Safety Factors for Fatigue Analysis of Flexible Pipes Based on Structural Reliability

Author(s):  
Fernando dos Santos Loureiro Filho ◽  
Edison Castro Prates de Lima ◽  
Luís Volnei Sudati Sagrilo ◽  
Fernando Jorge Mendes de Sousa ◽  
Carlos Alberto Duarte de Lemos

Structural reliability–based methodology [1,2] has been proposed for fatigue analysis of flexible pipes tension armours. In this methodology a design criterion is verified using a standard reliability analysis approach and checking if the fatigue failure probability is equal to or less than a target value. The use of reliability analysis in the every day design practice is not yet a common procedure. Hence, in this paper we present the calibration of safety factors for Brazilian environmental conditions to be used in the standard fatigue analysis of flexible riser tension armours. The calibration is performed in order to guarantee the same target probability of failure. The safety factors are calibrated considering four flexible risers, two connected to FPSOs and the other two to semi-submersibles located in different water depths in Campos Basin offshore Brazil.

Author(s):  
Federico Barranco Cicilia ◽  
Edison Castro Prates de Lima ◽  
Lui´s Volnei Sudati Sagrilo

This paper presents a Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) criterion applied to the design of Tension Leg Platform (TLP) tendons in their intact condition. The design criterion considers the Ultimate Limit State (ULS) of any tendon section along its whole length taking into account both dynamic interactions of load effects and the statistics of its associated extreme response. The partial safety factors are calibrated through a long-term reliability-based methodology for the storm environmental conditions, like hurricanes and winter storms, in deep waters of the Campeche Bay, Mexico. In the reliability analysis, the uncertainties in the definition of load effects and analytic limit state models for calculation of tendon strength and randomness of material properties are included. The results show that the partial safety factors reflect both uncertainty content and the importance of the random variables in structural reliability analysis. When tendons are designed according to the developed LRFD criterion, a less scattered variation of reliability indexes is obtained for different tendon sections across a single or various TLP designs.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thierry Dequin ◽  
Clark Weldon ◽  
Matthew Hense

Abstract Flexible risers are regularly used to produce oil and gas in subsea production systems and by nature interconnect the subsea production system to the floating or fixed host facilities. Unbonded flexible pipes are made of a combination of metallic and non-metallic layers, each layer being individually terminated at each extremity by complex end fittings. Mostly submerged in seawater, the metallic parts require careful material selection and cathodic protection (CP) to survive the expected service life. Design engineers must determine whether the flexible pipe risers should be electrically connected to the host in order to receive cathodic protection current or be electrically isolated. If the host structure is equipped with a sacrificial anode system, then electrical continuity between the riser and the host structure is generally preferred. The exception is often when the riser and host structure are operated by separate organizations, in which case electrical isolation may be preferred simply to provide delineation of ownership between the two CP systems. The paper discusses these interface issues between hull and subsea where the hull is equipped with an impressed current cathodic protection (ICCP) system, and provides guidance for addressing them during flexible pipe CP design, operation, and monitoring. Specifically, CP design philosophies for flexible risers will be addressed with respect to manufacturing, installation and interface with the host structure’s Impressed Current Cathodic Protection (ICCP) system. The discussion will emphasize the importance of early coordination between the host structure ICCP system designers and the subsea SACP system designers, and will include recommendations for CP system computer modeling, CP system design operation and CP system monitoring. One of the challenges is to understand what to consider for the exposed surfaces in the flexible pipes and its multiple layers, and also the evaluation of the linear resistance of each riser segment. The linear resistance of the riser is a major determinant with respect to potential attenuation, which in turn largely determines the extent of current drain between the subsea sacrificial anode system and the hull ICCP system. To model the flexible riser CP system behavior for self-protection, linear resistance may be maximized, however the use of a realistic linear resistance is recommended for evaluation of the interaction between the host structure and subsea system. Realistic flexible linear resistance would also reduce conservatism in the CP design, potentially save time during the offshore campaign by reducing anode quantities, and also providing correct evaluation of drain current and stray currents.


