scholarly journals Method of evaluating the level of confidence based on metrological risks for determining the coverage factor in the concept of uncertainty

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waldemar Wójcik ◽  
Oleksandr Vasilevskyi ◽  
Volodymyr Didych ◽  
Anna Kravchenko ◽  
Maksym Yakovlev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coverage Factor ◽  
Level Of Confidence

scholarly journals Assessing the level of confidence for expressing extended uncertainty: a model based on control errors in the measurement of ion activity

ACTA IMEKO ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 199
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Vasilevskyi
Keyword(s):  
Coverage Factor ◽  
Measurement Result ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Ion Activity ◽  
Extended Uncertainty

<p>A method for estimating the level of confidence when determining the coverage factor based on control errors is proposed, using the example of measurements of ion activity. Using information on tolerances and uncertainty, it is possible to establish a reasonable interval around the measurement result, within which most of the values that can be justified are assigned to the measured value.</p>

Sistem Pakar Mendeteksi Penyakit Tanaman Kelapa Sawit Menggunakan Metode Forward Chaining

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 444
Author(s):  
Dimas Satria ◽  
Poningsih Poningsih ◽  
Widodo Saputra
Keyword(s):  
Expert System ◽  
Programming Languages ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Oil Palm ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Plant Diseases ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Forward Chaining ◽  
Web Programming ◽  
Level Of Confidence

The purpose of this paper is to create an expert system to detect oil palm plant diseases in order to help farmers / companies in providing accurate information about the diseases of oil palm plants and how to overcome them and to help reduce the risk of decreasing palm oil production. This system is designed to mimic the expertise of an expert who is able to detect diseases that attack oil palm plants. The method used is forward chaining that is starting from a set of data and proving a fact by describing the level of confidence and uncertainty found in a hypothesis. The results of this study are to diagnose diseases of oil palm plants and their computerization using web programming languages.

Smart Estimation Ver-H.1.0

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sigit Haryadi
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Regression Equation ◽  
Weight Factor ◽  
The Past ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Value ◽  
The Difference

We cannot be sure exactly what will happen, we can only estimate by using a particular method, where each method must have the formula to create a regression equation and a formula to calculate the confidence level of the estimated value. This paper conveys a method of estimating the future values, in which the formula for creating a regression equation is based on the assumption that the future value will depend on the difference of the past values divided by a weight factor which corresponding to the time span to the present, and the formula for calculating the level of confidence is to use "the Haryadi Index". The advantage of this method is to remain accurate regardless of the sample size and may ignore the past value that is considered irrelevant.

CONSUMER DECISION MODEL (CDM) ANALYSIS OF EFFECTIVENESS VIDEOTRON ADVERTISING SERVED IN SURAKARTA

ProBank ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-81
Author(s):  
Muhammad Khoiruman ◽  
Ambar Warniati
Keyword(s):  
Purchase Intention ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Scientific Publications ◽  
Consumer Decision ◽  
Intention To Purchase ◽  
Brand Recognition ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
The Government

This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of Videotron media ads served in Surakarta using the Consumer Decision Model (CDM) Analysis. Viewed ad serving costs in videtron large enough it is necessary to study the effectiveness of the ads served on videtron. The model that is used in measuring the effectiveness of an ad in this research is the Consumer Decision Model (CDM). The research objective was to determine the effect the message of the ad (Information), branding (Brand Recognition), the formation of an attitude (Attitude), the level of confidence in the message (Confidence), and intention to purchase (Intention) market target after seeing ad impressions through Videotron. The study population is a society in Surakarta with sampling method is purposive sampling of 200 respondents Data analysis technique using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) which resulted in the conclusion that the message of the ad (Information) positive effect but not significant with branding (Brand Recognition), formation attitude (attitude), and the level of confidence in the message (confidence). Brand recognition is positive and significant impact on the confidence and attitude while confidence and attitude positive and significant effect on the intention to purchase (Intention) market target after seeing ad impressions through Videotron. Outcomes of this study are: enrichment of teaching materials, especially marketing management, Scientific publications (national journals) and an input for an advertiser, the advertising company and the Government of Surakarta about the effectiveness of the ads served through Videotron so they can be a policy in the future.Keywords: Videotron, advertising, Consumer Decision Model, Information, Brand Recognition, Attitude, Confidence, and Intention

scholarly journals The Evolution of Communicating the Uncertainty of Climate Change to Policymakers: A Study of IPCC Synthesis Reports

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2466
Author(s):  
Tomas Molina ◽  
Ernest Abadal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Call To Action ◽  
The Public ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Ipcc Report ◽  
Degree Of Certainty ◽  
History Of ◽  
Tackle Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports on climate change have served to alert both the public and policymakers about the scope of the predicted changes and the effects they would have on natural and economic systems. The first IPCC report was published in 1990, since which time a further four have been produced. The aim of this study was to conduct a content analysis of the IPCC Summaries for Policymakers in order to determine the degree of certainty associated with the statements they contain. For each of the reports we analyzed all statements containing expressions indicating the corresponding level of confidence. The aggregated results show a shift over time towards higher certainty levels, implying a “Call to action” (from 32.8% of statements in IPCC2 to 70.2% in IPCC5). With regard to the international agreements drawn up to tackle climate change, the growing level of confidence expressed in the IPCC Summaries for Policymakers reports might have been a relevant factor in the history of decision making.

