scholarly journals Clean air for some: Unintended spillover effects of regional air pollution policies

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. eaav4707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Delin Fang ◽  
Bin Chen ◽  
Klaus Hubacek ◽  
Ruijing Ni ◽  
Lulu Chen ◽  
...  

China has enacted a number of ambitious pollution control policies to mitigate air pollution in urban areas. Unintended side effects of these policies to other environmental policy arenas and regions have largely been ignored. To bridge this gap, we use a multiregional input-output model in combination with an atmospheric chemical transport model to simulate clean air policy scenarios and evaluate their environmental impacts on primary PM2.5and secondary precursor emissions, as well as CO2emissions and water consumption, in the target region and spillover effects to other regions. Our results show that the reduction in primary PM2.5and secondary precursor emissions in the target regions comes at the cost of increasing emissions especially in neighboring provinces. Similarly, co-benefits of lower CO2emissions and reduced water consumption in the target region are achieved at the expense of higher impacts elsewhere, through outsourcing production to less developed regions in China.

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 9281-9321 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. W. Tessum ◽  
J. D. Hill ◽  
J. D. Marshall

Abstract. Mechanistic air pollution models are essential tools in air quality management. Widespread use of such models is hindered, however, by the extensive expertise or computational resources needed to run most models. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations – the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages – attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model (WRF-Chem) within an Eulerian modeling framework, to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. InMAP uses a variable resolution grid that focuses on human exposures by employing higher spatial resolution in urban areas and lower spatial resolution in rural and remote locations and in the upper atmosphere; and by directly calculating steady-state, annual average concentrations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates WRF-Chem predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional error (MFE) and bias (MFB) < 10 % and population-weighted R2 ~ 0.99. Among individual PM2.5 species, the best predictive performance is for primary PM2.5 (MFE: 16 %; MFB: 13 %) and the worst predictive performance is for particulate nitrate (MFE: 119 %; MFB: 106 %). Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. Features planned for future model releases include a larger spatial domain, more temporal information, and the ability to predict ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ju Li ◽  
Zhaobin Sun ◽  
Donald H. Lenschow ◽  
Mingyu Zhou ◽  
Youjun Dou ◽  
...  

Abstract. Despite frequent foehns in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, there are only a few studies of their effects on air pollution in this region, or elsewhere. Here, we discuss a foehn-induced haze front (HF) event using observational data to document its structure and evolution. Using a dense network of comprehensive measurements in the BTH region, our analyses indicate that the foehn played an important role in the formation of the HF with significant impacts on air pollution. Northerly warm–dry foehn winds, with low particulate concentration in the northern area, collided with a cold–wet polluted air mass to the south and formed an HF in the urban area. The HF, which is associated with a surface wind convergence line and distinct contrasts of temperatures, humidity and pollutant concentrations, resulted in an explosive growth of particulate concentration. As the plains-mountain wind circulation was overpowered by the foehn, a weak pressure gradient due to the different air densities between air masses was the main factor forcing advances of the polluted air mass into the clean air mass, resulting in severe air pollution over the main urban areas. Our results show that the foehn can affect air pollution through two effects: direct wind transport of air pollutants, and altering the air mass properties to inhibit boundary-layer growth and thus indirectly aggravating air pollution. This study highlights the need to further investigate the foehn and its impacts on air pollution in the BTH region.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam J. Silva ◽  
Colette L. Heald ◽  
Jeffrey A. Geddes ◽  
Kemen G. Austin ◽  
Prasad S. Kasibhatla ◽  
...  

