Implementation of Reliability-Based Criteria for Corrosion Assessment

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riski Adianto ◽  
Maher Nessim ◽  
Shahani Kariyawasam ◽  
Terry Huang
Keyword(s):  
Hoop Stress ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Assessment Criteria ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Process Reliability ◽  
Corrosion Assessment ◽  
Pipeline Safety

In an era where pipeline safety is of paramount interest, vintage pipelines with corrosion have to be managed responsibly. Optimization of corrosion mitigation for these pipelines has a significant effect on the industry’s management systems and related costs. To help optimize the corrosion management process, reliability-based limit state design (LSD) corrosion assessment criteria have been developed for onshore pipeline as part of a joint industry project. The LSD approach is a simplified form of the reliability-based approach. It achieves risk or safety consistency within a certain tolerance, while utilizing a deterministic procedure that is easier to apply. The overall methodology and development of the criteria are described in a companion paper. This paper describes the application of the LSD corrosion criteria to real pipeline cases and evaluation of the results. The performance of the LSD criteria, as determined by the number of corrosion repairs required, was compared to that of the CSA Z662 deterministic assessment criteria and the full probabilistic criteria used by TransCanada Pipelines Ltd. (TCPL) to determine if the criteria lead to practical solutions for real cases. The CSA criteria use safety factors that are not directly based on the risk level associated with the pipeline, while the TCPL criteria utilize pipeline-specific reliability targets. The comparison was conducted using a comprehensive set of TCPL pipeline cases that covered a wide range of diameters (NPS 6 to 42), hoop stress-to-SMYS ratios (0.4 to 0.8) and corrosion densities (0.625 to 6508 features per km). The results show that the LSD criteria perform similarly to the TCPL reliability-based criteria, and that both are generally less conservative than the CSA deterministic criteria. The results demonstrate that the LSD criteria provide a simple and deterministic procedure that capitalizes on the benefits of more complex reliability analyses in eliminating unnecessary conservatism and focusing on the repairs required to achieve consistent safety levels for all cases. Thus, these criteria will enable operators to maximize risk reduction for the dollar spent.

Development of Reliability-Based Criteria for Corrosion Assessment

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riski Adianto ◽  
Maher Nessim ◽  
Dongliang Lu
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Assessment Criteria ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Feature Based ◽  
Corrosion Assessment ◽  
Ultimate Limit

Reliability-based corrosion assessment criteria were developed for onshore natural gas and low vapor pressure (LVP) pipelines as part of a joint industry project. The criteria are based on the limit states design (LSD) approach and are designed to achieve consistent safety levels for a broad range of pipeline designs and corrosion conditions. The assessment criteria were developed for two corrosion limit states categories: ultimate limit state, representing large leaks and ruptures; and leakage limit state, representing small leaks. For the ultimate limit state, a safety class system is used to characterize pipelines based on the anticipated severity of failure consequences as determined by pressure, diameter, product, population density and environmental sensitivity. Since the leakage limit state does not result in significant safety or environmental consequences, a single reliability target, applicable for all pipelines at all locations is used. The assessment criteria formulations are characterized by three elements: the equations used to calculate the characteristic demand (i.e. operating pressure) and capacity (i.e. burst pressure resistance at a corrosion feature); the characteristic values of the key input parameters for these formulas (such as diameter, pressure and feature depth); and the safety factors defining the characteristic demand as a ratio of characteristic capacity. The process used to calibrate safety factors and characteristic input parameter values that meet the desired reliability levels is described, and an assessment of the accuracy and consistency of the resulting checks in meeting the reliability targets is included. The assessment criteria include two methods of application: feature-based and section-based. The feature-based method divides the allowable failure probability equally between all features. It is simple to use, but conservative in nature. It is suitable for pipelines with a small number of corrosion features. The section-based method considers the failure probability of the corrosion features in a pipeline section as a group, and ensures that the total group failure probability is below the allowable threshold for the section. This method produces less conservative results than the feature-based method, but it requires more detailed calculations. It is suitable for all pipelines, and is particularly useful for those with a large number of features. The practical implications of the application of these criteria are described in the companion paper IPC2018-78608 Implementation of Reliability-based Criteria for Corrosion Assessment.

scholarly journals Serviceability limit state reliability-based design of augered cast-in-place piles in granular soils

