Prediction of Extreme Roll Motion on an FPSO Using Long Term Statistics

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tone M. Vestbo̸stad ◽  
Sverre Haver ◽  
Odd Jan Andersen ◽  
Arne Albert
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Roll Motion ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Term Analysis

This paper presents a method for predicting extreme roll motion on an FPSO using long-term statistics. The method consists of a long-term simulation where a database of consecutive short-term sea states with combined weather conditions, including direction and magnitude of wind, wind waves and swell waves, is used. The vessel heading in given weather conditions is simulated. For each combined sea state, the short-term roll motion maxima are calculated to form a long-term probability distribution, and the extreme roll motion, e.g. the 100-year value, can be estimated from the distribution. For an example FPSO, the results from the long-term analysis have been compared with full-scale measurements, giving a validation of the method. This paper is a shortened version of [1].

Strength Performance of Steel Catenary Riser Using Short Term and Long Term Analysis Methodologies

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Wang ◽  
Roger Burke ◽  
Anil Sablok ◽  
Kristoffer H. Aronsen ◽  
Oddgeir Dalane
Keyword(s):  
Bending Moment ◽  
Current Profile ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Strength Performance ◽  
Steel Catenary Riser ◽  
Analysis Methodology ◽  
Riser Design ◽  
Term Analysis

Strength performance of a steel catenary riser tied back to a Spar is presented based on long term and short term analysis methodologies. The focus of the study is on response in the riser touch down zone, which is found to be the critical region based on short term analysis results. Short term riser response in design storms is computed based on multiple realizations of computed vessel motions with various return periods. Long term riser response is based on vessel motions for a set of 45,000 sea states, each lasting three hours. The metocean criteria for each sea state is computed based on fifty six years of hindcast wind and wave data. A randomly selected current profile is used in the long term riser analysis for each sea state. Weibull fitting is used to compute the extreme riser response from the response of the 45,000 sea states. Long term analysis results in the touch down zone, including maximum bending moment, minimum effective tension, and maximum utilization using DNV-OS-F201, are compared against those from the short term analysis. The comparison indicates that the short term analysis methodology normally followed in riser design is conservative compared to the more accurate, but computationally more expensive, long term analysis methods. The study also investigates the important role that current plays in the strength performance of the riser in the touch down zone.

Wave Sector Dependent Contour Lines

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gro Sagli Baarholm ◽  
Sverre Haver ◽  
Carl M. Larsen
Keyword(s):  
Linear Response ◽  
Contour Line ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Wave Direction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Extreme Loads ◽  
Contour Lines ◽  
Term Analysis

This paper is concerned with estimating the response value corresponding to given annual exceedance probability. In principle, this requires that a full long term analysis is executed. For a linear response this can easily be done. For a non-linear response quantity however, where time domain simulations are required in order to obtain the short term stochastic structure a full long term analysis will be time consuming. An approximate method to determine the long-term extremes by considering only a few short term sea states is outlined. All sea states corresponding to a certain probability of occurrence and are given by a contour line of Hs, Tp for each wave direction. The advantage of the method is that a proper estimate of the long term extreme can be obtained by considering the most unfavourable sea state along the contour line. This will make possible practical estimation of the extreme loads the structure is exposed to. The purpose of the present paper is to illustrate how to apply directional contour lines in order to obtain a characteristic design value according to requirements regarding the marginal exceedance probability.

Long Term Analysis for Estimation of Wave Slamming Pressures for Spar Design

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ho-Joon Lim ◽  
Gunnar Lian ◽  
Sverre Haver ◽  
Oddgeir Dalane ◽  
Bonjun Koo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Tests ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Extreme Wave ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Norwegian Sea ◽  
Wave Slamming ◽  
Term Analysis

A long term analysis was performed to determine extreme wave slamming loads on the Aasta Hansteen Spar, the first production and storage Spar to be installed in the Norwegian Sea. The Spar will experience high slamming pressures on the hull due to harsh environments in the field. Extensive model tests were performed to measure the wave slamming pressure which is one of challenging design parameters. The slamming loads were measured with a 3×3 array of force transducer panels attached to the Spar hull. The extreme slamming loads were estimated from 3-hour simulations of the 100-yr and 10000-yr wave environments at the Aasta Hansteen field in the Norwegian Sea. The wave simulations included fourteen sea states, and each sea state was represented by as many as 20 realizations. Based on model test data, short term analysis of 3-hour extreme pressure at each tested sea state was performed using the Gumbel distribution. Due to high variability of 3-hour maximum pressures, a long term analysis was required to investigate the proper percentile level to be used in the design. The paper presents a long term statistical methodology for extreme wave slamming loads that is used to calculate long term slamming pressures corresponding to a specified annual exceedance probability of q (e.g., q = 10−2 and q = 10−4). The paper also derives the appropriate non-exceedance probability for a short term wave environment that reproduces the long term pressures of a specified annual exceedance probability, q. Various sensitivity analyses (e.g., on the two Gumbel parameters, number of realizations, etc.) were performed to validate the short term target percentiles and associated extreme pressures derived from this approach. Details of the model tests and methodology to define the design pressure profile above mean water level (MWL) are presented in a companion paper of this Conference.

