scholarly journals Ocean planning for species on the move provides substantial benefits and requires few trade-offs

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (50) ◽  
pp. eabb8428
Author(s):  
M. L. Pinsky ◽  
L. A. Rogers ◽  
J. W. Morley ◽  
T. L. Frölicher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
Marine Animals ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Additional Area

Societies increasingly use multisector ocean planning as a tool to mitigate conflicts over space in the sea, but such plans can be highly sensitive to species redistribution driven by climate change or other factors. A key uncertainty is whether planning ahead for future species redistributions imposes high opportunity costs and sharp trade-offs against current ocean plans. Here, we use more than 10,000 projections for marine animals around North America to test the impact of climate-driven species redistributions on the ability of ocean plans to meet their goals. We show that planning for redistributions can substantially reduce exposure to risks from climate change with little additional area set aside and with few trade-offs against current ocean plan effectiveness. Networks of management areas are a key strategy. While climate change will severely disrupt many human activities, we find a strong benefit to proactively planning for long-term ocean change.

scholarly journals Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 239-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. McBean ◽  
H. Motiee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
North America ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Great Lakes Basin ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality, extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair, Niagara and St. Lawrence, and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes, show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further, precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes particularly for the precipitation in the Great Lakes Basin may be demonstrating influences arising from global warming and climate change.

scholarly journals The analysis of the relationship between CO2 level and economic growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 17-23
Author(s):  
Szira Zoltán ◽  
Bárdos Kinga Ilona ◽  
Alghamdi Hani ◽  
Enkhjav Tumentsetseg ◽  
Erika Varga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emission ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

2019 was Earth's second warmest year since 1850. In 2019 the global mean temperature was cooler than in 2016, but warmer than any other year explicitly measured. Consequently, 2016 is still the warmest year in historical observation history. Year-to-year rankings are likely to reflect natural fluctuations in the short term, but the overall pattern remains consistent with a long-term global warming trend. This would be predicted from global warming caused by greenhouse gases, temperature increase across the globe is broadly spread, impacting almost all areas of land and oceans. Climate change" and "global warming" are often used interchangeably but are of distinct significance. Global warming is the long-term heating of the Earth's climate system observed since the pre-industrial period as a result of human activities, mainly the combustion of fossil fuel, which raises the heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in the Earth's air. The term is often used interchangeably with the term climate change, as the latter applies to warming caused both humanly and naturally, and the impact it has on our planet. This is most generally calculated as the average increase in global surface temperature on Earth. Carbon dioxide emission is one of the main reasons for global warming. Since the Industrial Revolution, human sources of carbon dioxide emissions have been growing. Human activities such as the burning of oil, coal and gas, as well as deforestation are the primary cause of the increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. In our research, let’s examine the relationship between the amount of carbon dioxide emissions and the GDP/capita in developed and developing countries.

scholarly journals Natural and Managed Grasslands Productivity during Multiyear in Ex-Arable Lands (in the Context of Climate Change)

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215
Author(s):  
Liudmila Tripolskaja ◽  
Asta Kazlauskaite-Jadzevice ◽  
Virgilijus Baliuckas ◽  
Almantas Razukas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Properties ◽  
Dry Matter ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Rainfall Variation ◽  
Global Issue ◽  
Term Change ◽  
The Impact

Ex-arable land-use change is a global issue with significant implications for climate change and impact for phytocenosis productivity and soil quality. In temperate humid grassland, we examined the impact of climate variability and changes of soil properties on 23 years of grass productivity after conversion of ex-arable soil to abandoned land (AL), unfertilized, and fertilized managed grassland (MGunfert and MGfert, respectively). This study aimed to investigate the changes between phytocenosis dry matter (DM) yield and rainfall amount in May–June and changes of organic carbon (Corg) stocks in soil. It was found that from 1995 to 2019, rainfall in May–June tended to decrease. The more resistant to rainfall variation were plants recovered in AL. The average DM yield of MGfert was 3.0 times higher compared to that in the AL. The DM yields of AL and MG were also influenced by the long-term change of soil properties. Our results showed that Corg sequestration in AL was faster (0.455 Mg ha−1 year−1) than that in MGfert (0.321 Mg ha−1 year−1). These studies will be important in Arenosol for selecting the method for transforming low-productivity arable land into MG.

scholarly journals Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1712) ◽  
pp. 1661-1669 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Alonso ◽  
Menno J. Bouma ◽  
Mercedes Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Nonlinear Response ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Human Model ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
East African ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970–2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito–human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.

scholarly journals Climate Change Controls Phosphorus Transport from the Watershed into Lake Kinneret (Israel)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moshe Gophen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Lake Kinneret ◽  
Phosphorus Transport ◽  
Efficient Management ◽  
Hula Valley ◽  
Reclamation Project ◽  
The Impact

AbstractPart of the Kinneret watershed, the Hula Valley, was modified from wetlands – shallow lake for agricultural cultivation. Enhancement of nutrient fluxes into Lake Kinneret was predicted. Therefore, a reclamation project was implemented and eco-tourism partly replaced agriculture. Since the mid-1980s, regional climate change has been documented. Statistical evaluation of long-term records of TP (Total Phosphorus) concentrations in headwaters and potential resources in the Hula Valley was carried out to identify efficient management design targets. Significant correlation between major headwater river discharge and TP concentration was indicated, whilst the impact of external fertilizer loads and 50,000 winter migratory cranes was probably negligible. Nevertheless, confirmed severe bdamage to agricultural crops carried out by cranes led to their maximal deportation and optimization of their feeding policy. Consequently, the continuation of the present management is recommended.

