Statistical Analysis on the Extreme Events of Big Waves Under Wave Climate Change Around Taiwan Waters

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ching-Her Hwang ◽  
Wen-Ching Lee ◽  
Wen-Fang Hsieh ◽  
Ching-Piao Tsai ◽  
Hwa Chien
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wave Field ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Wind Field ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Weather Bureau ◽  
Central Weather Bureau ◽  
Typhoon Wind

This study aimed to analyze the statistical characteristics of wave heights, wave energy and wave steepness, in order to investigate the wave climate changes around Taiwan Waters, especially for extreme events of big waves. The operational observation of Taiwan sea waves was initiated by the Central Weather Bureau in 1998; however, due to insufficient data length and low data space coverage, the data are unable to serve as references for long-term wave climate change research. Hence, this study adopted the SWAN (Simulation of Wave in Nearshore) Numerical Wave Hindcasting Method, which is a common method used in many studies, to hindcast the history of a wave field. The re-analysis on wind field data of the last 60 years (1948∼2008), published by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), was employed to make the wind field grid consistent with the hindcast wave field grid. Moreover, the Typhoon Wind Field Grid Down Scaling technique proposed by Winter & Chiou (2007) was applied to interpolate a U10 analysis field that better fits an actual typhoon wind field. The hindcast wave data were compared and validated with directional spectra, which were observed by the meteorological/oceanographic data buoys set up by the Central Weather Bureau and Water Resources Agency since 1997. Longdong, Hualien and Hsinchu Stations were chosen to represent the wave characteristics of sea areas around the island of Taiwan. According to observation data, model parameters were adjusted so that the hindcast results could be closer to observed data in Taiwan sea areas.

scholarly journals FUTURE WAVE PROJECTION DURING THE TYPHOON AND WINTER STORM SEASON

2018 ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Shinsaku Nishizaki ◽  
Ryota Nakamura ◽  
Tomoya Shibayama ◽  
Jacob Stolle
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Coastal Structures ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Wave Conditions

IPCC’s AR5 stated that it is more likely than not that the frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) will decrease and that the intensity of TCs will increase over the Western North Pacific in the late 21st century. Until now, many researchers have tried to project wave climate according to various climate change scenario (Hemer et al., 2013). Most studies focus on the change of mean and extreme wave heights. These indices are important to evaluate the effects on coastal structures in terms of natural disaster prevention. However, the effect of climate change on wave conditions induced by extreme events is still vague. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of future climate change on wave conditions from one-month simulations including periods of extreme events based on the pseudo-warming method (Sato et al., 2007) with the most recent IPCC scenario.

A modeling approach to simulate impact of climate change in lake water quality: phytoplankton growth rate assessment

1998 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hany Hassan ◽  
Keisuke Hanaki ◽  
Tomonori Matsuo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Dissolved Oxygen ◽  
Lake Water ◽  
Phytoplankton Growth ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Lake Water Quality ◽  
Phytoplankton Growth Rate

Global climate change induced by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (especially CO2) is expected to include changes in precipitation, wind speed, incoming solar radiation, and air temperature. These major climate variables directly influence water quality in lakes by altering changes in flow and water temperature balance. High concentration of nutrient enrichment and expected variability of climate can lead to periodic phytoplankton blooms and an alteration of the neutral trophic balance. As a result, dissolved oxygen levels, with low concentrations, can fluctuate widely and algal productivity may reach critical levels. In this work, we will present: 1) recent results of GCMs climate scenarios downscaling project that was held at the University of Derby, UK.; 2) current/future comparative results of a new mathematical lake eutrophication model (LEM) in which output of phytoplankton growth rate and dissolved oxygen will be presented for Suwa lake in Japan as a case study. The model parameters were calibrated for the period of 1973–1983 and validated for the period of 1983–1993. Meterologic, hydrologic, and lake water quality data of 1990 were selected for the assessment analysis. Statistical relationships between seven daily meteorological time series and three airflow indices were used as a means for downscaling daily outputs of Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM2SUL) to the station sub-grid scale.

scholarly journals Contrasting Evolution Patterns of Endorheic and Exorheic Lakes on the Central Tibetan Plateau and Climate Cause Analysis during 1988–2017

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 1962
Author(s):  
Zhilong Zhao ◽  
Yue Zhang ◽  
Zengzeng Hu ◽  
Xuanhua Nie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Mean Temperature

The alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are indicators of climate change. The assessment of lake dynamics on the TP is an important component of global climate change research. With a focus on lakes in the 33° N zone of the central TP, this study investigates the temporal evolution patterns of the lake areas of different types of lakes, i.e., non-glacier-fed endorheic lakes and non-glacier-fed exorheic lakes, during 1988–2017, and examines their relationship with changes in climatic factors. From 1988 to 2017, two endorheic lakes (Lake Yagenco and Lake Zhamcomaqiong) in the study area expanded significantly, i.e., by more than 50%. Over the same period, two exorheic lakes within the study area also exhibited spatio-temporal variability: Lake Gaeencuonama increased by 5.48%, and the change in Lake Zhamuco was not significant. The 2000s was a period of rapid expansion of both the closed lakes (endorheic lakes) and open lakes (exorheic lakes) in the study area. However, the endorheic lakes maintained the increase in lake area after the period of rapid expansion, while the exorheic lakes decreased after significant expansion. During 1988–2017, the annual mean temperature significantly increased at a rate of 0.04 °C/a, while the annual precipitation slightly increased at a rate of 2.23 mm/a. Furthermore, the annual precipitation significantly increased at a rate of 14.28 mm/a during 1995–2008. The results of this study demonstrate that the change in precipitation was responsible for the observed changes in the lake areas of the two exorheic lakes within the study area, while the changes in the lake areas of the two endorheic lakes were more sensitive to the annual mean temperature between 1988 and 2017. Given the importance of lakes to the TP, these are not trivial issues, and we now need accelerated research based on long-term and continuous remote sensing data.