Comparison of Design Wave Approach and Short Term Approach With Increased Wave Height in the Evaluation of Whipping Induced Bending Moment

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quentin Derbanne ◽  
Fabien Bigot ◽  
Guillaume de Hauteclocque
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Term Analysis

The evaluation of extreme bending moment corresponding to a 25 years return period requires very long simulations on a large number of sea states. This long term analysis is easy to do with a linear model of the ship response, but is impractical when using a time consuming model including non linear and slamming loads. In that case some simplified methods need to be applied. These methods are often based on Equivalent Design Waves (EDW) which are calibrated on the extreme linear value. The general practice is to define the EDW as a regular wave. A very simple method is to compute the non linear bending moment applying the pressure correction on the hull without recomputing the ship motions. A better method is to recompute in time domain the non linear ship response on this Design Wave. It is even possible to define a more realistic Design Wave, taking into account the frequency and directional content of the sea states used in the long term analysis: those waves are called Response Conditioned Wave and Directional Response Conditioned Waves. The different methods are applied to an Ultra Large Container Ship (ULCS). Hydro-structure calculations are carried out on a severe design sea state, taking into account Froude-Krylov pressure correction, slamming forces and whipping response. Results of a very long computation are compared to the results of the Design Wave approaches. Another method is proposed to compute very rare events. It is based on an artificial increase of the significant wave height of the sea state, and the assumption of the independence of the non linear effects to the significant wave height. Using this method it is possible, with a simulation of only a few hours, to predict a very rare short term event, corresponding to a very long return period. The results are compared to the Design Wave results and appear to be much more precise.

Environmental Contour Lines: A Method for Estimating Long Term Extremes by a Short Term Analysis

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Haver ◽  
S. R. Winterstein
Keyword(s):  
Major Part ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Environmental Load ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Contour Lines ◽  
Linear Problems ◽  
Term Analysis ◽  
Do So

Design of offshore structures involves the calculation of reliable estimates for loads and responses corresponding to annual exceedance probabilities of 10-2 and 10-4. In order to do so, all sources of inherent randomness must be accounted for, i.e. the short term variability of say the 3-hour extreme value in a given sea state should be combined with the long term variability of the sea state characteristics. This calls for some sort of a long term analysis. For linear or nearly linear problems this can easily be done, while such an analysis becomes more complicated and time consuming for strongly non-linear response problems. The difficulties are greater if a major part of the environmental load is of an on-off nature. This paper illustrates an approximate approach, the environmental contour line method, for obtaining proper estimates of long term extremes utilizing a short term analysis. Examples are also included.

Statistical Methods for Prediction of Characteristic Loads for Free Fall Lifeboats Based on CFD Screening Results

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vidar Tregde ◽  
Arne Nestegård
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Time History ◽  
Free Fall ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Screening Process ◽  
History Of ◽  
Term Analysis

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been used in a screening process to calculate characteristic loads for a Free Fall Lifeboat (FFLB) during impact and submergence. The link between various input, e.g. environmental conditions and host specific data, resulting structural loads and motion of the lifeboat is explored. The screening can be used together with host specific environmental conditions to find structural design loads and motion restrictions. Response based analysis have been developed for both short term and long term predictions. For the short term predictions a sea state given by (Hs, Tp) on the 100-year contour line is identified and a three hour irregular sea state is simulated. This time history of surface elevations is used for a large number of random lifeboat drops. From these random drops a distribution of wave height and corresponding wave steepness is derived which is then input to an interpolation in the database of CFD screening results. The resulting responses are fitted to a Weibull distribution and the 90% quantile in this short term load distribution is determined. The long term response analysis is further developed from the short term analysis. The short term distributions for each (Hs, Tp) are combined with the probability of occurrence of the sea state, and long term distributions are derived for the responses similar to the short term analysis. The screening results are used to identify critical load cases which are further investigated.