scholarly journals Sooty tern (Onychoprion fuscatus) survival, oil spills, shrimp fisheries, and hurricanes

PeerJ ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. e3287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan M. Huang ◽  
Oron L. Bass Jr ◽  
Stuart L. Pimm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Shrimp Fishery ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Face Threats ◽  
Shrimp Fisheries ◽  
Onychoprion Fuscatus ◽  
Sooty Tern ◽  
The Impact

Migratory seabirds face threats from climate change and a variety of anthropogenic disturbances. Although most seabird research has focused on the ecology of individuals at the colony, technological advances now allow researchers to track seabird movements at sea and during migration. We combined telemetry data on Onychoprion fuscatus (sooty terns) with a long-term capture-mark-recapture dataset from the Dry Tortugas National Park to map the movements at sea for this species, calculate estimates of mortality, and investigate the impact of hurricanes on a migratory seabird. Included in the latter analysis is information on the locations of recovered bands from deceased individuals wrecked by tropical storms. We present the first known map of sooty tern migration in the Atlantic Ocean. Our results indicate that the birds had minor overlaps with areas affected by the major 2010 oil spill and a major shrimp fishery. Indices of hurricane strength and occurrence are positively correlated with annual mortality and indices of numbers of wrecked birds. As climate change may lead to an increase in severity and frequency of major hurricanes, this may pose a long-term problem for this colony.

scholarly journals Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (7) ◽  
pp. 4353-4389
Author(s):  
S. Quiroga ◽  
C. Suárez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Social Aspect ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Effects Of Drought ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper examines the effects of climate change and drought on agricultural outputs in Spanish rural areas. By now the effects of drought as a response to climate change or policy restrictions have been analyzed through response functions considering direct effects on crop productivity and incomes. These changes also affect incomes distribution in the region and therefore modify the social structure. Here we consider this complementary indirect effect on social distribution of incomes which is essential in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a decomposition of inequalities measure to estimate the impact of climate change and drought on yield disparities. This social aspect is important for climate change policies since it can be determinant for the public acceptance of certain adaptation measures in a context of drought. We provide the empirical estimations for the marginal effects of the two considered impacts: farms' income average and social income distribution. In our estimates we consider crop productivity response to both bio-physical and socio-economic aspects to analyze long term implications on both competitiveness and social disparities. We find disparities in the adaptation priorities depending on the crop and the region analyzed.

The impact of climate change and human activities on the Aral Sea Basin over the past 50 years

2020 ◽  
Vol 245 ◽  
pp. 105125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuanxuan Wang ◽  
Yaning Chen ◽  
Zhi Li ◽  
Gonghuan Fang ◽  
Fei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Aral Sea Basin ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Sgubin ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri ◽  
Nathalie Ollat ◽  
Cornelis van Leeuwen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Developmental Stages ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Cold Waves ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Impact

A comprehensive analysis of all the possible impacts of future climate change is crucial for strategic plans of adaptation for viticulture. Assessments of future climate are generally based on the ensemble mean of state-of-the-art climate model projections, which prefigures a gradual warming over Europe for the 21st century. However, a few models project single or multiple O(10) year temperature drops over the North Atlantic due to a collapsing subpolar gyre (SPG) oceanic convection. The occurrence of these decadal-scale “cold waves” may have strong repercussions over the continent, yet their actual impact is ruled out in a multi-model ensemble mean analysis. Here, we investigate these potential implications for viticulture over Europe by coupling dynamical downscaled EUR-CORDEX temperature projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCP)4.5 scenario from seven different climate models—including CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 exhibiting a SPG convection collapse—with three different phenological models simulating the main developmental stages of the grapevine. The 21st century temperature increase projected by all the models leads to an anticipation of all the developmental stages of the grapevine, shifting the optimal region for a given grapevine variety northward, and making climatic conditions suitable for high-quality wine production in some European regions that are currently not. However, in the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model, this long-term warming trend is suddenly interrupted by decadal-scale cold waves, abruptly pushing the suitability pattern back to conditions that are very similar to the present. These findings are crucial for winemakers in the evaluation of proper strategies to face climate change, and, overall, provide additional information for long-term plans of adaptation, which, so far, are mainly oriented towards the possibility of continuous warming conditions.

scholarly journals Crop adaptation to climate change as a consequence of long-term breeding

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rod J. Snowdon ◽  
Benjamin Wittkop ◽  
Tsu-Wei Chen ◽  
Andreas Stahl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Major Gene ◽  
Stress Constraints ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Yield Stability ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Conventional Breeding ◽  
The Impact

AbstractMajor global crops in high-yielding, temperate cropping regions are facing increasing threats from the impact of climate change, particularly from drought and heat at critical developmental timepoints during the crop lifecycle. Research to address this concern is frequently focused on attempts to identify exotic genetic diversity showing pronounced stress tolerance or avoidance, to elucidate and introgress the responsible genetic factors or to discover underlying genes as a basis for targeted genetic modification. Although such approaches are occasionally successful in imparting a positive effect on performance in specific stress environments, for example through modulation of root depth, major-gene modifications of plant architecture or function tend to be highly context-dependent. In contrast, long-term genetic gain through conventional breeding has incrementally increased yields of modern crops through accumulation of beneficial, small-effect variants which also confer yield stability via stress adaptation. Here we reflect on retrospective breeding progress in major crops and the impact of long-term, conventional breeding on climate adaptation and yield stability under abiotic stress constraints. Looking forward, we outline how new approaches might complement conventional breeding to maintain and accelerate breeding progress, despite the challenges of climate change, as a prerequisite to sustainable future crop productivity.

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