Abstract. Over recent decades oil palm plantations have rapidly expanded across Southeast Asia (SEA). According to the United Nations, oil palm production in SEA increased by a factor of 3 from 1995 to 2010. We investigate the impacts of current (2010) and future (2020) oil palm expansion in SEA on surface-atmosphere exchange and the resulting air quality in the region. For this purpose, we use satellite data, high-resolution land maps, and the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Relative to a no oil palm plantation scenario (~ 1990), overall simulated isoprene emissions in the region increase by 13 % due to oil palm plantations in 2010 and a further 11 % by 2020. In addition, the expansion of palm plantations leads to local increases in ozone deposition velocities of up to 20 %. The net result of these changes is that oil palm expansion in SEA increases surface O3 by up to 3.5 ppbv over dense urban regions, and could rise more than 4.5 ppbv above baseline levels by 2020. Biogenic secondary organic aerosol loadings also increase by up to 1 μg m−3 due to oil palm expansion, and could increase a further 2.5 μg m−3 by 2020. Our analysis indicates that while the impact of recent oil palm expansion on air quality in the region has been significant, the retrieval error and sensitivity of the current constellation of satellite measurements limit our ability to observe these impacts from space. Oil palm expansion is likely to continue to degrade air quality in the region in the coming decade and hinder efforts to achieve air quality regulations in major urban areas such as Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 3823-3843 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syuichi Itahashi ◽  
Itsushi Uno ◽  
Kazuo Osada ◽  
Yusuke Kamiguchi ◽  
Shigekazu Yamamoto ◽  
...  

Abstract. High PM2. 5 concentrations of around 100 µg m−3 were observed twice during an intensive observation campaign in January 2015 at Fukuoka (33.52° N, 130.47° E) in western Japan. These events were analyzed comprehensively with a regional chemical transport model and synergetic ground-based observations with state-of-the-art measurement systems, which can capture the behavior of secondary inorganic aerosols (SO42−, NO3−, and NH4+). The first episode of high PM2. 5 concentration was dominated by NO3− (type N) and the second episode by SO42− (type S). The concentration of NH4+ (the counterion for SO42− and NO3−) was high for both types. A sensitivity simulation in the chemical transport model showed that the dominant contribution was from transboundary air pollution for both types. To investigate the differences between these types further, the chemical transport model results were examined, and a backward trajectory analysis was used to provide additional information. During both types of episodes, high concentrations of NO3− were found above China, and an air mass that originated from northeast China reached Fukuoka. The travel time from the coastline of China to Fukuoka differed between types: it was 18 h for type N and 24 h for type S. The conversion ratio of SO2 to SO42− (Fs) was less than 0.1 for type N, but reached 0.3 for type S as the air mass approached Fukuoka. The higher Fs for type S was related to the higher relative humidity and the concentration of HO2, which produces H2O2, the most effective oxidant for the aqueous-phase production of SO42−. Analyzing the gas ratio as an indicator of the sensitivity of NO3− to changes in SO42− and NH4+ showed that the air mass over China was NH3-rich for type N, but almost NH3-neutral for type S. Thus, although the high concentration of NO3− above China gradually decreased during transport from China to Fukuoka, higher NO3− concentrations were maintained during transport owing to the lower SO42− for type N. In contrast, for type S, the production of SO42− led to the decomposition of NH4NO3, and more SO42− was transported. Notably, the type N transport pattern was limited to western Japan, especially the island of Kyushu. Transboundary air pollution dominated by SO42− (type S) has been recognized as a major pattern of pollution over East Asia. However, our study confirms the importance of transboundary air pollution dominated by NO3−, which will help refine our understanding of transboundary heavy PM2. 5 pollution in winter over East Asia.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilaria D'Elia ◽  
Gino Briganti ◽  
Lina Vitali ◽  
Antonio Piersanti ◽  
Gaia Righini ◽  
...  