Long-Term Non-Linear Bending Moment Prediction

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quentin Derbanne ◽  
Jean-Franc¸ois Leguen ◽  
Thierry Dupau ◽  
Etienne Hamel
Keyword(s):  
Bending Moment ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Scatter Diagram ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Weibull Parameters ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Term Analysis ◽  
Simulation Time

Long-term analysis is more and more used to establish the design loads by performing direct loads evaluation. The long-term distribution of wave loads acting on a ship depends on the short-term contributions of the response in all the wave conditions the ship encounters in her life: sea state, relative heading, speed, load case... For each short-term condition the statistical parameters that describe the response are considered to be constant. Therefore a long-term analysis needs a correct evaluation of the short-term parameters that characterise the short-term response. The Weibull distribution is often used to model the extreme response on a given sea state. The precision of the long-term analysis depends directly on the precision of the Weibull parameters. The first part of this paper is a study of the influence of the simulations parameters (number of wave components, simulation time) and of the different methods used to fit a Weibull distribution on the bending moment extremes, on the precision of the Weibull parameters and on the extreme values. Every choice of parameter used for the final calculations will be justified. The conclusion is that by using a correct fitting method, and provided that there are at least 128 wave components, the overall precision is only dependent on the simulation time: the precision on the 10−5 extreme value is only ±6.4% with 400 extremes, and ±1.9% with 3200 extremes! In order to increase the precision of the evaluation of the Weibull parameters over the entire scatter diagram, without increasing the simulation time, a smoothing method is proposed, based on a polynomial smoothing of the A1/3 and A1/10 values obtained from linear and non linear calculations on the same wave signal, and on the method of moments. This method leads to an increase of precision of about 3 times, that is equivalent to increase the simulation time by 8 or 9! The second part of this paper presents the results of the long-term analysis carried out on 14 ships (ferries, container vessel, naval ships,...), using a non-linear sea-keeping time-domain software. Calculations have been done without forward speed in head waves and for all the sea states of the IACS scatter diagram (more than 200 sea states). The smoothing method has been used to compute all the Weibull coefficients. Results show that it is possible to model the non-linear effects by applying a non-linear coefficient on the linear bending moment for one speed, one scatter diagram and one extreme value probability. But this coefficient can’t be applied, and must be recalculated, if other cases are needed (other speed, other scatter diagram, relative heading distribution or other extreme value probabilities). Every ships will be compared in the same graph in order to evaluated the influence of the design hull form (as overall length and bow flare) on the non linear long term bending moments value (in hogging and in sagging). The calculations were focused on the case of a particular frigate where more parameters were studied as forward speed, operational profile (in speed and relative headings) and scatter diagram choice. In the third part results from model test performed on a height segmented model of the frigate will be compared to the short term results computed by the sea-keeping software. This frigate has been monitored for three years, and the strain measurements at sea will be compared to the numerical long-term analysis.

LOCA analysis of BWR-4/Mark-I nuclear power plant with TRACE

Kerntechnik ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 86 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-142
Author(s):  
J.-J. Huang ◽  
S.-W. Chen ◽  
J.-R. Wang ◽  
C. Shih ◽  
H.-T. Lin
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Containment System ◽  
Loss Of Coolant Accident ◽  
Main Steam Line ◽  
Main Steam ◽  
Temperature Responses ◽  
Term Analysis

Abstract This study established an RCS-Containment coupled model that integrates the reactor coolant system (RCS) and the containment system by using the TRACE code. The coupled model was used in both short-term and long-term loss of coolant accident (LOCA) analyses. Besides, the RELAP5/CONTAN model that only contains the containment system was also developed for comparison. For short-term analysis, three kinds of LOCA scenarios were investigated: the recirculation line break (RCLB), the main steam line break (MSLB), and the feedwater line break (FWLB). For long-term analysis, the dry-well and suppression pool temperature responses of the RCLB were studied. The analysis results of RELAP5/CONTAN and TRACE models are benchmarked with those of FSAR and RELAP5/GOTHIC models, and it appears that the results of the above four models are consistent in general trends.

scholarly journals Sensitivity Evaluation of Spectral Nudging Schemes in Historical Dynamical Downscaling for South Asia

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehwish Ramzan ◽  
Suryun Ham ◽  
Muhammad Amjad ◽  
Eun-Chul Chang ◽  
Kei Yoshimura
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Spectral Nudging ◽  
Sensitivity Evaluation ◽  
Constant Strength

Sensitivity experiments testing two scale-selective bias correction (SSBC) methods have been carried out to identify an optimal spectral nudging scheme for historical dynamically downscaled simulations of South Asia, using the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) protocol and the regional spectral model (RSM). Two time periods were selected under the category of short-term extreme summer and long-term decadal analysis. The new SSBC version applied nudging to full wind components, with an increased relaxation time in the lower model layers, incorporating a vertical weighted damping coefficient. An evaluation of the extraordinary weather conditions experienced in South Asia in the summer of 2005 confirmed the advantages of the new SSBC when modeling monsoon precipitation. Furthermore, the new SSBC scheme was found to predict precipitation and wind patterns more accurately than the older version in decadal analysis, which applies nudging only to the rotational wind field, with a constant strength at all heights.

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