Probabilistic Design Load Method for the Northern Sea Route

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tõnis Tõns ◽  
Freeman Ralph ◽  
Sören Ehlers ◽  
Ian J. Jordaan
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Design ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Probabilistic Design ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
Northern Sea Route ◽  
Extreme Load ◽  
Ice Conditions

A probabilistic design method allows us to link statistical data from the operational area of the vessel with design loads providing the availability for more precise safety level assessment, which is important to ensure safe and sustainable ship transit in ice covered waters. Statistical design methods are well used for open water using spectral analysis. Wave induced loads are estimated by linking statistical load parameters to the sea state parameters. Statistical methods to estimate ice-induced loads are also available, however, current Polar Class rules are not considering probabilistic methods for determining ice-induced loads. This paper shows how developed probabilistic methods can be used for the design of ice going ships, especially for ships operating along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The method presented in this paper will combine available data from full-scale measurements performed in the Arctic with ice conditions defined using historical data from satellite sources. The full-scale measurements are used to develop the parent distribution, which forms the basis for the extreme load prediction based on the number of excepted interactions along the NSR. Satellite data from history will be used to model ice conditions, e.g. ice type and ice concentration, along the route.

Structural Response of Ice-Going Ships Using a Probabilistic Design Load Method

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boris Erceg ◽  
Freeman Ralph ◽  
Sören Ehlers ◽  
Ian Jordaan
Keyword(s):  
Scale Effects ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Structural Response ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Stiffened Panel ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
Design Load ◽  
Northern Sea Route ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Probabilistic Nature

Ships operating in ice-covered waters experience intense loads from ice features, particularly multiyear ice. Therefore, their structures have to be able to withstand these loads, making structural design paramount. Current formulations of ice class rules do not fully account for the probabilistic nature of ice loads, i.e. scale effects for local ice pressures captured in full-scale measurements. Furthermore, ice class rules do not consider route-specific ice conditions when calculating the design load, i.e. the exposure of the vessel to ice crushing determined by the number and duration of rams. An approach to arctic ship design based on probabilistic methods was developed by Jordaan and co-workers in 1993 and is described in this paper. The approach is used to estimate extreme design loads based on the annual interaction events and the design strategy (target exceedence criteria). The objective of this paper is to select an appropriate ice class for a vessel navigating along the northern sea route, and to compare the design requirements with those determined using the probabilistic approach based on measured data and expected exposure. Local hull pressures have been measured using the USCGC Polar Sea for a range of ice conditions including first year and multi-year ice. Impact conditions similar to those expected along the Northern Sea route were selected and corresponding pressurearea parameters used for input into the probabilistic approach discussed above. This paper will compare the design and response of an exemplary stiffened panel using the described approach to requirements given in Finnish Swedish Ice Class Rules. A case study structure will be analyzed using Finite Element Method for a chosen exposure scenario and target safety level.

scholarly journals Economics and politics of “old confrontation” in the New Arctic

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (4-2021) ◽  
pp. 7-20
Author(s):  
Asja A. Shchegol'kova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Spatial Development ◽  
Water Area ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Northern Sea Route ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Strategic Space ◽  
Arctic Policy ◽  
Economics And Politics

The modern Arctic is becoming the strategic space and area of competition of many powers, the arena of political confrontations between Arctic and non-Arctic states. Arctic research has moved from the sphere of science to the sphere of geopolitics and geoeconomics and is of strategic importance in the system of national security. Climatic fluctuations in the Arctic have increased the availability of hydrocarbon, biological and other resources, and improved ice conditions in the water area of the Northern Sea Route. The study analyzes the Arctic policy of Western European and North American countries in the conditions of the “New Arctic”. An overview of strategic documents on ensuring the spatial development.

scholarly journals Simulator for Arctic Marine Structures (SAMS)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raed Lubbad ◽  
Sveinung Løset ◽  
Wenjun Lu ◽  
Andrei Tsarau ◽  
Marnix van den Berg
Keyword(s):  
Software Package ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Marine Structures ◽  
Simulation Tools ◽  
Readiness Level ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Cost Efficient

As offshore activities in the Arctic constitute a relatively new field with only a handful of relevant operations to draw experience from, and since full-scale trials are extremely expensive, there is an expressed need for much more extensive, detailed and cost-efficient analysis of concepts based on numerical simulations. However, until recently simulation tools of sufficient quality to perform such numerical analysis have not existed. The only verification available has been through a limited set of experiments in ice model basins. Today, this has changed, partly through the efforts at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) hosting SAMCoT (Centre for Research-based Innovation - Sustainable Arctic Marine and Coastal Technology), laying the foundation of a versatile and highly accurate high-fidelity numerical simulator for offshore structures in various ice conditions such as level ice, broken ice and ice ridges. Arctic Integrated Solutions AS (ArcISo) is a spin-off company from NTNU established in 2016 with the vision of increasing the technology readiness level of SAMCoT’s numerical models to become a professional software package for the analysis of sea ice actions and action effects on Arctic offshore and coastal structures. This software package is called Simulator for Arctic Marine Structures (SAMS) and it was first released in 2017. This paper introduces the software implementation and the theoretical basis of SAMS, and it discusses the use of full-scale data to validate the simulator.

