Use of Structural Reliability Analysis for Uprating Above Ground Installations

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Francis ◽  
C. S. Jandu ◽  
M. A. McCallum
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Stress Concentrations ◽  
Safe Operation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Design Factors ◽  
Increased Pressure

In support of an extensive programme to increase the operating pressure of the UK National Transmission System (NTS) Advantica Technologies Limited have developed a structural reliability based methodology which is used to demonstrate the safe operation of Above Ground Installations (AGIs) at increased pressure levels. The approach is based on Advantica’s methodology for demonstrating the safe operation of pipeline sections at high design factors. It incorporates the effects of stress concentrations occurring at Tees and bends within complex pipework systems, and addresses the credible failure modes, including shakedown, corrosion and fatigue, taking account of pressure and thermal loadings. Particular attention is given to the time-dependent nature of the failure modes and the mitigating effect of the pre-service hydrostatic test and weld inspections is included.

Pipeline Integrity Reliability Analysis Levels

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sherif Hassanien ◽  
Len Leblanc ◽  
Javier Cuervo ◽  
Karmun Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Metal Loss ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Reliability Engineering ◽  
Reliability Methods ◽  
Types Of Information

Reliability engineering science is a mature discipline that has been used extensively in industries such as aviation, nuclear energy, automobiles, and structures. The application of reliability principles (especially structural reliability) in oil and gas transmission pipelines is still an active area of development. The advent of high resolution in-line inspections tools (ILI) facilitates a formal application/utilization of reliability methods in pipeline integrity in order to safely manage deformation, metal loss, and crack threats. At the same time, the massive amount of ILI data, their associated uncertainties, and the availability/accuracy of failure prediction models present a challenge for operators to effectively implement the use of reliability analysis to check the safety of integrity programs within available timeframes. On the other hand, approximate reliability techniques may affect the analysis in terms of both accuracy and precision. In this paper, a Pipeline Integrity Reliability Analysis (PIRA) approach is presented where the sophistication of the reliability analysis is staged into three levels: PIRA levels I, II and III. The three PIRA levels correspond to different representations of integrity uncertainties, uses of available validated/calibrated data, uses of statistical models for operating pressure and resistance random variables, implementation of reliability methods, and consideration of failure modes. Moreover, PIRA levels allow for improved integration of reliability analysis with the existing timelines/stages of traditional integrity programs, such that integrity data are updated as the integrity program progresses. The proposed integrity reliability approach allows for the delivery of safety checks leveraging all types of information available at any given point in time. In addition, the approach provides a full understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each PIRA level. Pipeline corrosion case studies are provided herein to illustrate how the PIRA Levels can be applied to integrity programs.

scholarly journals Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Beams Subjected to Uniform and Pitting Corrosion and Brittle Fracture

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 1820
Author(s):  
Mohamed El Amine Ben Seghier ◽  
Behrooz Keshtegar ◽  
Hussam Mahmoud
Keyword(s):  
Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Brittle Fracture ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Pitting Corrosion ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
State Function ◽  
Rc Beams ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
Reliability Method

Reinforced concrete (RC) beams are basic elements used in the construction of various structures and infrastructural systems. When exposed to harsh environmental conditions, the integrity of RC beams could be compromised as a result of various deterioration mechanisms. One of the most common deterioration mechanisms is the formation of different types of corrosion in the steel reinforcements of the beams, which could impact the overall reliability of the beam. Existing classical reliability analysis methods have shown unstable results when used for the assessment of highly nonlinear problems, such as corroded RC beams. To that end, the main purpose of this paper is to explore the use of a structural reliability method for the multi-state assessment of corroded RC beams. To do so, an improved reliability method, namely the three-term conjugate map (TCM) based on the first order reliability method (FORM), is used. The application of the TCM method to identify the multi-state failure of RC beams is validated against various well-known structural reliability-based FORM formulations. The limit state function (LSF) for corroded RC beams is formulated in accordance with two corrosion types, namely uniform and pitting corrosion, and with consideration of brittle fracture due to the pit-to-crack transition probability. The time-dependent reliability analyses conducted in this study are also used to assess the influence of various parameters on the resulting failure probability of the corroded beams. The results show that the nominal bar diameter, corrosion initiation rate, and the external loads have an important influence on the safety of these structures. In addition, the proposed method is shown to outperform other reliability-based FORM formulations in predicting the level of reliability in RC beams.

scholarly journals Dynamic Reliability Analysis of Corroded Pipeline Using Bayesian Network

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.35) ◽  
pp. 210
Author(s):  
Nurul Sa’aadah Sulaiman ◽  
Henry Tan
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Dynamic Reliability ◽  
Time Dynamic ◽  
Remaining Service Life ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Deterioration Process

Maintenance and integrity management of hydrocarbons pipelines face the challenges from uncertainties in the data available. This paper demonstrates a way for pipeline remaining service life prediction that integrates structural reliability analysis, accumulated corrosion knowledge, and inspection data on a sound mathematical foundation. Pipeline defects depth grows with time according to an empirical corrosion power law, and this is checked for leakage and rupture probability. The pipeline operating pressure is checked with the degraded failure pressure given by ASME B31G code for rupture likelihood. As corrosion process evolves with time, Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is employed to model the stochastic corrosion deterioration process. From the results obtained, the proposed DBN model for pipeline reliability is advanced compared with other traditional structural reliability method whereby the updating ability brings in more accurate prediction results of structural reliability. The comparisons show that the DBN model can achieve a realistic result similar to the conventional method, Monte Carlo Simulation with very minor discrepancy.

