The impact of large-scale atmospheric circulation on cyclogenesis in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region

Author(s):  
Tatyana Bayankina ◽  
Tatiana E. Danova
2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 2235-2262
Author(s):  
E. Joigneaux ◽  
P. Albéric ◽  
H. Pauwels ◽  
C. Pagé ◽  
L. Terray ◽  
...  

Abstract. Under certain hydrological conditions it is possible for spring flow in karst systems to be reversed. When this occurs, the resulting invasion by surface water, i.e. the backflooding, represents a serious threat to groundwater quality because the surface water could well be contaminated. Here we examine the possible impact of future climate change on the occurrences of backflooding in a specific karst system, having first established the occurrence of such events in the selected study area over the past 40 yr. It would appear that backflooding has been more frequent since the 1980s, and that it is apparently linked to river flow variability on the pluri-annual scale. The avenue that we adopt here for studying recent and future variations of these events is based on a downscaling algorithm relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation spatial patterns. The large-scale atmospheric circulation is viewed as a set of quasi-stationary and recurrent states, called weather types, and its variability as the transition between them. Based on a set of climate model projections, simulated changes in weather-type occurrence for the end of the century suggests that backflooding events can be expected to decrease in 2075–2099. If such is the case, then the potential risk for groundwater quality in the area will be greatly reduced compared to the current situation. Finally, our results also show the potential interest of the weather-type based downscaling approach for examining the impact of climate change on hydrological systems.


2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 2459-2470 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Joigneaux ◽  
P. Albéric ◽  
H. Pauwels ◽  
C. Pagé ◽  
L. Terray ◽  
...  

Abstract. Under certain hydrological conditions it is possible for spring flow in karst systems to be reversed. When this occurs, the resulting invasion by surface water, i.e. the backflooding, represents a serious threat to groundwater quality because the surface water could well be contaminated. Here we examine the possible impact of future climate change on the occurrences of backflooding in a specific karst system, having first established the occurrence of such events in the selected study area over the past 40 years. It would appear that backflooding has been more frequent since the 1980s, and that it is apparently linked to river flow variability on the pluri-annual scale. The avenue that we adopt here for studying recent and future variations of these events is based on a downscaling algorithm relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation spatial patterns. The large-scale atmospheric circulation is viewed as a set of quasi-stationary and recurrent states, called weather types, and its variability as the transition between them. Based on a set of climate model projections, simulated changes in weather-type occurrence for the end of the century suggests that backflooding events can be expected to decrease in 2075–2099. If such is the case, then the potential risk for groundwater quality in the area will be greatly reduced compared to the current situation. Finally, our results also show the potential interest of the weather-type based downscaling approach for examining the impact of climate change on hydrological systems.


Author(s):  
Lorenzo Minola ◽  
Heather Reese ◽  
Hui‐Wen Lai ◽  
Cesar Azorin‐Molina ◽  
Jose A. Guijarro ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Vol 239 ◽  
pp. 86-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Dorado-Liñán ◽  
Eduardo Zorita ◽  
Elisabet Martínez-Sancho ◽  
Guillermo Gea-Izquierdo ◽  
Alfredo Di Filippo ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirna Matov ◽  
Elisaveta Peneva

<p>The Black Sea is a large deep water basin on the border between European and Asian continents lying in the continental mid-latitude climate zone. Due to the prevailing westerlies during the year its climatic influence is better pronounced in the eastern border areas, however the sea is an important climatic factor for all borderline countries (Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia and Turkey). The open plane in north direction enables the propagation of the Siberian High influence in winter. From the other side, the Mediterranean Sea influence is significant through the Mediterranean cyclones passing frequently the area.</p><p>The impact of the Black Sea on the surrounding area is analyzed combining data from several different sources: atmospheric data from climate reanalysis and regular synoptic measurements in coastal meteorological stations, marine observations from in situ autonomous profilers and satellite data on ice coverage in winter time. The aim is to investigate the interannual-to-decadal variability of the thermal regime and the exchange of heat between atmosphere and sea. In addition, the relation to the intensity of the main climate centers of action (Siberian High and Mediterranean Low) is analyzed. The winter severity is defined in the different zones around the sea through the number of cold days and the connection with the sea temperature is studied.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document