2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (12) ◽  
pp. 1704-1715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seth C. Reddy ◽  
Armin W. Stuedlein
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Resistance Factor ◽  
Granular Soils ◽  
Serviceability Limit State ◽  
Reliability Based Design ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Load Displacement ◽  
Load And Resistance Factor

This study proposes a reliability-based design procedure to evaluate the allowable load for augered cast-in-place (ACIP) piles installed in predominately granular soils based on a prescribed level of reliability at the serviceability limit state. The ultimate limit state (ULS) ACIP pile–specific design model proposed in the companion paper is incorporated into a bivariate hyperbolic load–displacement model capable of describing the variability in the load–displacement relationship for a wide range of pile displacements. Following the approach outlined in the companion paper, distributions with truncated lower-bound capacities are incorporated into the reliability analyses. A lumped load-and-resistance factor is calibrated using a suitable performance function and Monte Carlo simulations. The average and conservative 95% lower-bound prediction intervals for the calibrated load-and-resistance factor resulting from the simulations are provided. Although unaccounted for in past studies, the slenderness ratio is shown to have significant influence on foundation reliability. Because of the low uncertainty in the proposed ULS pile capacity prediction model, the use of a truncated distribution has moderate influence on foundation reliability.

Limit State Philosophy in Pipeline Design

1987 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. P. Ellinas ◽  
P. W. J. Raven ◽  
A. C. Walker ◽  
P. Davies
Keyword(s):  
Structural Analysis ◽  
Safety Factor ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Structural Behavior ◽  
Major Conclusion ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Suitable Framework ◽  
General Aspects ◽  
Pipeline Design

This paper considers the application of the limit state philosophy of structural analysis to pipeline design. General aspects of the philosophy are discussed and the approach to the evaluation of safety factors is reviewed. The paper further considers the various limit and serviceability states which would be relevant to a pipeline and reviews the various factors which may require consideration, before a code embodying the limit state philosophy could be formulated. A review of the state of current knowledge on various aspects of geometry and material characteristics, loading and structural behavior is presented. It is intended that such a review can be used as the basis for a larger study to provide guidance and data for the evaluation of rational levels of safety factor. The major conclusion reached by the authors is that a limit state philosophy would be valuable in providing a suitable framework, which may highlight the significant aspects of pipeline design and which can most easily accommodate new requirements and results obtained from research.

scholarly journals The faint young Sun problem revisited with a 3-D climate–carbon model – Part 1

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 697-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Le Hir ◽  
Y. Teitler ◽  
F. Fluteau ◽  
Y. Donnadieu ◽  
P. Philippot
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Freezing Point ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
High Concentrations

Abstract. During the Archaean, the Sun's luminosity was 18 to 25% lower than the present day. One-dimensional radiative convective models (RCM) generally infer that high concentrations of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4) are required to prevent the early Earth's surface temperature from dropping below the freezing point of liquid water and satisfying the faint young Sun paradox (FYSP, an Earth temperature at least as warm as today). Using a one-dimensional (1-D) model, it was proposed in 2010 that the association of a reduced albedo and less reflective clouds may have been responsible for the maintenance of a warm climate during the Archaean without requiring high concentrations of atmospheric CO2 (pCO2). More recently, 3-D climate simulations have been performed using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMIC). These studies were able to solve the FYSP through a large range of carbon dioxide concentrations, from 0.6 bar with an EMIC to several millibars with AGCMs. To better understand this wide range in pCO2, we investigated the early Earth climate using an atmospheric GCM coupled to a slab ocean. Our simulations include the ice-albedo feedback and specific Archaean climatic factors such as a faster Earth rotation rate, high atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and/or CH4, a reduced continental surface, a saltier ocean, and different cloudiness. We estimated full glaciation thresholds for the early Archaean and quantified positive radiative forcing required to solve the FYSP. We also demonstrated why RCM and EMIC tend to overestimate greenhouse gas concentrations required to avoid full glaciations or solve the FYSP. Carbon cycle–climate interplays and conditions for sustaining pCO2 will be discussed in a companion paper.

scholarly journals A framework for corrosion assessment in metallic structures, from data analysis to risk based inspection

