scholarly journals Predicting non-state terrorism worldwide

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (31) ◽  
pp. eabg4778
Author(s):  
Andre Python ◽  
Andreas Bender ◽  
Anita K. Nandi ◽  
Penelope A. Hancock ◽  
Rohan Arambepola ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Local Effects ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
State Terrorism ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Complex Forms

Several thousand people die every year worldwide because of terrorist attacks perpetrated by non-state actors. In this context, reliable and accurate short-term predictions of non-state terrorism at the local level are key for policy makers to target preventative measures. Using only publicly available data, we show that predictive models that include structural and procedural predictors can accurately predict the occurrence of non-state terrorism locally and a week ahead in regions affected by a relatively high prevalence of terrorism. In these regions, theoretically informed models systematically outperform models using predictors built on past terrorist events only. We further identify and interpret the local effects of major global and regional terrorism drivers. Our study demonstrates the potential of theoretically informed models to predict and explain complex forms of political violence at policy-relevant scales.

Factors Related to the High Prevalence of Diabetic Kidney Disease in Ecuador-Update for Health Policy Makers

Diabetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 67 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 526-P
Author(s):  
MARIANA E. GUADALUPE ◽  
GRACIELA B. ALVAREZ CONDO ◽  
FANNY E. VERA LORENTI ◽  
BETTY J. PAZMIÑO GOMEZ ◽  
EDGAR I. RODAS NEIRA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Policy ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Diabetic Kidney Disease ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Diabetic Kidney ◽  
High Prevalence

Malnutrition pathway for the impact of in utero drought shock on child growth indicators in rural households

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Olukorede Abiona
Keyword(s):  
Local Level ◽  
In Utero ◽  
Child Growth ◽  
Potential Interaction ◽  
Apparent Effect ◽  
Growth Indices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Gestational Period ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Level Reduction

Abstract This paper evaluates the short-term health effects of in utero drought shock using repeated cross-section household data on Malawi. The main finding reveals that the effects of in utero harvest variability caused by rainfall shocks on child growth indices are driven by the deleterious effects of negative rainfall deviations, namely droughts. Negative rainfall deviation during the agricultural season prior to the gestational period of a child leads to a 21.8 per cent average local level reduction in age-standardized height scores, with the counterpart positive rainfall deviation having no apparent effect. The paper also uses harvest and consumption patterns to establish an important link between early-life malnutrition and growth serving as a precursor for the fetal period programming hypothesis in the literature. The direct impact of embryonic period shocks on growth provides supportive evidence on potential interaction between nutritional and environmental pathways.

scholarly journals Terrorist campaigns and the growth of the Muslim population: a reply

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Clara Egger ◽  
Raul Magni-Berton
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Religious Conversion ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Muslim Population ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract A recently published paper in this journal (Choi, 2021) establishes a statistical link between, on the one hand, Islamist terrorist campaigns – including terrorist attacks and online propaganda – and, on the other the growth of the Muslim population. The author explains this result by stating that successful campaigns lead some individuals to convert to Islam. In this commentary, we intend to reply to this article by focusing on the impact of terrorist attacks on religious conversion. We first show that Choi's results suffer from theoretical flaws – a failure to comprehensively unpack the link between violence and conversion – and methodological shortcomings – a focus on all terrorist groups over a period where Islamist attacks were rare. This leads us to replicate Choi's analysis by distinguishing Islamist and non-Islamist terror attacks on a more adequate timeframe. By doing so, we no longer find empirical support for the relationship between terror attacks and the growth of the Muslim population. However, our analyses suggest that such a hypothesis may hold but only in contexts where the level and intensity of political violence are high.

scholarly journals The Role of Risk Preferences in Responses to Messaging About COVID-19 Vaccine Take-Up

2021 ◽  
pp. 194855062199962
Author(s):  
Jennifer S. Trueblood ◽  
Abigail B. Sussman ◽  
Daniel O’Leary
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Flu Vaccine ◽  
Nationally Representative

Development of an effective COVID-19 vaccine is widely considered as one of the best paths to ending the current health crisis. While the ability to distribute a vaccine in the short-term remains uncertain, the availability of a vaccine alone will not be sufficient to stop disease spread. Instead, policy makers will need to overcome the additional hurdle of rapid widespread adoption. In a large-scale nationally representative survey ( N = 34,200), the current work identifies monetary risk preferences as a correlate of take-up of an anticipated COVID-19 vaccine. A complementary experiment ( N = 1,003) leverages this insight to create effective messaging encouraging vaccine take-up. Individual differences in risk preferences moderate responses to messaging that provides benchmarks for vaccine efficacy (by comparing it to the flu vaccine), while messaging that describes pro-social benefits of vaccination (specifically herd immunity) speeds vaccine take-up irrespective of risk preferences. Findings suggest that policy makers should consider risk preferences when targeting vaccine-related communications.