scholarly journals Factors critical to implementation success of cleaner cooking interventions in low-income and middle-income countries: protocol for an umbrella review

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. e041821
Author(s):  
Esther A Boudewijns ◽  
Debbie Vermond ◽  
Rianne M J J van der Kleij ◽  
Niels H Chavannes ◽  
Onno C P van Schayck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solid Fuel ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Ethical Review ◽  
Umbrella Review ◽  
Implementation Success ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Clean Fuels

IntroductionOver a third of the world’s population relies on solid fuels as their primary energy source. These fuels have damaging effects on health, air quality and forest resources. Interventions to promote access to cleaner solid fuel cookstoves and clean fuels have existed for decades. However, the adoption by local communities has largely failed, which led to a waste of resources and suboptimal outcomes. Therefore, the objective of this umbrella review is to identify factors that determine implementation success for cleaner cooking interventions in low-resource settings and weigh their level of confidence in the evidence.Methods and analysisWe identified systematic and narrative reviews examining factors that influence the acquisition, initial adoption or sustained use of cleaner solid fuel cookstoves and clean fuels at any scale by a literature search in PubMed, Embase, Global Health Database, Cochrane, PsycINFO, Emcare, Web of Science and CINAHL, without date or language restrictions. The search was conducted on 23 October 2017 and updated on 10 July 2019. Reviews based on qualitative, quantitative or mixed-methods studies were included and will be appraised using the Meta Quality Appraisal Tool combined with the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews. Data will be extracted and factors affecting implementation will be coded using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation-Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative Research tool will be used to determine the level of confidence in the coded factors. Two researchers will independently conduct these steps.Ethics and disseminationThis umbrella review does not require the approval of an ethical review board. Study results will be published in an international peer-reviewed journal. The outcomes will be converted into two practical tools: one for cleaner solid fuel cookstoves and one for clean fuels. These tools can guide the development of evidence-based implementation strategies for cleaner cooking interventions in low-income and middle-income countries to improve implementation success. These tools should be pilot-tested and promoted among regional and global initiatives.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42018088687.

scholarly journals Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciano Raso ◽  
Jan Kwakkel ◽  
Jos Timmermans
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
Misclassification Errors ◽  
The Future ◽  
Adaptive Action ◽  
The Face

Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive pathways, a monitoring system collects the evidence required for activating the next adaptive action. This monitoring system is made of signposts and triggers. Signposts are indicators that track the performance of the pathway. When signposts reach pre-specified trigger values, the next action on the pathway is implemented. The effectiveness of the monitoring system is pivotal to the success of adaptive policy pathways, therefore the decision-makers would like to have sufficient confidence about the future capacity to adapt on time. “On time” means activating the next action on a pathway neither so early that it incurs unnecessary costs, nor so late that it incurs avoidable damages. In this paper, we show how mapping the relations between triggers and the probability of misclassification errors inform the level of confidence that a monitoring system for adaptive policy pathways can provide. Specifically, we present the “trigger-probability” mapping and the “trigger-consequences” mappings. The former mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the level of confidence regarding whether change occurs and adaptation is needed. The latter mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the consequences of misclassification errors for both adapting the policy or not. In a case study, we illustrate how these mappings can be used to test the effectiveness of a monitoring system, and how they can be integrated into the process of designing an adaptive policy.

Learning Disabled Students' Spontaneous Use of Test-Taking Skills on Reading Achievement Tests

1985 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 205-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas E. Scruggs ◽  
Karla Bennion ◽  
Steven Lifson
Keyword(s):  
Reading Achievement ◽  
Achievement Tests ◽  
Learning Disabled ◽  
Achievement Test ◽  
Strategy Use ◽  
Disabled Students ◽  
Test Items ◽  
Test Taking ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Resource Rooms

The present investigation was undertaken to identify the type of strategies learning disabled (LD) students employ on standardized, group-administered achievement test items. Of particular interest was level of strategy effectiveness and possible differences in strategy use between LD and nondisabled students. Students attending resource rooms and regular third-grade classes were administered items from reading achievement tests and interviewed concerning the strategies they had employed in answering the questions and their level of confidence in each answer. Results indicated that (a) LD students were less likely to report use of appropriate strategies on inferential questions, (b) LD students were less likely to attend carefully to specific format demands, and (c) LD students reported inappropriately high levels of confidence.

Evaluation of Heart Murmurs

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1991 ◽  
Vol 87 (6) ◽  
pp. 952-953
Author(s):  
JOHN F. SMYTHE ◽  
OTTO H. P. TEIXEIRA ◽  
PETER VLAD ◽  
PIERRE PAUL DEMERS ◽  
WILLIAM FELDMAN
Keyword(s):  
Heart Disease ◽  
Family Physician ◽  
Specific Activity ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Laboratory Studies ◽  
Parental Concerns ◽  
Heart Murmurs ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Organic Heart Disease

In Reply.— We find that when the patient has not been diagnosed as having organic heart disease, the authority of the cardiologist is challenged rarely, because most people accept the concept that those who dedicate full time to a specific activity (the cardiologist) have a higher level of confidence than those who do not (family physician). Obviously, the problem is more complicated when there is need to delabel a child previously diagnosed incorrectly. We find then that laboratory studies are helpful to alleviate unnecessary but persistent parental concerns.

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