Abstract. Air pollution harms human health and the environment. Several regulatory efforts and different actions have been taken in the last decades by authorities. Air quality trend analysis represents a valid tool in assessing the impact of these actions taken both at national and local levels. This paper presents for the first time the capability of the Italian national chemical transport model, AMS-MINNI, in capturing the observed concentration trends of three air pollutants, NO2, inhalable particles having diameter less than 10 micrometres (PM10) and O3, in Italy over the period 2003–2010. We firstly analyse the model performance finding it in line with the state of the art of regional models applications. The modelled trends result in a general significant downward trend for the three pollutants and, in comparison with observations, the values of the simulated slopes show the same magnitude for NO2 (in the range −3.0 ÷ −0.5 ug m−3 yr−1), while a smaller variability is detected for PM10 (−1.5 ÷ −0.5 ug m−3 yr−1) and O3-maximum daily 8-hour average concentration (−2.0 ÷ −0.5 ug m−3 yr−1). As a general result, we find a good agreement between modelled and observed trends; moreover, the model allowed to extend both the spatial coverage and the statistical significance of pollutants' concentrations trends with respect to observations, in particular for NO2. We also conduct a qualitative attempt to correlate the temporal concentration trends to meteorological and emission variability. Since no clear tendency in yearly meteorological anomalies (temperature, precipitation, geopotential height) was observed for the period investigated, we focus the discussion of concentrations trends on emissions variations. We point out that, due to the complex links between precursors emissions and air pollutants concentrations, emission reductions do not always result in a corresponding decrease in atmospheric concentrations, especially for those pollutants that are formed in the atmosphere such as O3 and the major fraction of PM10. These complex phenomena are still uncertain and their understanding is of the utmost importance in planning future policies for reducing air pollution and its impacts on health and ecosystems.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 8771-8822 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. G. Megaritis ◽  
C. Fountoukis ◽  
P. E. Charalampidis ◽  
C. Pilinis ◽  
S. N. Pandis

Abstract. PMCAMx-2008, a three dimensional chemical transport model (CTM), was applied in Europe to quantify the changes in fine particle (PM2.5) concentration in response to different emission reductions as well as to temperature increase. A summer and a winter simulation period were used, to investigate the seasonal dependence of the PM2.5 response to 50% reductions of SO2, NH3, NOx, anthropogenic VOCs and anthropogenic OA emissions and also to temperature increases of 2.5 and 5 K. Reduction of NH3 emissions seems to be the most effective control strategy for reducing PM2.5, in both periods, resulting in a decrease of PM2.5 up to 5.1 μg m−3 and 1.8 μg m−3 (5.5% and 4% on average) during summer and winter respectively, mainly due to reduction of NH4NO3 (20% on average in both periods). The reduction of SO2 emissions decreases PM2.5 in both periods having a significant effect over the Balkans (up to 1.6 μg m−3) during summer, mainly due to decrease of sulfate (30% on average over the Balkans). The anthropogenic OA control strategy reduces total OA by 15% during winter and 8% in the summer. The reduction of total OA is higher in urban areas close to its emissions sources. A slight decrease of OA (8% in summer and 4% in winter) is also predicted after a 50% reduction of VOCs emissions due to the decrease of anthropogenic SOA. The reduction of NOx emissions reduces PM2.5 (up to 3.4 μg m−3) during the summer, due a decrease of NH4NO3, causing although an increase of ozone concentration in major urban areas and over Western Europe. Additionally, the NOx control strategy actually increases PM2.5 levels during the winter. The increase of temperature results in a decrease of PM2.5 in both periods over Central Europe, mainly due to a decrease of NH4NO3 during summer (18%) and fresh POA during winter (35%). Significant increases of OA are usually predicted during summer due mainly to the increase of biogenic VOC emissions. On the contrary, OA is predicted to decrease in the winter due to the dominance of fresh POA reduction and the small biogenic SOA contribution to OA. The resulting increase of oxidant levels from the temperature rise lead to an increase of sulfate levels in both periods, mainly over North Europe and the Atlantic Ocean. The substantial reduction of PM2.5 components due to emissions reductions of their precursors in conjunction with significant changes of PM after increasing the temperature indicate that both emissions and temperature need to be of significant concern for improving air quality.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (17) ◽  
pp. 11485-11499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiyan Li ◽  
Jing Cheng ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Bo Zheng ◽  
Yuxuan Zhang ◽  
...  

