scholarly journals Modeling other minds: Bayesian inference explains human choices in group decision-making

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. eaax8783 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koosha Khalvati ◽  
Seongmin A. Park ◽  
Saghar Mirbagheri ◽  
Remi Philippe ◽  
Mariateresa Sestito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Other Minds ◽  
Group Interactions ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
The Mind ◽  
Partially Observable ◽  
Large Groups

To make decisions in a social context, humans have to predict the behavior of others, an ability that is thought to rely on having a model of other minds known as “theory of mind.” Such a model becomes especially complex when the number of people one simultaneously interacts with is large and actions are anonymous. Here, we present results from a group decision-making task known as the volunteer’s dilemma and demonstrate that a Bayesian model based on partially observable Markov decision processes outperforms existing models in quantitatively predicting human behavior and outcomes of group interactions. Our results suggest that in decision-making tasks involving large groups with anonymous members, humans use Bayesian inference to model the “mind of the group,” making predictions of others’ decisions while also simulating the effects of their own actions on the group’s dynamics in the future.

scholarly journals Bayesian Inference of Other Minds Explains Human Choices in Group Decision Making

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koosha Khalvati ◽  
Seongmin A. Park ◽  
Saghar Mirbagheri ◽  
Remi Philippe ◽  
Mariateresa Sestito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Markov Decision Processes ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Other Minds ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
The Mind ◽  
Partially Observable

AbstractTo make decisions in a social context, humans have to predict the behavior of others, an ability that is thought to rely on having a model of other minds known as theory of mind. Such a model becomes especially complex when the number of people one simultaneously interacts is large and the actions are anonymous. Here, we show that in order to make decisions within a large group, humans employ Bayesian inference to model the “mind of the group,” making predictions of others’ decisions while also considering the effects of their own actions on the group as a whole. We present results from a group decision making task known as the Volunteers Dilemma and demonstrate that a Bayesian model based on partially observable Markov decision processes outperforms existing models in quantitatively explaining human behavior. Our results suggest that in group decision making, rather than acting based solely on the rewards received thus far, humans maintain a model of the group and simulate the group’s dynamics into the future in order to choose an action as a member of the group.

Facilitating Idea Generation and Decision-Making with Concept Maps

2004 ◽  
Vol 03 (02) ◽  
pp. 179-192
Author(s):  
John W. Coffey
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Concept Mapping ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Concept Maps ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Idea Generation ◽  
Methodological Issues ◽  
Group Interactions ◽  
The Creation

This paper contains a description of the creation of Concept Maps in facilitated sessions to promote idea generation and group decision-making. A number of issues pertain to facilitated Concept Mapping, including the number of facilitators, the optimal or manageable size of groups, the sorts of group interactions that are encountered and their impacts on the proceedings, and the sorts of outcomes that can be expected. This article describes these basic issues as well as attributes, concerns, and skills required of facilitators. It presents two case studies illustrating methodological issues pertaining to the facilitation process and the sorts of outcomes that can be achieved.

Twelve (not so) angry men

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 835-843 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bridget M. Waller ◽  
Lorraine Hope ◽  
Nina Burrowes ◽  
Edward R. Morrison
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Size ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Spontaneous Formation ◽  
Mock Jury ◽  
Large Groups

Individuals in large groups do not always contribute equally to group decision making. This may be due to constraints on conversational group size, as when a group is comprised of more than 4 people, it spontaneously fissions into smaller groups within which conversations take place. Thus, if conversations are attempted in larger groups, some individuals will not be part of the spontaneously forming discursive subgroup and, consequently, may not contribute to group decision making. Here, using a mock jury paradigm, the effect of hierarchically subdividing groups to mimic the spontaneous formation of optimally sized conversational groups (while maintaining an overarching group size of 12) was tested. Individuals in the subdivided condition reported greater equality of contribution to the decision-making process than individuals in the control condition, and experienced less inhibition from participation due to the activities of others.

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