Terrorism-Related Chemical, Biological, Radiation, and Nuclear Attacks: A Historical Global Comparison Influencing the Emergence of Counter-Terrorism Medicine

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Derrick Tin ◽  
Fredrik Granholm ◽  
Alexander Hart ◽  
Gregory R. Ciottone
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Disaster Medicine ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Fecal Matter ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Global Comparison ◽  
State Terrorism ◽  
Fatal Injuries

Abstract Background: Terrorist attacks are growing in complexity, increasing concerns around the use of chemical, biological, radiation, and nuclear (CBRN) agents. This has led to increasing interest in Counter-Terrorism Medicine (CTM) as a Disaster Medicine (DM) sub-specialty. This study aims to provide the epidemiology of CBRN use in terrorism, to detail specific agents used, and to develop training programs for responders. Methods: The open-source Global Terrorism Database (GTD) was searched for all CBRN attacks from January 1, 1970 through December 31, 2018. Attacks were included if they fulfilled the terrorism-related criteria as set by the GTD’s Codebook. Ambiguous events or those meeting only partial criteria were excluded. The database does not include acts of state terrorism. Results: There were 390 total CBRN incidents, causing 930 total fatal injuries (FI) and 14,167 total non-fatal injuries (NFI). A total of 347 chemical attacks (88.9% of total) caused 921 FI (99.0%) and 13,361 NFI (94.3%). Thirty-one biological attacks (8.0%) caused nine FI (1.0%) and 806 NFI (5.7%). Twelve radiation attacks (3.1%) caused zero FI and zero NFI. There were no nuclear attacks. The use of CBRN accounted for less than 0.3% of all terrorist attacks and is a high-risk, low-frequency attack methodology. The Taliban was implicated in 40 of the 347 chemical events, utilizing a mixture of agents including unconfirmed chemical gases (grey literature suggests white phosphorous and chlorine), contaminating water sources with pesticides, and the use of corrosive acid. The Sarin gas attack in Tokyo contributed to 5,500 NFI. Biological attacks accounted for 8.0% of CBRN attacks. Anthrax was used or suspected in 20 of the 31 events, followed by salmonella (5), ricin (3), fecal matter (1), botulinum toxin (1), and HIV (1). Radiation attacks accounted for 3.1% of CBRN attacks. Monazite was used in 10 of the 12 events, followed by iodine 131 (1) and undetermined irradiated plates (1). Conclusion: Currently, CBRN are low-frequency, high-impact attack modalities and remain a concern given the rising rate of terrorist events. Counter-Terrorism Medicine is a developing DM sub-specialty focusing on the mitigation of health care risks from such events. First responders and health care workers should be aware of historic use of CBRN weapons regionally and globally, and should train and prepare to respond appropriately.

Social trust, norms and morality

Human Affairs ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Miroslav Popper
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Social Trust ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Legal Norms ◽  
Increased Sensitivity ◽  
The Individual

AbstractThe article approaches the topic of social trust from an evolutionary perspective. It begins by summarising the most influential approaches that have defined specific and social trust and ascertains what causes differences in degrees of trust and how the potential risk of deception might be lowered. It then notes that the basis of morality had already been formed during the era of prehistoric man, who was able to create coalitions against aggressors and to socially control the behaviour of deviants. It points out, however, that having a certain predisposition to behaving cooperatively or an increased sensitivity to recognising and not tolerating behaviour aimed at abusing cooperation is not a sufficient guarantee of the fact that people will always (or at least in the majority of situations) favour cooperation over deception. One of the reasons for this is a tendency to favour short-term gains over long-term ones. The article argues that establishing norms (moral, social and legal) produces a higher level of social trust because it not only “encourages” individuals to behave in certain ways in particular situations but also works as a sanction which “discourages” the individual from socially deviant behaviour. The article then focuses on a debate about the causal relationship between social trust and social capital. It discusses the suggestion that political institutions, government and the judiciary may reduce rather than raise levels of social capital and consequently also the level of social trust. This is partly because of their powerful position and the consequent scope for corruption and partly because of the fact that even when attempting to act honestly, representatives of these institutions cannot sufficiently reflect upon dynamic change at the local level. Finally, the article ends by adopting the position that social trust is built primarily from bottom up and so it is risky to continually doubt the very existence and usefulness of social norms and morality and to be governed simply by legal norms.

