Ice Condition Database for the Arctic Sea

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tõnis Tõns ◽  
Sandro Erceg ◽  
Sören Ehlers ◽  
Bernt Johan Leira
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Transport ◽  
The Past ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Increasing Trends

Increasing trends in the arctic sea transport lead to the necessity to determine route specific ice conditions to ensure safe vessel transits. In order to achieve this, the comprehensive understanding of ice conditions from the past should be used to predict future trends for arctic sea ice conditions. This paper presents the development of such ice conditions database with the implementation of a satellite data source, which will become a basis for the determination of route specific ice conditions. A case study is performed in order to show how the database could be used to collect the route specific ice data for statistical analyses.

Mission Based Ship Design Under Uncertain Arctic Sea Ice Conditions

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minjoo Choi ◽  
Stein Ove Erikstad ◽  
Sören Ehlers
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Route Planning ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Arctic Change ◽  
Dynamic Route

For the design of an ice-going ship, determining its ice-capability is one of the key design aspects. Excessive ice-capability increases the ship’s acquisition cost and reduces its deadweight capacity. On the other hand, less ice-capability limits its serviceable area and it decreases the probability for the ship to complete its given/expected missions successfully. The ice conditions, which the ship would encounter during its operations, are dependent on its route planning, and they become a basis for the determination of its ice-capability. For the design of an ice-going ship, which is going to be operated under constant operational conditions, static route analysis or use of historical voyage data is sufficient to estimate its required ice-capability. However, if the operational conditions change dynamically, like the Arctic sea ice conditions, a dynamic route analysis is needed. Otherwise, the required ice-capability tends to be over-estimated by the static analysis. Sea ice conditions in the Arctic change dynamically from hour-to-hour. In addition, the forecast of its operational conditions has a high uncertainty due to lack of understanding of the Arctic sea ice. Thus, for the design of a ship for Arctic operation, we carry out transit simulations in a dynamic and stochastic manner in this paper and estimate the required ice-capability from the simulations’ result.

Prévoir les variations saisonnières de la glace de mer arctique et leurs impacts sur le climat

2020 ◽  
pp. 024
Author(s):  
Rym Msadek ◽  
Gilles Garric ◽  
Sara Fleury ◽  
Florent Garnier ◽  
Lauriane Batté ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Recent Effort ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Upper Level

L'Arctique est la région du globe qui s'est réchauffée le plus vite au cours des trente dernières années, avec une augmentation de la température de surface environ deux fois plus rapide que pour la moyenne globale. Le déclin de la banquise arctique observé depuis le début de l'ère satellitaire et attribué principalement à l'augmentation de la concentration des gaz à effet de serre aurait joué un rôle important dans cette amplification des températures au pôle. Cette fonte importante des glaces arctiques, qui devrait s'accélérer dans les décennies à venir, pourrait modifier les vents en haute altitude et potentiellement avoir un impact sur le climat des moyennes latitudes. L'étendue de la banquise arctique varie considérablement d'une saison à l'autre, d'une année à l'autre, d'une décennie à l'autre. Améliorer notre capacité à prévoir ces variations nécessite de comprendre, observer et modéliser les interactions entre la banquise et les autres composantes du système Terre, telles que l'océan, l'atmosphère ou la biosphère, à différentes échelles de temps. La réalisation de prévisions saisonnières de la banquise arctique est très récente comparée aux prévisions du temps ou aux prévisions saisonnières de paramètres météorologiques (température, précipitation). Les résultats ayant émergé au cours des dix dernières années mettent en évidence l'importance des observations de l'épaisseur de la glace de mer pour prévoir l'évolution de la banquise estivale plusieurs mois à l'avance. Surface temperatures over the Arctic region have been increasing twice as fast as global mean temperatures, a phenomenon known as arctic amplification. One main contributor to this polar warming is the large decline of Arctic sea ice observed since the beginning of satellite observations, which has been attributed to the increase of greenhouse gases. The acceleration of Arctic sea ice loss that is projected for the coming decades could modify the upper level atmospheric circulation yielding climate impacts up to the mid-latitudes. There is considerable variability in the spatial extent of ice cover on seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales. Better understanding, observing and modelling the interactions between sea ice and the other components of the climate system is key for improved predictions of Arctic sea ice in the future. Running operational-like seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice is a quite recent effort compared to weather predictions or seasonal predictions of atmospheric fields like temperature or precipitation. Recent results stress the importance of sea ice thickness observations to improve seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice conditions during summer.

scholarly journals Inter-Relations between the Arctic Sea Ice and the General Circulation of the Atmosphere (Abstract)

1987 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 252-252
Author(s):  
G. Wendler ◽  
M. Jeffries ◽  
Y. Nagashima
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Zonal Circulation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Opposing Effects

Satellite imagery has substantially improved the quality of sea-Ice observation over the last decades. Therefore, for a 25-year period, a statistical study based on the monthly Arctic sea-ice data and the monthly mean 700 mbar maps of the Northern Hemisphere was carried out to establish the relationships between sea-ice conditions and the general circulation of the atmosphere. It was found that sea-ice conditions have two opposing effects on the zonal circulation intensity, depending on the season. Heavier than normal ice in winter causes stronger than normal zonal circulation in the subsequent months, whereas heavier than normal ice in the summer–fall causes weaker zonal circulation in the subsequent months. Analyzing the two sectors, the Atlantic and Pacific ones separately, a negative correlation was found, which means a heavy ice year in the Atlantic Ocean is normally associated with a light one in the Pacific Ocean and vice versa.

Sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice concentration forecasts to different atmospheric forcing: a case study

2014 ◽  
Vol 33 (12) ◽  
pp. 15-23
Author(s):  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Jiping Liu ◽  
Zhanhai Zhang ◽  
Cuijuan Sui ◽  
Jianyong Xing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Forcing ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration

The Seasonal Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Late Twenty-First Century

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 333-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Deser ◽  
Robert Tomas ◽  
Michael Alexander ◽  
David Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract The authors investigate the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss at the end of the twenty-first century using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a land surface model. The response was obtained from two 60-yr integrations: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of specified sea ice conditions for the late twentieth century (1980–99) and one with that of sea ice conditions for the late twenty-first century (2080–99). In both integrations, a repeating seasonal cycle of SSTs for 1980–99 was prescribed to isolate the impact of projected future sea ice loss. Note that greenhouse gas concentrations remained fixed at 1980–99 levels in both sets of experiments. The twentieth- and twenty-first-century sea ice (and SST) conditions were obtained from ensemble mean integrations of a coupled GCM under historical forcing and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario forcing, respectively. The loss of Arctic sea ice is greatest in summer and fall, yet the response of the net surface energy budget over the Arctic Ocean is largest in winter. Air temperature and precipitation responses also maximize in winter, both over the Arctic Ocean and over the adjacent high-latitude continents. Snow depths increase over Siberia and northern Canada because of the enhanced winter precipitation. Atmospheric warming over the high-latitude continents is mainly confined to the boundary layer (below ∼850 hPa) and to regions with a strong low-level temperature inversion. Enhanced warm air advection by submonthly transient motions is the primary mechanism for the terrestrial warming. A significant large-scale atmospheric circulation response is found during winter, with a baroclinic (equivalent barotropic) vertical structure over the Arctic in November–December (January–March). This response resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in February only. Comparison with the fully coupled model reveals that Arctic sea ice loss accounts for most of the seasonal, spatial, and vertical structure of the high-latitude warming response to greenhouse gas forcing at the end of the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Complementary biomarker-based methods for characterising Arctic sea ice conditions: A case study comparison between multivariate analysis and the PIP25 index

2018 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. 406-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denizcan Köseoğlu ◽  
Simon T. Belt ◽  
Lukas Smik ◽  
Haoyi Yao ◽  
Giuliana Panieri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions

Assessment of the Regional Arctic System Model Intra-Annual Ensemble Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wieslaw Maslowski ◽  
Younjoo Lee ◽  
Anthony Craig ◽  
Mark Seefeldt ◽  
Robert Osinski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
The Past ◽  
Arctic Sea

<p>The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) has been developed and used to investigate the past to present evolution of the Arctic climate system and to address increasing demands for Arctic forecasts beyond synoptic time scales. RASM is a fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere-land hydrology model configured over the pan-Arctic domain with horizontal resolution of 50 km or 25 km for the atmosphere and land and 9.3 km or 2.4 km for the ocean and sea ice components. As a regional model, RASM requires boundary conditions along its lateral boundaries and in the upper atmosphere, which for simulations of the past to present are derived from global atmospheric reanalyses, such as the National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System version 2 and Reanalysis (CFSv2/CFSR). This dynamical downscaling approach allows comparison of RASM results with observations, in place and time, to diagnose and reduce model biases. This in turn allows a unique capability not available in global weather prediction and Earth system models to produce realistic and physically consistent initial conditions for prediction without data assimilation.</p><p>More recently, we have developed a new capability for an intra-annual (up to 6 months) ensemble prediction of the Arctic sea ice and climate using RASM forced with the routinely produced (every 6 hours) NCEP CFSv2 global 9-month forecasts. RASM intra-annual ensemble forecasts have been initialized on the 1<sup>st</sup> of each month starting in 2019 with forcing for each ensemble member derived from CSFv2 forecasts, 24-hr apart from the month preceding the initial forecast date.  Several key processes and feedbacks will be discussed with regard to their impact on model physics, the representation of initial state and ensemble prediction skill of Arctic sea ice variability at time scales from synoptic to decadal. The skill of RASM ensemble forecasts will be assessed against available satellite observations with reference to reanalysis as well as hindcast data using several metrics, including the standard deviation, root mean square difference, Taylor diagrams and integrated ice-edge error.</p>

Ship Performance Assessment for Arctic Transport Routes

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandro Erceg ◽  
Sören Ehlers ◽  
Ingrid H. Ellingsen ◽  
Dag Slagstad ◽  
Rüdiger von Bock und Polach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Transport ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Ice Coverage ◽  
Merit Factor ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Transit Operation ◽  
Ship Performance

The melting ice cap in the Arctic Sea creates greater operational opportunities not only for shipping routes in areas inaccessible in the past due to ice coverage, but also for the existing commercial shipping routes. Therefore, the economic feasibility of higher polar classes (PC5 and PC4) will be discussed for transit operations on the route from Rotterdam to Yamal LNG terminal. Initially, the ice thickness and coverage along the route until 2050 will be identified following recent forecasting trends. This will lead to the permitted round trips per year for the ice class in question. Consequently, a decision towards the choice of ice class must be made. This choice will be accomplished with the help of the ship merit factor (SMF), which considers the potential earnings arising from the increase in operational days for a higher ice class while accounting for the increased expenditure in the ice free season and areas of operation. As a result, a comparative study will be presented for the LNG sea transport operation on the route from Rotterdam to Yamal, which thereby visualizes a decision-support procedure for an arctic transit operation.

Analysis of the Arctic sea ice conditions for 2011 at the onset of summer minimum

2012 ◽  
Vol 48 (9) ◽  
pp. 1027-1038 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. G. Platonov ◽  
I. N. Mordvintsev ◽  
V. V. Rozhnov ◽  
I. V. Alpatsky
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Summer Minimum
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