Long-term ground movement prediction by Monte Carlo simulation

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark J. Carlotto
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Ground Movement ◽  
Movement Prediction

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach with Ordinal Optimization Based STATCOM Installation Strategy for Transmission System Loading Margin Enhancement

2014 ◽  
Vol 540 ◽  
pp. 376-380
Author(s):  
Ya Chin Chang ◽  
Sung Ling Chen ◽  
Chih Teng Hung
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Transmission System ◽  
Ordinal Optimization ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Static Synchronous Compensator ◽  
Crude Model

The power system loading margin enhancement problem to determine an optimal Static Synchronous Compensator (STATCOM) installation can be formulated as a mixed discrete-continuous nonlinear optimization problem (MDCP). In the paper, long-term efficiency of STATCOM installation to enhance transmission system loading margin (LM) is evaluated using a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) procedure with an Ordinal Optimization (OO) based STATCOM installation strategy to solve the MDCP. First under each N-1 contingency with bigger risk index (RI) value, the crude model is used to estimate the rough solution for each candidate, and then the exact method is used to a smaller set to determine the good enough solutions. Obtained from the union of the respective good enough solutions for all considered contingencies, the scheme with the smallest number of STATCOM units enabling the network to provide required average LM is recommended.

scholarly journals SEQUENTIAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING UNDER EXTREME CASH FL OW SITUATIONS: EVIDENCE USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 877-900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenqing Zhang ◽  
Prasad Padmanabhan ◽  
Chia-Hsing Huang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Value Analysis

Uncertainty influences a decision maker's choices when making sequential capital investment decisions. With the possibility of extremely negative cash inflows, firms may need to curtail operations significantly. Traditional Net Present Value analysis does not allow for efficient management of these problems. In addition, firm managers may behave irrationally by accepting negative Net Present Value projects in the short term. This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation based model to provide policy insights on how to incorporate extreme cash flows and manager irrationality scenarios into the capital budgeting process. This paper presents evidence that firms with irrational managers and experiencing extremely negative cash flows may, under certain conditions, reap long term rewards associated with the acceptance of negative Net Present Value projects in the short term. These benefits are largest if cost ratios (discount rates) are small, or investment horizons are high. We argue that acceptance of short term negative Net Present Value projects implies the purchase of a long term real option which can generate positive long term cash flows under certain conditions.

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