A New Recommended Practice for Inspection Planning of Fatigue Cracks in Offshore Structures Based on Probabilistic Methods

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inge Lotsberg ◽  
Gudfinnur Sigurdsson
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Fatigue Cracks ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Inspection Planning ◽  
Standard Design ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Service Inspection

During the last 30 years a methodology for planning in-service inspection of fatigue cracks based on probabilistic methods has been developed. Due to the nature of the fatigue phenomena it is well known that minor changes in basic assumptions can have significant influence on the predicted crack growth lives. Calculated fatigue lives are sensitive to input parameters using standard design analysis procedures. Calculated probabilities of fatigue failure using probabilistic methods are even more sensitive to the analysis methodology and to input parameters to the analyses. Fracture mechanics analysis is required for prediction of crack sizes during service life in order to account for probability of detection after an inspection event. Analysis based on fracture mechanics needs to be calibrated to that of fatigue test data or S-N data. Thus, use of these methods for planning inspection requires considerable education and engineering skill. Therefore the industry has asked for guidelines that can be used to derive reliable inspection results using these methods. DNV has during the last years performed a joint industry project on use of probabilistic methods for planning in-service inspection for fatigue cracks in offshore structures. The recommendations from this project are now being included in a DNV Recommended Practice. The main background for this document is presented in this paper.

Probabilistic Inspection Planning of the Åsgard A FPSO Hull Structure With Respect to Fatigue

2000 ◽  
Vol 122 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inge Lotsberg ◽  
Gudfinnur Sigurdsson ◽  
Per Terje Wold
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Life ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Fatigue Cracks ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Production Unit ◽  
Inspection Planning ◽  
Hull Structure ◽  
Service Inspection

Probabilistic methods has been used to develop a basis for an in-service inspection program for the A˚sgard A FPSO hull structure with respect to fatigue cracks. A˚sgard A is a floating production unit constructed for Statoil and was installed on the A˚sgard Field during the winter 1999. Hot spot areas showing the shortest calculated fatigue lives have been selected for probabilistic analyses. This implies areas at doubling plates and transverse stiffeners in the deck structure and the connections between the side longitudinals and the transverse frames. In FPSOs, there are a number of details with similar geometry that also are fabricated in the same way. Some of the details like those in the deck structure are also subjected to the same magnitude of loading. Consequently, there will be correlation in fatigue life when several components are considered at the same time. The effect of this correlation has been investigated for components that have a welded surface and components that are ground. A number of analyses have been performed to investigate the effect of this correlation on required amount of in-service inspection. And it is shown how results from these analyses are transferred into an in-service inspection program for the A˚sgard A FPSO. [S0892-7219(00)00302-2]

Safe Operation of Jacket Platforms in a Major Oil Field in the North Sea

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingar Scherf ◽  
Trine Hansen ◽  
Gudfinnur Sigurdsson
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Preparedness ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Fatigue Cracks ◽  
Regulatory Compliance ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Oil Field ◽  
Inspection Planning ◽  
Original Design ◽  
Safe Operation ◽  
Integrity Management

Offshore Structures operate for decades in extremely hostile environments. It is important during this period that the structural integrity is efficiently managed to ensure continuous and safe operation. Increased use of enhanced oil and gas recovery means it is likely that many existing installations will remain operational for a significant period beyond the original design life. The operator needs to capture, evaluate and, if necessary, mitigate design premise changes which inevitably occur during the life of a structure. Further, advances in knowledge and technology may imply changes in codes and standards as well as in analysis methodologies. Changes in corporate structures, transfer of operator responsibility and retirement of experienced engineers call for reliable means to transfer historical data and experience to new stakeholders. Effective emergency preparedness capabilities, structural integrity assessments and inspection planning presuppose that as-is analysis models and corresponding information are easily accessible. This paper presents an implementation of the in-service integrity management process described in the new revision of NORSOK standard N-005 [1] for a large fleet of jackets at the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The process, comprising management of design premise changes as well as state-of-the-art technical solutions over a range of disciplines, has enabled the operator to prolong the service life with decades at minimum investments. A structure integrity management system (SIMS) has been developed and digitized over years and streamlined to meet the needs and challenges in the operation and management of the jacket platforms. SIMS enables a rather lean organization to control the structural integrity status of all load-bearing structures at any time. Platform reinforcements and modifications along with other operational risk reducing measures like unman the platforms in severe storms enable continued use with the same level of safety as for new manned platforms. Advanced analyses are used to document regulatory compliance. Modern fatigue and reliability based inspection planning analyses have reduced the costs needed for inspection of fatigue cracks significantly. The benefits from the SIMS system are substantial and the resulting safety and productivity gains are apparent. The continuity of knowledge and experience is maintained, reducing risk to safety and regularity. The digital transformation related to management of structural integrity status as described in NORSOK standard N-005 is realized through SIMS.