scholarly journals The Northern Sea Route: Problems of National Status Legitimization under International Law. Part II

2020 ◽  
pp. 130-147
Author(s):  
Pavel GUDEV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Law ◽  
Legal Status ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Sea Route ◽  
The Status ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Legal Position ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Broad Interpretation ◽  
Legal Grounds

The second part of the paper shows that the regime of navigation in the Arctic, particularly on the NSR, defended by Russia today, is much more liberal than that which existed in the Soviet years: up to the Gorbachev’s 1987 Murmansk speech the Soviet Arctic was a closed sea region for foreign navigation. Per-missive order of passage established today at the level of Russian national legislation applies only to civil ships, and in the framework of the 1982 Convention, measures to protect the marine environment from pollution from ships cannot be applied to warships, military auxiliary ships, and ships on the state non-commercial service. However, the presence on the Northern Sea routes of water areas with the status of internal historical waters, including several Arctic straits, plus the special legal status of the Arctic, which is not limited exclusively to the 1982 Convention, allows Russia to insist on the applicability of the permit regime also to foreign warships. This approach is based mainly on the two states’ practice with the longest coastline in the Arctic: the USSR and Canada. Navigation along the NSR in today’s ice conditions is not yet possible without passing through the waters of the Russian Arctic Straits, whose waters are classified by the USSR as internal on historical legal grounds. Although under the 1982 Convention, they can be conditionally regarded as international, the lack of permanent transit through them makes it possible not to recognize them as such. However, the Russian Federation’s task to turn the NSR into an international shipping route may lead to a weakening of the current legal position. A similar situation may arise concerning the enforcement of Article 234 “Ice Covered Areas” of the 1982 Convention, which gives the Arctic countries additional rights in the field of navigation control. Lack of ice cover in the Arctic during most of the year can significantly strengthen the position of Russia’s opponents, who insist on a too broad interpretation of this article on our part. Finally, climatic changes may lead to the NSR becoming more latitudinal, and then the Russian Federation will lose any legal grounds to regulate navigation.

Numerical Prediction of Ship-Ice Interaction: A Project Presentation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malte Hahn ◽  
Hendrik Dankowski ◽  
Sören Ehlers ◽  
Sandro Erceg ◽  
Thomas Rung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Research Collaboration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Resource Exploitation ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Extreme Load

It is inevitable that commercial shipping and oil and gas resource exploitation activities in the Arctic will increase due to decreasing sea ice extent caused by global climate changes. Significantly more demanding and at the same time less well known environmental conditions create a need for reliable methods to assess icebreaking performance guaranteeing safe performance of the ships operating in this area subjected to various ice conditions. The classic approach of assessing ice-going performance, which combines class rules, experience and model tests, may not be applicable for the Arctic region in full. Furthermore, ship yards experience difficulties due to decreasing time frames and financial restrictions. Therefore this paper seeks to introduce a new development for a realistic and validated direct simulation approach for prediction of the hull load and icebreaking resistance that covers all aspects of the industrial design process and allows a more comprehensive analysis. The breaking model will provide a variable breaking pattern and is able to mimic the influence of the vessel speed and the environment on the ice loading and the predicted breaking length. In order to predict the extreme representative conditions to be simulated, a reverse extreme load prediction methodology is incorporated. An efficient, time dependent dynamic coupling between broken ice fragments, ice features, the 3D flow field and the ship’s hull provides resistance values for performance calculations. The computational model will be validated against full-scale data and class rules using deterministic and probabilistic measures. This simulation approach is developed within international research collaboration between Pella Sietas, Rolls Royce Marine, TUHH and NTNU. An overview of the project together with the current status of the ongoing work including first results is presented.

scholarly journals ICE INFLUENCE ON FORMING SHIPPING ROUTES IN THE WATER AREA OF THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE

2019 ◽  
pp. 26-36
Author(s):  
Evgeniy Olegovich Olkhovik ◽  
Ekaterina Valerievna Andreeva ◽  
Aleksandr Lvovich Tezikov
Keyword(s):  
Water Area ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Seas ◽  
Sea Transport ◽  
Northern Sea Route ◽  
Analytical Review ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Navigation Mode ◽  
Movement Parameters