The Research on Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis for RC Structures Based on the Theory of Stochastic Processes

2011 ◽  
Vol 243-249 ◽  
pp. 5650-5655
Author(s):  
Cheng Yu Xia ◽  
Qing You Liu ◽  
Li Qin Qian
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Rc Structures ◽  
Calculating Method ◽  
Specific Analysis ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Compression Member ◽  
Strong Ability

This paper proposes a new calculating method for the reliability analysis of the time-varying structure，and applies the calculating method to optimize the design for the concrete structure . The RC compression member was taken as an example in the specific analysis in by the mean of resistance and structural reliability with time t. The results show that, this mode has a strong ability of analyzing adequately all kinds of random variant in procedure of structure failures.

Structural Reliability Analysis Method for Assessing the Fatigue Capacity of Subsea Wellhead Connectors

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Lorents Reinås ◽  
Anders Wormsen ◽  
Andreas Aardal ◽  
Per Gustafsson
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Fatigue Loading ◽  
Load Effect ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Capacity ◽  
Drilling Operations ◽  
Male Part ◽  
External Loads

Abstract Subsea Wellheads are the male part of an 18 3/4” bore connector used for connecting subsea components such as drilling BOP, XT or Workover systems equipped with a female counterpart — a wellhead connector. Subsea wellheads have an external locking profile for engaging a preloaded wellhead connector with matching internal profile. As such connection is made subsea, a metal-to-metal sealing is obtained, and a structural conduit is formed. The details of the subsea wellhead profile are specified by the wellhead user and the standardized H4 hub has a widespread use. In terms of well integrity, the wellhead connector is a barrier element during both well construction (drilling) activities and life of field (production). Due to the nature of subsea drilling operations, a wellhead connector will be subjected to external loads. Fatigue and plastic collapse due to overload are therefore two potential failure modes. These two failure modes are due to the cyclic nature of the loads and the potential for accidental and extreme single loads respectively. The safe load the wellhead connector can sustain without failure can be established by deterministic structural capacity methods. This paper outlines how a generic and probabilistic engineering method; Structural Reliability Analysis, can be applied to a subsea wellhead connector to estimate the probability of fatigue failure (PoF). As the wellhead connector is a mechanism consisting of a plurality of parts the load effect from cyclic external loads is influenced by uncertainty in friction, geometry and pre-load. Further, there is a inter dependence between these parameters that complicates the problem. In addition to these uncertainties, uncertainties in the fatigue loading itself (from rig and riser) is also accounted for. This paper presents results from applications of Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to a wellhead connector and provides experiences and learnings from this case work.

scholarly journals DEVELOPED PROBABILISTIC REDUCTION FACTORS FOR LOPHIRA ALATA (EKKI) TIMBER JOISTS SUBJECTED TO CREEP-RUPTURE

2016 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-44
Author(s):  
JM Kaura ◽  
A Lawan ◽  
AA Salihu
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Significant Loss ◽  
Creep Rupture ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Load Duration ◽  
Design Variables ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Load Carrying ◽  
Strength And Stiffness

Wood experiences a significant loss of strength and stiffness when loaded over period of time. This phenomenon is known as creep-rupture. Several models were developed for the estimation of the reduction of load carrying capacity of timber with time. In this paper, the results of time dependent structural reliability analysis of timber joist produced with Lophiraalata (Ekki) timber specie was presented. Three load duration models were considered in the study, namely: The Model proposed by Wood, Gerhards model, and Nielsen. The timber joist was designed in accordance with the Eurocode 5. The uncertainties in all the basic design variables were fully accommodated in the time dependent reliability analysis. The entire process was implemented using a developed MATLAB program employing First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Time dependent mathematical models for modification of safety index to account for the effect of load duration were proposed. The use of both Gerhards and Nielsen model, for the design of Lophiraalata timber members was recommended.  http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/njt.v36i1.6

Structural Reliability and Human Error of Reinforced-Concrete Building during Construction

2011 ◽  
Vol 368-373 ◽  
pp. 1365-1369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xue Xia Yuan ◽  
Wei Liang Jin
Keyword(s):  
Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Human Reliability ◽  
Human Reliability Analysis ◽  
Supporting System

In view of the significant failure modes of formwork-supporting system and reinforced- concrete member, the reliability analysis model of time-dependent system affected by human errors during the construction of typical multistory reinforced-concrete buildings was developed. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) method was applied to simulate the error rates and error magnitudes of the reinforced-concrete members and the formwork-supporting system, and human reliability models were developed, two cases for error-free case and error-included case were considered. Furthermore the check emphasis of formwork-supporting system was pointed during multistory building construction.

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