The long-term variations of ozone, UV-radiation and temperature in tropostratosphere and their connection with solar variability

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. A. Karimov ◽  
R. D. Gainutdinova
2004 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 1473-1485 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. W. Krzyscin ◽  
K. Eerme ◽  
M. Janouch

Abstract. The daily doses of the erythemally weighted UV radiation are reconstructed for three sites in Central Europe: Belsk-Poland (1966–2001), Hradec Kralove-Czech Republic (1964–2001), and Tõravere-Estonia (1967–2001) to discuss the UV climatology and the long-term changes of the UV-B radiation since the mid 1960s. Various reconstruction models are examined: a purely statistical model based on the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) methodology, and a hybrid model combining radiative transfer model calculations with empirical estimates of the cloud effects on the UV radiation. Modeled long-term variations of the surface UV doses appear to be in a reasonable agreement with the observed ones. A simple quality control procedure is proposed to check the homogeneity of the biometer and pyranometer data. The models are verified using the results of UV observations carried out at Belsk since 1976. MARS provides the best estimates of the UV doses, giving a mean difference between the modeled and observed monthly means equal to 0.6±2.5%. The basic findings are: similar climatological forcing by clouds for all considered stations (~30% reduction in the surface UV), long-term variations in UV monthly doses having the same temporal pattern for all stations with extreme low monthly values (~5% below overall mean level) at the end of the 1970s and extreme high monthly values (~5% above overall mean level) in the mid 1990s, regional peculiarities in the cloud long-term forcing sometimes leading to extended periods with elevated UV doses, recent stabilization of the ozone induced UV long-term changes being a response to a trendless tendency of total ozone since the mid 1990s. In the case of the slowdown of the total ozone trend over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes it seems that clouds will appear as the most important modulator of the UV radiation both in long- and short-time scales over next decades. Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (biospheric-atmosphere interaction) – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology; radiative processes)


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Mayboroda ◽  
Sergey I. Kazakov ◽  
Vitaliya Metik-Diyunova ◽  
Alexander Boguslavsky

In this paper I review both the history of solar observations in ancient China and recent researches on solar variability. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part I describe Sun worship and the early observations of solar phenomena. In the second part I concentrate on sunspot observations and improving the catalogue of naked-eye sunspot records. In the third part I discuss long-term variations of solar activity by using historical sunspot records over 2000 years. The 210-year cycle, which has the largest significance in the power spectrum, may have an important influence on the forecasting of the next cycle (no. 22).


Boreas ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zoltán Püspöki ◽  
Philip Leonard Gibbard ◽  
Annamária Nádor ◽  
Edit Thamó‐Bozsó ◽  
Pál Sümegi ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 270 ◽  
pp. 116285
Author(s):  
Lewei Zeng ◽  
Hai Guo ◽  
Xiaopu Lyu ◽  
Beining Zhou ◽  
Zhenhao Ling ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 295-302
Author(s):  
Chuandong Zhu ◽  
Wei Zhan ◽  
Jinzhao Liu ◽  
Ming Chen

AbstractThe mixture effect of the long-term variations is a main challenge in single channel singular spectrum analysis (SSA) for the reconstruction of the annual signal from GRACE data. In this paper, a nonlinear long-term variations deduction method is used to improve the accuracy of annual signal reconstructed from GRACE data using SSA. Our method can identify and eliminate the nonlinear long-term variations of the equivalent water height time series recovered from GRACE. Therefore the mixture effect of the long-term variations can be avoided in the annual modes of SSA. For the global terrestrial water recovered from GRACE, the peak to peak value of the annual signal is between 1.4 cm and 126.9 cm, with an average of 11.7 cm. After the long-term and the annual term have been deducted, the standard deviation of residual time series is between 0.9 cm and 9.9 cm, with an average of 2.1 cm. Compared with the traditional least squares fitting method, our method can reflect the dynamic change of the annual signal in global terrestrial water, more accurately with an uncertainty of between 0.3 cm and 2.9 cm.


2017 ◽  
Vol 598 ◽  
pp. 657-668 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Sánchez-Montero ◽  
C. Alén-Cordero ◽  
P.L. López-Espí ◽  
J.M. Rigelsford ◽  
F. Aguilera-Benavente ◽  
...  

Solar Physics ◽  
1994 ◽  
Vol 152 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judit M. Pap ◽  
Richard C. Willson ◽  
Claus Fr�hlich ◽  
Richard F. Donnelly ◽  
Larry Puga

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