A Practitioner’s Perspective on Realignment

2016 ◽  
Vol 664 (1) ◽  
pp. 221-235
Author(s):  
Wendy S. Still
Keyword(s):  
San Francisco ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Interagency Collaboration ◽  
Cultural Barriers ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Direct Experience ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Alternatives To Incarceration ◽  
Level I ◽  
The City

This article offers a practitioner’s perspective on California’s criminal justice Realignment. Drawing on my direct experience implementing Realignment as the chief probation officer in the city and county of San Francisco, I argue that the San Francisco case illustrates how decarceration can occur without compromising public safety, and I offer a set of lessons for practitioners and policy-makers about how to achieve decarceration despite local political, organizational, and cultural barriers. Specifically, I identify interagency collaboration, investment in community corrections and a commitment to alternatives to incarceration and community engagement with the families of both victims and offenders as key facilitators of decarceration at the local level. I urge observers not to dismiss these lessons as idiosyncratic to San Francisco’s unique locale. Rather, my experience has been that even San Francisco’s exceptionally hospitable local culture is not enough to successfully implement reform; structural arrangements that institutionalize the practical implementation of cultural commitments to reduce reliance on incarceration are required.

Environmental Change, Migration, and Conflict in Africa: A Critical Examination of the Interconnections

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 351-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Freeman
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Critical Examination ◽  
Population Movements ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Islamic Terrorism ◽  
Conflict In Africa ◽  
Intervening Variables ◽  
Causal Variable

How should we understand the interconnections between environmental change, migration, and conflict in Africa? Should the rise of Islamic terrorism and Boko Haram in northeast Nigeria be directly linked to the drying of Lake Chad? Should cattle raiding in Kenya be seen as a result of drought across East Africa? Does the constrained migration of the pastoral Tuareg in the Sahel causally connect to desertification and their rebellion against governmental forces? Despite the compelling and often persuasive case for directly connecting environmental change to migration and conflict, there is a growing agreement in both the environment-migration and climate-conflict spheres that intervening variables determine if and how environmental change causes population movements and political violence. This article presents a case for migration as an intermediary and bidirectional causal variable. The article argues that close attention needs to be paid to local-level manifestations of conflict and (mal)adaptive forms of migration to understand the potential propensity of environmental change to lead to conflict in Africa.

scholarly journals Clinical signs of trachoma are prevalent among Solomon Islanders who have no persistent markers of prior infection with Chlamydia trachomatis

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Robert Butcher ◽  
Oliver Sokana ◽  
Kelvin Jack ◽  
Leslie Sui ◽  
Charles Russell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chlamydia Trachomatis ◽  
Sexual Debut ◽  
Solomon Islands ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
World Health ◽  
Direct Result ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Health Organization

Background: The low population-prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis and high prevalence of trachomatous inflammation–follicular (TF) provide contradictory estimates of the magnitude of the public health threat from trachoma in the Solomon Islands. Improved characterisation of the biology of trachoma in the region may support policy makers as they decide what interventions are required. Here, age-specific profiles of anti-Pgp3 antibodies and conjunctival scarring were examined to determine whether there is evidence of ongoing transmission and pathology from ocular Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection. Methods: A total of 1511 individuals aged ≥1 year were enrolled from randomly selected households in 13 villages in which >10% of children aged 1–9 years had TF prior to a single round of azithromycin mass drug administration undertaken six months previously. Blood was collected to be screened for antibodies to the Ct antigen Pgp3. Tarsal conjunctival photographs were collected for analysis of scarring severity. Results: Anti-Pgp3 seropositivity was 18% in 1–9 year olds, sharply increasing around the age of sexual debut to reach 69% in those over 25 years. Anti-Pgp3 seropositivity did not increase significantly between the ages of 1–9 years and was not associated with TF (p=0.581) or scarring in children (p=0.472). Conjunctival scars were visible in 13.1% of photographs. Mild (p<0.0001) but not severe (p=0.149) scars increased in prevalence with age. Conclusions: Neither conjunctival scars nor lymphoid follicles were associated with antibodies to Ct, suggesting that they are unlikely to be a direct result of ocular Ct infection. Clinical signs of trachoma were prevalent in this population but were not indicative of the underlying rates of Ct infection. The current World Health Organization guidelines for trachoma elimination indicated that this population should receive intervention with mass distribution of antibiotics, but the data presented here suggest that this may not have been appropriate.

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