both ESMs for 2080-2100 relative to 2010-2020. To study this further we separated global precipitation responses to a temperature-dependent and a fast temperature-independent components. These were quantified by a regression method. In this method the climate variable (e.g. precipitation) is regressed against the temperature change due to the instantaneous forcing. Temperature-dependent slow response and temperature independent fast response are given by the fitted regression line. We showed that in all simulated geoengineering scenarios, the simulated global mean precipitation change can be represented as the sum of these response components. This component analysis shows that the fast temperature-independent component of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration explains the global mean precipitation change in both SRM and CDR scenarios. Results showed relatively large differences in the individual precipitation components between two ESMs. This component analysis method can be generalized to evaluate and analyze precipitation, or other climate responses, basically in any emission scenario and in any ESM in a conceptually easy way. </p><p>Based on the SRM simulations, a total of or 292-318 Tg(S) (MPI-ESM) or 163-199 Tg(S) (CESM) of injected sulfur from 2020 to 2100 was required to offset global mean warming based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The distinct effects of SRM in the two ESM simulations mainly reflected differing shortwave absorption responses to water vapor. To prevent a global mean precipitation increase, only 95-114 Tg(S) was needed. Simultaneously this prevent the global mean climate warming from exceeding 2 degrees above preindustrial temperatures in both models. </p>

Recent Record Growth in Atmospheric CO2 Levels

2005 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger J. Francey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Greenhouse Effect ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Trace Gases ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Co2 Levels

Environmental Context.Excessive levels of carbon dioxide are accumulating in the atmosphere, principally from burning fossil fuels. The gas is linked to the enhanced greenhouse effect and climate change, and is thus monitored carefully, along with other trace gases that reflect human activity.The rate of growth of carbon dioxide has increased gradually over the past century, and more rapidly in the last decade. Teasing out fossil emissions from changes due to wildfires and to natural exchange with plants and oceans guide global attempts in reducing emissions.

scholarly journals Gravimetrically-Prepared Carbon Dioxide Standards in Support of Atmospheric Research

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley D. Hall ◽  
Andrew M. Crotwell ◽  
Benjamin R. Miller ◽  
Michael Schibig ◽  
James W. Elkins
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Trace Gases ◽  
Step Method ◽  
Atmospheric Research ◽  
Excellent Internal Consistency ◽  
One Step ◽  
Linear Fit ◽  
Steel Surfaces ◽  
Adsorption Of Co2 ◽  
Low Uncertainty

Abstract. We have explored a one-step method for gravimetric preparation of CO2-in-air standards in aluminum cylinders. We consider both adsorption to stainless steel surfaces used in the transfer of highly-pure CO2, and adsorption of CO2 to cylinder walls. We demonstrate that CO2-in-air standards can be prepared with relatively low uncertainty (~ 0.04 %, ~ 95 % Confidence Level) by introducing aliquots whose masses are know to high precision, and by using well-characterized cylinders. Five gravimetric standards, prepared over the nominal range 350 to 490 µmol mol−1 (parts per million, ppm), showed excellent internal consistency, with residuals from a linear fit equal to 0.05 ppm. This work compliments efforts to maintain the World Meteorological Organization, Global Atmosphere Watch, mole fraction scale for carbon dioxide, widely used for atmospheric monitoring. This gravimetric technique could be extended to other atmospheric trace gases, depending on the vapor pressure of the gas.

scholarly journals Differing precipitation response between Solar Radiation Management and Carbon Dioxide Removal due to fast and slow components

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anton Laakso ◽  
Peter K. Snyder ◽  
Stefan Liess ◽  
Antti-Ilari Partanen ◽  
Dylan B. Millet
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Independent Component ◽  
Radiative Properties ◽  
Solar Radiation Management ◽  
Radiation Management ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Solar Radiation Management (SRM) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) are geoengineering methods that have been proposed to prevent climate warming in the event of insufficient greenhouse gas emission reductions. Here, we have studied temperature and precipitation responses to CDR and SRM with the RCP4.5 scenario using the MPI-ESM and CESM Earth System Models (ESMs). The SRM scenarios were designed to meet one of the two different climate targets: to keep either global mean 1) surface temperature or 2) precipitation at the 2010–2020 level via stratospheric sulfur injections. Stratospheric sulfur fields were simulated beforehand with an aerosol-climate model, with the same aerosol radiative properties used in both ESMs. In the CDR scenario, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were reduced to keep the global mean temperature at approximately the 2010–2020 level. Results show that applying SRM to offset 21st century climate warming in the RCP4.5 scenario leads to a 1.42 % (MPI-ESM) or 0.73 % (CESM) reduction in global mean precipitation, whereas CDR increases global precipitation by 0.5 % in both ESMs for 2080–2100 relative to 2010–2020. In all cases, the simulated global mean precipitation change can be represented as the sum of a slow temperature-dependent component and a fast temperature-independent component, which are quantified by regression method. Based on this component analysis, the fast temperature-independent component of CO2 explains the global mean precipitation change in both SRM and CDR scenarios. Based on the SRM simulations, a total of 163–199 Tg(S) (CESM) or 292–318 Tg(S) (MPI-ESM) of injected sulfur from 2020 to 2100 was required to offset global mean warming based on the RCP4.5 scenario. To prevent a global mean precipitation increase, only 95–114 Tg(S) was needed and this was also enough to prevent global mean climate warming from exceeding 2 degrees above preindustrial temperatures. The distinct effects of SRM in the two ESM simulations mainly reflected differing shortwave absorption responses to water vapor. Results also showed relatively large differences in the individual (fast versus slow) precipitation components between ESMs.

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