Roughness/error trade-offs in neural network time series models

1997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven C. Gustafson ◽  
Gordon R. Little ◽  
John S. Loomis ◽  
Theresa A. Tuthill
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Network Time

scholarly journals Fitting Conventional Neural Network Time Series Models on Sand Price Indices Dataset

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.15) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Nor Azura Md Ghani ◽  
Saadi Bin Ahmad Kamaruddin ◽  
Ismail Musirin ◽  
Hishamuddin Hashim
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
The Other ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Price Indices ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Error Measures ◽  
Network Time ◽  
Hidden Nodes

This result-based paper discusses on the best aftereffects of both fitted BPNN-NAR and BPNN-NARMA on MCCI Sand dataset regarding distinctive error measures. This exploration examine the outcomes as far as the execution of the fitted forecasting models by every arrangement of input lags and error lags utilized, the execution of the fitted anticipating models by various hidden nodes utilized, the execution of the fitted estimating models when joining both inputs and hidden nodes, the consistency of error measures utilized for the fitted determining models, and in addition the general best fitted estimating models for Malaysian sand price indices dataset. In this examination, Malaysian sand price indices monthly data from January 1980 to December 2013 were adapted. The examination of BPNN-NAR on Malaysian sand data shows that insufficient or inadequate combination of input and error lags lead to greater RMSE. Correspondingly, the number of input lags for BPNN-NAR, as well as the number of input and error lags for BPNN-NARMA really have direct effect to the models’ performances. The higher or the lesser hidden nodes to the input lags, the higher the network’s RMSE. On the other hand, the higher the input lags lead to the higher network’s RMSE.  

scholarly journals System for Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Using Time-Series and Neural Networks Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Mostafa Abotaleb ◽  
Tatiana Makarovskikh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Third ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
R Programming

COVID-19 is one of the biggest challenges that countries face at the present time, as infections and deaths change daily and because this pandemic has a dynamic spread. Our paper considers two tasks. The first one is to develop a system for modeling COVID-19 based on time-series models due to their accuracy in forecasting COVID-19 cases. We developed an “Epidemic. TA” system using R programming for modeling and forecasting COVID-19 cases. This system contains linear (ARIMA and Holt’s model) and non-linear (BATS, TBATS, and SIR) time-series models and neural network auto-regressive models (NNAR), which allows us to obtain the most accurate forecasts of infections, deaths, and vaccination cases. The second task is the implementation of our system to forecast the risk of the third wave of infections in the Russian Federation.

A Novel Intuitionistic Fuzzy Time Series Method Based on Bootstrapped Combined Pi-Sigma Artificial Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 01 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eren Bas ◽  
Erol Egrioglu ◽  
Emine Kölemen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Time Series Method ◽  
Artificial Neural

Background: Intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting methods have been started to solve the forecasting problems in the literature. Intuitionistic fuzzy time series methods use both membership and non-membership values as auxiliary variables in their models. Because intuitionistic fuzzy sets take into consideration the hesitation margin and so the intuitionistic fuzzy time series models use more information than fuzzy time series models. The background of this study is about intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Objective: The study aims to propose a novel intuitionistic fuzzy time series method. It is expected that the proposed method will produce better forecasts than some selected benchmarks. Method: The proposed method uses bootstrapped combined Pi-Sigma artificial neural network and intuitionistic fuzzy c-means. The combined Pi-Sigma artificial neural network is proposed to model the intuitionistic fuzzy relations. Results and Conclusion: The proposed method is applied to different sets of SP&500 stock exchange time series. The proposed method can provide more accurate forecasts than established benchmarks for the SP&500 stock exchange time series. The most important contribution of the proposed method is that it creates statistical inference: probabilistic forecasting, confidence intervals and the empirical distribution of the forecasts. Moreover, the proposed method is better than the selected benchmarks for the SP&500 data set.

Time Series Forecasting of Tunnel Surrounding Rock Displacement

2011 ◽  
Vol 261-263 ◽  
pp. 1789-1793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guang Xiang Mao ◽  
Yuan You Xia ◽  
Ling Wei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Surrounding Rock ◽  
Tunnel Construction ◽  
Rock Stress ◽  
Rock Types ◽  
Network Time ◽  
Tunnel Depth

In the process of tunnel construction, because the rock stress redistribute, the vault and the two groups will generate displacement constantly. This paper adopts the genetic algorithm to optimize the weight and threshold of BP neural network, taking the tunnel depth, rock types and part measured values of displacement as input parameters to construct a neural network time series prediction model of tunnel surrounding rock displacement. The method proposed in the paper has been applied in the Ma Tou Tang tunnel construction successfully, and the results show that the model can predict the displacement of the surrounding rock quickly and accurately.

scholarly journals Comparing classic time series models and the LSTM recurrent neural network: An application to S&P 500 stocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-148
Author(s):  
J. Oliver Muncharaz
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
The Creation

In the financial literature, there is great interest in the prediction of stock prices. Stock prediction is necessary for the creation of different investment strategies, both speculative and hedging ones. The application of neural networks has involved a change in the creation of predictive models. In this paper, we analyze the capacity of recurrent neural networks, in particular the long short-term recurrent neural network (LSTM) as opposed to classic time series models such as the Exponential Smooth Time Series (ETS) and the Arima model (ARIMA). These models have been estimated for 284 stocks from the S&P 500 stock market index, comparing the MAE obtained from their predictions. The results obtained confirm a significant reduction in prediction errors when LSTM is applied. These results are consistent with other similar studies applied to stocks included in other stock market indices, as well as other financial assets such as exchange rates.

scholarly journals Forecasting CO2 Emissions Due To Electricity Power Generation In Bahrain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Redha Qader ◽  
Shahnawaz Khan ◽  
Mustafa Kamal ◽  
Muhammad Usman ◽  
Mohammad Haseeb
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Network Time ◽  
Electricity Power ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive Model ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

Abstract Global warming is one of the biggest challenges among the leaders and scientists from developed and developing countries. Rapid industrialization and urbanization have given the boost to the amount of greenhouse gases’ emission. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a significant of greenhouse gases and is the major contributing factor for global warming. CO2 emissions concentrations in the atmosphere have increased by 47% over the past 170 years due to human activities. As per Doha amendment of the Kyoto protocol in 2012, the target for maximum CO2 emission per capita for Bahrain was set to 20.96 metric ton for 2020. However, the current amount of CO2 emission per capita is 21.64 metric ton as of 2019. This research has applied multiple methods such as neural network time series nonlinear autoregressive, Gaussian Process Regression and Holt’s methods for CO2 emission forecasting. It attempts to forecast the CO2 emission of Bahrain. These methods are evaluated for performance. Neural network model has the RMSE of merely 0.206 while the GPR-RQ model has RMSE of 1.0171 and Holt’s method has RMSE of 1.4096. Therefore, it can be concluded that neural network time series nonlinear autoregressive model has performed better for forecasting the CO2 emission of Bahrain.

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