Battlespace: using AI to understand friendly vs. hostile decision dynamics in MDO

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Hare ◽  
Berend C. Rinderspacher ◽  
Sue E. Kase ◽  
Simon M. Su ◽  
Chou P. Hung
Keyword(s):  
Decision Dynamics

A Decision Dynamics Model of Cost Control and Corporate Governance

2015 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 397-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. M. Abdullah ◽  
Md. Wahid Murad ◽  
Md. Mahadi Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Cost Control ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Decision Dynamics

scholarly journals Preference-Based Serial Decision Dynamics: Your First Sushi Reveals Your Eating Order at the Sushi Table

PLoS ONE ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. e96653 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaeseung Jeong ◽  
Youngmin Oh ◽  
Miriam Chun ◽  
Jerald D. Kralik
Keyword(s):  
Decision Dynamics

scholarly journals Continuous track paths reveal additive evidence integration in multistep decision making

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (40) ◽  
pp. 10618-10623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristian Buc Calderon ◽  
Myrtille Dewulf ◽  
Wim Gevers ◽  
Tom Verguts
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Daily Life ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Reaching Task ◽  
Decision Dynamics ◽  
Probabilistic Evidence ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
Initial Dip ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
Evidence Integration

Multistep decision making pervades daily life, but its underlying mechanisms remain obscure. We distinguish four prominent models of multistep decision making, namely serial stage, hierarchical evidence integration, hierarchical leaky competing accumulation (HLCA), and probabilistic evidence integration (PEI). To empirically disentangle these models, we design a two-step reward-based decision paradigm and implement it in a reaching task experiment. In a first step, participants choose between two potential upcoming choices, each associated with two rewards. In a second step, participants choose between the two rewards selected in the first step. Strikingly, as predicted by the HLCA and PEI models, the first-step decision dynamics were initially biased toward the choice representing the highest sum/mean before being redirected toward the choice representing the maximal reward (i.e., initial dip). Only HLCA and PEI predicted this initial dip, suggesting that first-step decision dynamics depend on additive integration of competing second-step choices. Our data suggest that potential future outcomes are progressively unraveled during multistep decision making.

scholarly journals Operational decision-making for cyber operations: In Search of a Model

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Smeets ◽  
JD Work
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Complex Dynamics ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Black Scholes Model ◽  
Black Scholes ◽  
Unique Nature ◽  
Operational Decision Making ◽  
Decision Dynamics ◽  
Mating Choice ◽  
Cyber Conflict

The decision-making behind cyber operations is complex. Dynamics around issues such as cyber arsenal management, target assessment, and the timing of dropping a destructive payload are still ill-understood. Yet, limited published research has thus far explored formal theoretic constructs for better understanding decisionmaking in cyber operations. Multiple models may offer utility to understand and explain the courses of action through which state cyber missions are executed, including conduct or restraint of cyber effects operations against target systems and networks. This paper evaluates four models - surprise model, duelist model, mating- choice model, and the Black-Scholes model. Each model offers specific advantages, and suffers characteristic drawbacks; and while these models differ in application and complexity each may provide insights into how the unique nature of cyber operations impact the decision dynamics of cyber conflict.

scholarly journals Human VMPFC encodes early signatures of confidence in perceptual decisions

eLife ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabina Gherman ◽  
Marios G. Philiastides
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Adaptive Behaviour ◽  
Single Trial ◽  
Perceptual Decision Making ◽  
Confidence Measure ◽  
Judgment Accuracy ◽  
Direction Discrimination ◽  
Neural Representations ◽  
Decision Dynamics

Choice confidence, an individual’s internal estimate of judgment accuracy, plays a critical role in adaptive behaviour, yet its neural representations during decision formation remain underexplored. Here, we recorded simultaneous EEG-fMRI while participants performed a direction discrimination task and rated their confidence on each trial. Using multivariate single-trial discriminant analysis of the EEG, we identified a stimulus-independent component encoding confidence, which appeared prior to subjects’ explicit choice and confidence report, and was consistent with a confidence measure predicted by an accumulation-to-bound model of decision-making. Importantly, trial-to-trial variability in this electrophysiologically-derived confidence signal was uniquely associated with fMRI responses in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC), a region not typically associated with confidence for perceptual decisions. Furthermore, activity in the VMPFC was functionally coupled with regions of the frontal cortex linked to perceptual decision-making and metacognition. Our results suggest that the VMPFC holds an early confidence representation arising from decision dynamics, preceding and potentially informing metacognitive evaluation.

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