2005 ◽  
Vol 128 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Sheehan ◽  
Frank W. Grealish ◽  
Annette M. Harte ◽  
Russell J. Smith

As the offshore industry moves towards deeper water developments and continues to embrace harsh environments, unbonded flexible pipes are increasingly being utilized as a cost effective riser solution. Furthermore, with the advent of issues such as nonpristine annuli environments, the fatigue performance of these flexible risers is becoming a critical issue. This paper presents an overview of the comparisons between deterministic and stochastic global fatigue analysis techniques. Methods used to perform both deterministic and stochastic analyses are outlined, from performing the global analyses to using local models to generate armor wire stresses and subsequent fatigue damage. The paper identifies the key issues in the analysis performed and presents key results and conclusions with regard to the characterization of the wave environment in the global fatigue analysis of flexible risers.


Author(s):  
Bernt J. Leira ◽  
Ragnar T. Igland ◽  
Gro S. Baarholm ◽  
Knut A. Farnes ◽  
Dick Percy

In the present paper, fatigue safety factors for flexible risers are assessed. A procedure for reliability analysis of wave-induced fatigue is first described. The procedure is based on performing a number of parametric studies with respect to variables that influence the fatigue lifetime. The results of these parametric studies are subsequently combined with models describing the statistical scatter of the same parameters. By application of this procedure, the safety factors which are required in order to reach specific target reliability levels can be computed. Such safety factors are computed for three specific flexible riser configurations. Different SN -curves which correspond to different corrosive environments are considered. The percentwise contribution from each parameter to the total statistical variation of the limit state function is also quantified.


Author(s):  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Lorents Reinås ◽  
Jan Mathisen

Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) methods have been applied to marine and offshore structures for decades. SRA has proven useful in life extension exercises and inspection planning of existing offshore structures. It is also a useful tool in code development, where the reliability level provided by the code is calibrated to a target failure probability obtained by SRA. This applies both to extreme load situations and also to a structural system under the influence of a time dependent degradation process such as fatigue. The current analysis methods suggested for service life estimation of subsea wells are deterministic, and these analyses are associated with high sensitivity to variations in input parameters. Thus sensitivity screening is often recommended for certain input parameters, and the worst case is then typically used as a basis for the analysis. The associated level of conservatism embedded in results from a deterministic analysis is not quantified, and it is therefore difficult to know and to justify if unnecessary conservatism can be removed from the calculations. By applying SRA to a wellhead fatigue analysis, the input parameters are accounted for with their associated uncertainty given by probability distributions. Analysis results can be generated by use of Monte-Carlo simulations or FORM/SORM (first/second order reliability methods), accounting for the full scatter of system relations and input variations. The level of conservatism can then be quantified and evaluated versus an acceptable probability of failure. This article presents results from a SRA of a fictitious but still realistic well model, including the main assumptions that were made, and discusses how SRA can be applied to a wellhead fatigue analysis. Global load analyses and local stress calculations were carried out prior to the SRA, and a response surface technique was used to interpolate on these results. This analysis has been limited to two hotspots located in each of the two main load bearing members of the wellhead system. The SRA provides a probability of failure estimate that may be used to give better decision support in the event of life extension of existing subsea wells. In addition, a relative uncertainty ranking of input variables provides insight into the problem and knowledge about where risk reducing efforts should be made to reduce the uncertainty. It should be noted that most attention has been given to the method development, and that more comprehensive analysis work and assessment of specific input is needed in a real case.


Author(s):  
John M. Sheehan ◽  
Frank W. Grealish ◽  
Russell J. Smith ◽  
Annette M. Harte

As the offshore industry moves towards deeper water developments and continues to embrace harsh environments, unbonded flexible pipes are increasingly being utilised as a cost effective riser solution. Furthermore, with the advent of issues such as non-pristine annuli environments, the fatigue performance of these flexible risers is becoming a critical issue. This paper presents an overview of the comparisons between deterministic and stochastic global fatigue analysis techniques. Methods used to perform both deterministic and stochastic analyses are outlined, from performing the global analyses to using local models to generate armour wire stresses and subsequent fatigue damage. The paper identifies the key issues in the analysis performed and presents key results and conclusions with regard to the characterisation of the wave environment in the global fatigue analysis of flexible risers.