Twitter Users’ Displays of Affect in the Global Warming Debate

2021 ◽  
pp. 004728162110078
Author(s):  
Shanna Cameron ◽  
Alexandra Russell ◽  
Luke Brake ◽  
Katherine Fredlund ◽  
Angela Morris
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Technical Communication ◽  
Research Team ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Quantitative Content ◽  
Twitter Users

This article engages with recent discussions in the field of technical communication that call for climate change research that moves beyond the believer/denier dichotomy. For this study, our research team coded 900 tweets about climate change and global warming for different emotions in order to understand how Twitter users rely on affect rhetorically. Our findings use quantitative content analysis to challenge current assumptions about writing and affect on social media, and our results indicate a number of arenas for future research on affect, global warming, and rhetoric.

scholarly journals Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 665
Author(s):  
Chanchai Petpongpan ◽  
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽  
Supattra Visessri ◽  
Duangrudee Kositgittiwong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

Stress Testing to Assess Recovery from Extreme Events

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. John Plodinec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Stress Testing ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Potential Benefits

Abstract Over the last decade, communities have become increasingly aware of the risks they face. They are threatened by natural disasters, which may be exacerbated by climate change and the movement of land masses. Growing globalization has made a pandemic due to the rapid spread of highly infectious diseases ever more likely. Societal discord breeds its own threats, not the least of which is the spread of radical ideologies giving rise to terrorism. The accelerating rate of technological change has bred its own social and economic risks. This widening spectrum of risk poses a difficult question to every community – how resilient will the community be to the extreme events it faces. In this paper, we present a new approach to answering that question. It is based on the stress testing of financial institutions required by regulators in the United States and elsewhere. It generalizes stress testing by expanding the concept of “capital” beyond finance to include the other “capitals” (e.g., human, social) possessed by a community. Through use of this approach, communities can determine which investments of its capitals are most likely to improve its resilience. We provide an example of using the approach, and discuss its potential benefits.

scholarly journals Projections of Local Knowledge-Based Adaptation Strategies of Mexican Coffee Farmers

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Patricia Ruiz-García ◽  
Cecilia Conde-Álvarez ◽  
Jesús David Gómez-Díaz ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Local Knowledge ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Agroforestry Systems ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Coffee Farmers ◽  
Extreme Hydrological Events ◽  
Adaptation Policies

Local knowledge can be a strategy for coping with extreme events and adapting to climate change. In Mexico, extreme events and climate change projections suggest the urgency of promoting local adaptation policies and strategies. This paper provides an assessment of adaptation actions based on the local knowledge of coffee farmers in southern Mexico. The strategies include collective and individual adaptation actions that farmers have established. To determine their viability and impacts, carbon stocks and fluxes in the system’s aboveground biomass were projected, along with water balance variables. Stored carbon contents are projected to increase by more than 90%, while maintaining agroforestry systems will also help serve to protect against extreme hydrological events. Finally, the integration of local knowledge into national climate change adaptation plans is discussed and suggested with a local focus. We conclude that local knowledge can be successful in conserving agroecological coffee production systems.

scholarly journals Future behavior of wind wave extremes due to climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hector Lobeto ◽  
Melisa Menendez ◽  
Iñigo J. Losada
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Extreme Wave ◽  
Future Behavior ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Wave Conditions ◽  
Ne Pacific ◽  
Change In Mean

AbstractExtreme waves will undergo changes in the future when exposed to different climate change scenarios. These changes are evaluated through the analysis of significant wave height (Hs) return values and are also compared with annual mean Hs projections. Hourly time series are analyzed through a seven-member ensemble of wave climate simulations and changes are estimated in Hs for return periods from 5 to 100 years by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Despite the underlying uncertainty that characterizes extremes, we obtain robust changes in extreme Hs over more than approximately 25% of the ocean surface. The results obtained conclude that increases cover wider areas and are larger in magnitude than decreases for higher return periods. The Southern Ocean is the region where the most robust increase in extreme Hs is projected, showing local increases of over 2 m regardless the analyzed return period under RCP8.5 scenario. On the contrary, the tropical north Pacific shows the most robust decrease in extreme Hs, with local decreases of over 1.5 m. Relevant divergences are found in several ocean regions between the projected behavior of mean and extreme wave conditions. For example, an increase in Hs return values and a decrease in annual mean Hs is found in the SE Indian, NW Atlantic and NE Pacific. Therefore, an extrapolation of the expected change in mean wave conditions to extremes in regions presenting such divergences should be adopted with caution, since it may lead to misinterpretation when used for the design of marine structures or in the evaluation of coastal flooding and erosion.

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