Abstract. The clean air actions implemented by the Chinese government in 2013 have led to significantly improved air quality in Beijing. In this work, we combined the in situ measurements of the chemical components of submicron particles (PM1) in Beijing during the winters of 2014 and 2017 and a regional chemical transport model to investigate the impact of clean air actions on aerosol chemistry and quantify the relative contributions of anthropogenic emissions, meteorological conditions, and regional transport to the changes in aerosol chemical composition from 2014 to 2017. We found that the average PM1 concentration in winter in Beijing decreased by 49.5 % from 2014 to 2017 (from 66.2 to 33.4 µg m−3). Sulfate exhibited a much larger decline than nitrate and ammonium, which led to a rapid transition from sulfate-driven to nitrate-driven aerosol pollution during the wintertime. Organic aerosol (OA), especially coal combustion OA, and black carbon also showed large decreasing rates, indicating the effective emission control of coal combustion and biomass burning. The decreased sulfate contribution and increased nitrate fraction were highly consistent with the much faster emission reductions in sulfur dioxide (SO2) due to phasing out coal in Beijing compared to reduction in nitrogen oxides emissions estimated by bottom-up inventory. The chemical transport model simulations with these emission estimates reproduced the relative changes in aerosol composition and suggested that the reduced emissions in Beijing and its surrounding regions played a dominant role. The variations in meteorological conditions and regional transport contributed much less to the changes in aerosol concentration and its chemical composition during 2014–2017 compared to the decreasing emissions. Finally, we speculated that changes in precursor emissions possibly altered the aerosol formation mechanisms based on ambient observations. The observed explosive growth of sulfate at a relative humidity (RH) greater than 50 % in 2014 was delayed to a higher RH of 70 % in 2017, which was likely caused by the suppressed sulfate formation through heterogeneous reactions due to the decrease in SO2 emissions. Thermodynamic simulations showed that the decreased sulfate and nitrate concentrations have lowered the aerosol water content, particle acidity, and ammonium particle fraction. The results in this study demonstrate the response of aerosol chemistry to the stringent clean air actions and identify that the anthropogenic emission reductions are a major driver, which could help to further guide air pollution control strategies in China.


2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5153-5168 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. P. Tsimpidi ◽  
V. A. Karydis ◽  
M. Zavala ◽  
W. Lei ◽  
N. Bei ◽  
...  

Abstract. Urban areas are large sources of organic aerosols and their precursors. Nevertheless, the contributions of primary (POA) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) to the observed particulate matter levels have been difficult to quantify. In this study the three-dimensional chemical transport model PMCAMx-2008 is used to investigate the temporal and geographic variability of organic aerosol in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) during the MILAGRO campaign that took place in the spring of 2006. The organic module of PMCAMx-2008 includes the recently developed volatility basis-set framework in which both primary and secondary organic components are assumed to be semi-volatile and photochemically reactive and are distributed in logarithmically spaced volatility bins. The MCMA emission inventory is modified and the POA emissions are distributed by volatility based on dilution experiments. The model predictions are compared with observations from four different types of sites, an urban (T0), a suburban (T1), a rural (T2), and an elevated site in Pico de Tres Padres (PTP). The performance of the model in reproducing organic mass concentrations in these sites is encouraging. The average predicted PM1 organic aerosol (OA) concentration in T0, T1, and T2 is 18 μg m−3, 11.7 μg m−3, and 10.5 μg m−3 respectively, while the corresponding measured values are 17.2 μg m−3, 11 μg m−3, and 9 μg m−3. The average predicted locally-emitted primary OA concentrations, 4.4 μg m−3 at T0, 1.2 μg m−3 at T1 and 1.7 μg m−3 at PTP, are in reasonably good agreement with the corresponding PMF analysis estimates based on the Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) observations of 4.5, 1.3, and 2.9 μg m−3 respectively. The model reproduces reasonably well the average oxygenated OA (OOA) levels in T0 (7.5 μg m−3 predicted versus 7.5 μg m−3 measured), in T1 (6.3 μg m−3 predicted versus 4.6 μg m−3 measured) and in PTP (6.6 μg m−3 predicted versus 5.9 μg m−3 measured). The rest of the OA mass (6.1 μg m−3 and 4.2 μg m−3 in T0 and T1 respectively) is assumed to originate from biomass burning activities and is introduced to the model as part of the boundary conditions. Inside Mexico City (at T0), the locally-produced OA is predicted to be on average 60 % locally-emitted primary (POA), 6 % semi-volatile (S-SOA) and intermediate volatile (I-SOA) organic aerosol, and 34 % traditional SOA from the oxidation of VOCs (V-SOA). The average contributions of the OA components to the locally-produced OA for the entire modelling domain are predicted to be 32 % POA, 10 % S-SOA and I-SOA, and 58 % V-SOA. The long range transport from biomass burning activities and other sources in Mexico is predicted to contribute on average almost as much as the local sources during the MILAGRO period.


