Application of Environmental Contour Lines on a Flexible Riser

This paper is concerned with estimating the response value corresponding to an annual exceedance probability. In principle, this response needs to be obtained by combining the response statistics in all sea states and wave headings. The probability distribution for a given sea state and wave direction, specified by the significant wave height, Hs, the peak period, Tp, and wave direction, β, can be obtained by frequency domain analysis for linear response. Time domain simulations are, in general, required to obtain the stochastic structure of a non-linear response quantity. To limit the statistical uncertainty, the time domain simulations must be sufficiently long. Therefore, a simplified method is necessary to improve the efficiency of the direct calculation of the long-term response value in the non-linear case. A method to determine the long-term extremes by considering only a few short term sea states is outlined. The sea states have a certain probability of occurrence and are identified by a contour line in the (Hs,Tp) plane. This will make possible practical estimation of the extreme loads the structure is exposed to. The contour line approach is merely suggested as a method for predicting load- and response maxima corresponding to a given annual exceedance probability without having to carry out a full long term analysis. The advantage with this concept is that the environmental and response analysis is decoupled. This is very convenient if the problem under consideration is of a very non-linear nature — in particular if characteristic values for design are to be established directly from model tests. The method is an approximate method, but seems to give results of reasonable accuracy for most problems. The purpose of the present paper is to present the contour line method applied to estimate responses on a flexible riser, lazy wave configuration, located in the North Sea.