The article focuses on the processes of forming the shipping routes in the waters of the Northern Sea Route when passing from the summer navigation period to the winter navigation period. The main indicators characterizing the volume of freight carried out along the routes of the Northern Sea Route in 2018 are presented. There has been stated the change in the structure of the Arctic fleet and an increase in the share of large-tonnage vessels operating in the Kara Sea in the year-round navigation mode. The comparative data of monitoring the movement parameters of LNG-tankers (YamalMax type) obtained in January, March and September 2018 are given. The causes of changes in the trajectory of ships when sailing in ice have been revealed and analyzed. The results of the analytical review of works that are devoted to the study of the influence of the ice parameters on maneuverability of the vessels and the development of methods for finding the best routes along the Northern Sea Route are shown. To carry out studies of the ship speed, the tools of geo-information systems in geo-spatial formulation were use. The analytical model of the vessel navigation through the ice between two fixed points has been proposed. The main criteria for comparing shipping routes have been defined. The results of the comparative quantitative estimates of the vessel routes are given. Recommendations on using the results obtained in the theory and practice of Arctic shipping are given. The studies are carried out as part of an initiative project to develop a theory of sea transport flows in the Northern Sea Route water area, implemented at the Arctic Faculty of the Admiral Makarov State University of Maritime and Inland Shipping. The results of this paper can be use when searching for the best routes for navigation in the ice conditions, when planning hydrographic works and developing a promising network of shipping routes in the Arctic seas.

The Voyage of Sibiryakov, 1932

Polar Record ◽  
1978 ◽  
Vol 19 (120) ◽  
pp. 253-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Barr
Keyword(s):  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Sea Route ◽  
Ice Conditions

Prior to the summer of 1932 only three ships had succeeded in traversing the Northern Sea Route: Nordenskiöld's Vega in 1878–79 from Atlantic to Pacific (Nordenskiold, 1881) and the Imperial Navy icebreakers Taymyr and Vaygach from Pacific to Atlantic in 1914–15 (Starokadomskiy, 1976, p 180–262). Both of these expeditions were unable to complete the passage in one season, but were forced by ice conditions to winter in the Arctic.

A review of Russian ice-breaking tariff policy on the northern sea route 1991–2014

Polar Record ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daria Gritsenko ◽  
Tuomas Kiiski
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Economic Potential ◽  
Tariff Policy ◽  
Global Context ◽  
Northern Sea Route ◽  
Arctic Shipping ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Cost Item

ABSTRACTIn recent years, interest in the economic potential of the Arctic has been mounting, facilitated by environmental developments caused by climate change. In this context, the viability of shipping in Arctic waters is pivotal. This article explores the interplay of market considerations and the non-market drivers (climatic, navigational and political components) regarding the viability of the most prominent Arctic shipping route, the northern sea route (NSR), as a global shipping route. In particular, it concentrates on the Russian ice-breaking tariff policy on the NSR and presents a review from 1991, when the route was officially opened to international shipping, until 2014. The study integrates qualitative and longitudinal quantitative data related to NSR traffic, ice-breaking tariffs and ice conditions. The paper shows that the ice-breaking fees play a key role for the functioning of the NSR by providing a source of funding for the ice-breaking fleet, which constitutes a basis for safe shipping. However, the development of the NSR into a competitive transcontinental shipping route is determined by a dynamic mixture of factors in which the Russian ice-breaking fee represents an additional cost item for shipping companies and shippers. It is argued that the development of ice-breaking tariff policy has been guided by structural changes in external factors consequently influencing the demand for ice-breaking services (a derivative of NSR demand), which limits the extent to which tariff policy influences the attractiveness of the NSR in a global context.

DP Ice Model Test of Arctic Drillship and Polar Research Vessel

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torbjørn Hals ◽  
Nils Albert Jenssen
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Model Tests ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Research Vessel ◽  
Station Keeping ◽  
Ice Drift ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Ice Model

The paper presents the results from a series of ice model tests performed as part of the DYPIC (Dynamic Positioning in Ice Conditions) research program. DYPIC is a research and development project within the EU’s ERA NET MARTEC project. The major purpose of the DYPIC project is development of equipment and methods for DP Ice Model testing which allows the prediction of station keeping capability of different vessel types and offshore structures under various ice conditions. The first DYPIC model tests performed in 2011 was conducted with two significantly different vessel sizes, a 68.0000 m3 volume displacement arctic drillship and an 8.600 m3 polar research vessel. The model scale was 1/30 for the arctic drillship and 1/18.6 for the Polar Research Vessel. The model tests were performed in the ice model basin at HSVA using vessel models equipped with thruster capacity similar to full scale operation according to DP class 2 / 3 operations. The DP control system was also modified from normal open water DP operations in order to cope with the highly varying ice drift loads acting on the vessel. The test program gave data supporting the development of numerical models of ice loads from managed ice, see reference [6]. The main focus in this paper is on the station keeping performance and associated thrust utilization as a function of varying ice drift loads. The results and data collected in the first year of the DYPIC program demonstrates that DP ice model tests will be a valuable tool for evaluation of vessel performance prior to moving on to full scale arctic DP operations.

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