2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 203-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Colette ◽  
B. Bessagnet ◽  
F. Meleux ◽  
E. Terrenoire ◽  
L. Rouïl

Abstract. The first pan-European kilometre-scale atmospheric chemistry simulation is introduced. The continental-scale air pollution episode of January 2009 is modelled with the CHIMERE offline chemistry transport model with a massive grid of 2 million horizontal points, performed on 2000 CPU of a high-performance computing system hosted by the Research and Technology Computing Center at the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CCRT/CEA). Besides the technical challenge, we find that model biases are significantly reduced, especially over urban areas. The high-resolution grid also allows revisiting of the contribution of individual city plumes to the European burden of pollution, providing new insights to target the appropriate geographical level of action when designing air pollution mitigation strategies.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 7799-7814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Xing ◽  
Dian Ding ◽  
Shuxiao Wang ◽  
Bin Zhao ◽  
Carey Jang ◽  
...  

Abstract. As one common precursor for both PM2.5 and O3 pollution, NOx gains great attention because its controls can be beneficial for reducing both PM2.5 and O3. However, the effectiveness of NOx controls for reducing PM2.5 and O3 are largely influenced by the ambient levels of NH3 and VOC, exhibiting strong nonlinearities characterized as NH3-limited/NH3-poor and NOx-/VOC-limited conditions, respectively. Quantification of such nonlinearities is a prerequisite for making suitable policy decisions but limitations of existing methods were recognized. In this study, a new method was developed by fitting multiple simulations of a chemical transport model (i.e., Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System, CMAQ) with a set of polynomial functions (denoted as “pf-RSM”) to quantify responses of ambient PM2.5 and O3 concentrations to changes in precursor emissions. The accuracy of the pf-RSM is carefully examined to meet the criteria of a mean normalized error within 2 % and a maximal normalized error within 10 % by using 40 training samples with marginal processing. An advantage of the pf-RSM method is that the nonlinearity in PM2.5 and O3 responses to precursor emission changes can be characterized by quantitative indicators, including (1) a peak ratio (denoted as PR) representing VOC-limited or NOx-limited conditions, (2) a suggested ratio of VOC reduction to NOx reduction to avoid increasing O3 under VOC-limited conditions, (3) a flex ratio (denoted as FR) representing NH3-poor or NH3-rich conditions, and (4) enhanced benefits in PM2.5 reductions from simultaneous reduction of NH3 with the same reduction rate of NOx. A case study in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region suggested that most urban areas present strong VOC-limited conditions with a PR from 0.4 to 0.8 in July, implying that the NOx emission reduction rate needs to be greater than 20–60 % to pass the transition from VOC-limited to NOx-limited conditions. A simultaneous VOC control (the ratio of VOC reduction to NOx reduction is about 0.5–1.2) can avoid increasing O3 during the transition. For PM2.5, most urban areas present strong NH3-rich conditions with a PR from 0.75 to 0.95, implying that NH3 is sufficiently abundant to neutralize extra nitric acid produced by an additional 5–35 % of NOx emissions. Enhanced benefits in PM2.5 reductions from simultaneous reduction of NH3 were estimated to be 0.04–0.15 µg m−3 PM2.5 per 1 % reduction of NH3 along with NOx, with greater benefits in July when the NH3-rich conditions are not as strong as in January. Thus, the newly developed pf-RSM model has successfully quantified the enhanced effectiveness of NOx control, and simultaneous reduction of VOC and NH3 with NOx can assure the control effectiveness of PM2.5 and O3.


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