Agent based modeling simulation of decision making with uncertainty

Author(s):  
Adrienne J. Raglin ◽  
Somiya Metu

The ODD Protocol has become a standard for documenting and describing agent based models. The protocol is organized around three main elements, from which the ODD acronym originates: Overview, Design concepts, and Details. This chapter is organized around these primary elements and further broken down into seven sub-elements to provide a clear purpose and understanding of the model simulation. The sub-elements are: Purpose, State Variables and Scales, Process Overview and Scheduling, Design Concepts, Initialization, Input, and Sub-models. The model presented is a proto-agent behavioral model and is utilized in an agent based modeling simulation to help identify possible emergent behavioral outcomes of the populations in the area of interest. By varying the rules governing the interactions of the multinational and incumbent government proto-agents, different strategies can be identified for increasing the effectiveness of those proto-agents and the utilization of resources.


Author(s):  
Tai-Tuck Yu ◽  
James P. Scanlan ◽  
Richard M. Crowder ◽  
Gary B. Wills

Discrete-event modeling has long been used for logistics and scheduling problems, while multi-agent modeling closely matches human decision-making process. In this paper, a metric-based comparison between the traditional discrete-event and the emerging agent-based modeling approaches is reported. The case study involved the implementation of two functionally identical models based on a realistic, nontrivial, civil aircraft gas turbine global repair operation. The size, structural complexity, and coupling metrics from the two models were used to gauge the benefits and drawbacks of each modeling paradigm. The agent-based model was significantly better than the discrete-event model in terms of execution times, scalability, understandability, modifiability, and structural flexibility. In contrast, and importantly in an engineering context, the discrete-event model guaranteed predictable and repeatable results and was comparatively easy to test because of its single-threaded operation. However, neither modeling approach on its own possesses all these characteristics nor can each handle the wide range of resolutions and scales frequently encountered in problems exemplified by the case study scenario. It is recognized that agent-based modeling can emulate high-level human decision-making and communication closely while discrete-event modeling provides a good fit for low-level sequential processes such as those found in manufacturing and logistics.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document