What if Energy Flowed from Cold to Hot? Counterfactual Thought Experiments

2020 ◽  
Vol 58 (7) ◽  
pp. 491-493
Author(s):  
Harvey S. Leff ◽  
Richard Kaufman
Keyword(s):  
Thought Experiments ◽  
Counterfactual Thought

Counterfactuals and Foreign Policy Analysis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Ned Lebow
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Thought Experiments ◽  
Foreign Policy Analysis ◽  
Causal Claim ◽  
Counterfactual Thought ◽  
A Chain ◽  
Analytical Frameworks ◽  
Causal Logic

Counterfactuals seek to alter some feature or event of the pass and by means of a chain of causal logic show how the present might, or would, be different. Counterfactual inquiry—or control of counterfactual situations—is essential to any causal claim. More importantly, counterfactual thought experiments are essential, to the construction of analytical frameworks. Policymakers routinely use then by to identify problems, work their way through problems, and select responses. Good foreign-policy analysis must accordingly engage and employ counterfactuals. There are two generic types of counterfactuals: minimal-rewrite counterfactuals and miracle counterfactuals. They have relevance when formulating propositions and probing contingency and causation. There is also a set of protocols for using both kinds of counterfactuals toward these ends, and it illustrates the uses and protocols with historical examples. Policymakers invoke counterfactuals frequently, especially with regard to foreign policy, to both choose policies and defend them to key constituencies. They use counterfactuals in a haphazard and unscientific manner, and it is important to learn more about how they think about and employ counterfactuals to understand foreign policy.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document