Applications of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics to Offshore Structures

1988 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 61-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Finn Kirkemo
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Model Updating ◽  
Fatigue Cracks ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Steel Structures ◽  
Local Stress ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Fatigue Limit State ◽  
Life Predictions

For offshore structures the fatigue limit state is governing the structural dimensions of several members and joint connections. Safety against fatigue failure is achieved through a combination of design requirements and performance of in-service inspections with repair of detected fatigue cracks. A review of uncertainties involved in fatigue life predictions by fracture mechanics is presented with particular reference to steel structures. Sources of uncertainties considered are: environmental conditions, hydrodynamic loading, global structural analysis, local stress calculation at fatigue sensitive points, and fatigue crack growth modeling by fracture mechanics. A probabilistic model using the fracture mechanics in probabilistic form is presented. This model accounts for uncertainties in loading, initial and critical defect sizes, material parameters, and in the uncertainty related to computation of the stress intensity factor. Failure probabilities are computed by first-order reliability methods and sensitivity factors are determined. Model updating based on in-service inspection results is formulated. Uncertainties with respect to detecting a crack and to correctly sizing a crack are included. Experience on application of the analysis method is presented.

Wellhead Fatigue Analysis Method: Benefits of a Structural Reliability Analysis Approach

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Lorents Reinås ◽  
Jan Mathisen
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Fatigue Analysis ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Inspection Planning ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Extreme Load ◽  
Input Parameters

Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) methods have been applied to marine and offshore structures for decades. SRA has proven useful in life extension exercises and inspection planning of existing offshore structures. It is also a useful tool in code development, where the reliability level provided by the code is calibrated to a target failure probability obtained by SRA. This applies both to extreme load situations and also to a structural system under the influence of a time dependent degradation process such as fatigue. The current analysis methods suggested for service life estimation of subsea wells are deterministic, and these analyses are associated with high sensitivity to variations in input parameters. Thus sensitivity screening is often recommended for certain input parameters, and the worst case is then typically used as a basis for the analysis. The associated level of conservatism embedded in results from a deterministic analysis is not quantified, and it is therefore difficult to know and to justify if unnecessary conservatism can be removed from the calculations. By applying SRA to a wellhead fatigue analysis, the input parameters are accounted for with their associated uncertainty given by probability distributions. Analysis results can be generated by use of Monte-Carlo simulations or FORM/SORM (first/second order reliability methods), accounting for the full scatter of system relations and input variations. The level of conservatism can then be quantified and evaluated versus an acceptable probability of failure. This article presents results from a SRA of a fictitious but still realistic well model, including the main assumptions that were made, and discusses how SRA can be applied to a wellhead fatigue analysis. Global load analyses and local stress calculations were carried out prior to the SRA, and a response surface technique was used to interpolate on these results. This analysis has been limited to two hotspots located in each of the two main load bearing members of the wellhead system. The SRA provides a probability of failure estimate that may be used to give better decision support in the event of life extension of existing subsea wells. In addition, a relative uncertainty ranking of input variables provides insight into the problem and knowledge about where risk reducing efforts should be made to reduce the uncertainty. It should be noted that most attention has been given to the method development, and that more comprehensive analysis work and assessment of specific input is needed in a real case.

The Potential for Non-Conservative Results From the Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analyses Is Assessed Based on the Collected Observation of Fatigue Cracks in Offshore Steel Structures

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ole Tom Vårdal
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Crack ◽  
Fatigue Crack Growth ◽  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Crack Growth ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Fatigue Cracks ◽  
Steel Structures ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Growth Potential

In structural integrity management, it is essential to know the fatigue crack growth potential. The lessons learned from use of refined fatigue analyses, fracture mechanics and probabilistic methods for platforms in-service are presented. For ageing offshore units of semi-submersible design, the inspection history of more than 20 000 NDT inspections and detection of close to 1000 fatigue cracks, are used in this study. These experience data are used to assess the potential for Non-conservative estimate for the fatigue crack growth potential.

Probabilistic methods for planning of inspection for fatigue cracks in offshore structures

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 ◽  
pp. 167-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inge Lotsberg ◽  
Gudfinnur Sigurdsson ◽  
Arne Fjeldstad ◽  
Torgeir Moan
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Cracks ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Probabilistic Methods
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