Author(s):  
D. H. Li ◽  
C. Y. Tang ◽  
M. Jie ◽  
Albert H. C. Tsang ◽  
Y. C. Tsim

In this paper, an optimization method is used to determine the values of partial factors in structural reliability analysis. Once the proper objective function is defined, a group of optimum partial factors, which enable the objective function to take its minimum value, will need to be determined. In the present study, two kinds of objective function are considered. The conditions that have to be satisfied for optimum partial factors of these two kinds of objective function are then derived. In both cases, the result shows that the partial factors of both dead and live loads should satisfy the same proportional expression and should be inversely proportional to the partial factor of resistance force. A simple beam is used as an example to illustrate the computations involved. It is found that the design concept proposed in this paper leads to a design criterion similar to that which applies to the conventional deterministic method. Thus, this concept can be easily used in practice. The illustrative example shows that the values of the dead load and live load have a significant effect on the reliability design criteria.


Author(s):  
Adriano Novitsky ◽  
Fin Gray

The development of the offshore segment during the last three years was remarkably important for the oil industry due to some major achievements observed in the technical area, more specifically on the development of pipe solutions for ultra deepwater (UDW) applications. Brazil and Gulf of Mexico (GoM) have lately been the two main regions for application of proven pipe solutions in UDW. In Brazil, flexible pipes have been widely used in the development of UDW fields by Petrobras, while in the GoM, rigid pipelines and SCRs have been used for the majority of deepwater field developments. The main advances in flexible pipe technology are linked to the development of two major Petrobras fields located in the Campos Basin named Roncador and Marlim South. Technip-Coflexip has, through Technical Cooperation Agreements with Petrobras, designed, tested and installed flexible pipes, proving the fitness of this kind of product to UDW applications. The qualification of flexible risers for 1500m WD and flexible flowlines for 2000m WD are highlighted as being the main achievements. Extensive testing programs including, collapse, fatigue and offshore full scale tests have been put in place in order to simulate the design conditions to be seen by the pipes during installation and operation phases. The main design aspects in UDW like collapse, radial and lateral buckling of tensile armours, fatigue and thermal insulation will be covered in this paper and the current available technologies to tackle these issues will be presented. Similar design and qualification issues exist for rigid pipelines and risers (SCRs). The following three areas are specifically covered in this paper: collapse resistance of steel pipe; fatigue strength of plastically strained girth welds: and qualification of pipe-in-pipe thermal performance. These are some of the key areas of reeled pipe in deepwater applications that require successful project qualification. Technip-Coflexip has performed internal R&D programs on these areas as well as project specific qualifications. Both will be addressed by the paper.


Author(s):  
Bernt J. Leira ◽  
Ragnar T. Igland ◽  
Naiquan Ye ◽  
Elizabeth A. Passano

In the present paper, fatigue safety factors for metallic layers of flexible risers are assessed. A procedure for reliability analysis of wave-induced fatigue is first described. The procedure is based on performing a number of parametric studies with respect to variables that influence the fatigue lifetime. The results of these parametric studies are subsequently combined with models describing the statistical scatter of the same parameters. By application of this procedure, the safety factors which are required in order to reach specific target reliability levels can be computed. Example of calculation of such safety factors for the tensile and pressure armours of some specific flexible riser configurations are given. Different SN-curves which correspond to different corrosive environments are considered. The percentwise contribution from each parameter to the total statistical variation of the limit state function is also quantified.


Author(s):  
Fernando dos Santos Loureiro Filho ◽  
Edison Castro Prates de Lima ◽  
Luís Volnei Sudati Sagrilo ◽  
Carlos Alberto Duarte de Lemos

Flexible pipes are largely used by oil and gas companies all over the world to exploit oil and gas reserves located into the sea. These pipes are composed by different layers, each one with a specific function. The environmental loads can induce different types of failure modes in a flexible pipe. One important failure mode is associated with the fatigue damage in the tension armours. Fatigue analysis depends on various parameters that are uncertain. A reliability-based procedure to take into account these uncertainties in the fatigue analysis of flexible pipes has been recently proposed [1]. In this methodology the S-N curves have been modeled by a one-slope model. The present work expands this methodology in order to consider S-N bi-linear models.


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