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-20
Author(s):  
Xiaofei Cui ◽  
Xiaoxia Liang ◽  
Ujjwal Bharadwaj
Keyword(s):  
Corrosion Damage ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Steel Bridge ◽  
Destructive Testing ◽  
Metallic Structures ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Corrosion Assessment ◽  
Metallic Corrosion ◽  
Non Destructive

Metallic corrosion is a big challenge affecting many sectors in a nation’s economy. Necessary corrosion prevention actions have to be taken in order to maintain the integrity of engineering assets susceptible to corrosion. This paper proposes a holistic framework to support the management of corrosion in metallic structures. It is a fully automation corrosion assessment process, with risk updated by Bayesian theory. Through analyzing the thickness data measured by non-destructive testing (NDT) techniques, the influence of corrosion on the component can be estimated using statistical methods, which will enable users to make decisions on maintenance based on quantitative information. A case study using corrosion data from a steel bridge is included to demonstrate the proposed framework. It improved the conventional corrosion analysis method by the proposed statistical approach using representative thickness data, which aims to take full use of the remaining life. This model can be adapted to a wide range of metallic structure suffering from corrosion damage.

scholarly journals A comprehensive analysis of pipeline safety factors and of the basic mechanical properties of pipe steels

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. V. Lisin ◽  
◽  
N. A. Makhutov ◽  
D. A. Neganov ◽  
V. M. Varshitskiy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Comprehensive Analysis ◽  
Pipe Steels ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Pipeline Safety

scholarly journals The role of Edge-Driven Convection in the generation of volcanism I: a 2D systematic study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Manjón-Cabeza Córdoba ◽  
Maxim Ballmer
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
High Volume ◽  
Oceanic Lithosphere ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Continental Lithosphere ◽  
Transient Phenomenon ◽  
Mantle Viscosity ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. The origin of intraplate volcanism is not explained by the plate tectonic theory, and several models have been put forward for explanation. One of these models involves Edge-Driven Convection (EDC), in which cold and thick continental lithosphere is juxtaposed to warm and thin oceanic lithosphere to trigger convective instability. To test whether EDC can produce long-lived high-volume magmatism, we run numerical models of EDC for a wide range of mantle properties and edge (i.e., the oceanic-continental transition) geometries. We find that the most important parameters that govern EDC are the rheological paramaters mantle viscosity η0 and activation energy Ea. However, even the maximum melting volumes found in our models are insufficient to account for island-building volcanism on old seafloor, such as at the Canary Islands and Cape Verde. Also, beneath old seafloor, localized EDC-related melting commonly transitions into widespread melting due to small-scale sublithospheric convection, inconsistent with the distribution of volcanism at these volcanic chains. In turn, EDC is a good candidate to sustain the formation of small seamounts on young seafloor, as it is a highly transient phenomenon that occurs in all our models soon after initiation. In a companion paper, we investigate the implications of interaction of EDC with mantle-plume activity.

scholarly journals The role of edge-driven convection in the generation of volcanism – Part 1: A 2D systematic study

Solid Earth ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 613-632
Author(s):  
Antonio Manjón-Cabeza Córdoba ◽  
Maxim D. Ballmer
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
High Volume ◽  
Oceanic Lithosphere ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Rheological Parameters ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Transient Phenomenon ◽  
Mantle Viscosity ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. The origin of intraplate volcanism is not explained by plate tectonic theory, and several models have been put forward for explanation. One of these models involves edge-driven convection (EDC), in which cold and thick continental lithosphere is juxtaposed with warm and thin oceanic lithosphere to trigger convective instability. To test whether EDC can produce long-lived high-volume magmatism, we run numerical models of EDC for a wide range of mantle properties and edge (i.e., the oceanic–continental transition) geometries. We find that the most important parameters that govern EDC are the rheological parameters mantle viscosity η0 and activation energy Ea. However, even the maximum melting volumes predicted by our most extreme cases are insufficient to account for island-building volcanism on old seafloor, such as at the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde. Also, beneath old seafloor, localized EDC-related melting commonly transitions into widespread melting due to small-scale sublithospheric convection, inconsistent with the distribution of volcanism at these volcano chains. In turn, EDC is a good candidate to sustain the formation of small seamounts on young seafloor, as it is a highly transient phenomenon that occurs in all our models soon after initiation. In a companion paper, we investigate the implications of interaction of EDC with mantle plume activity (Manjón-Cabeza Córdoba and Ballmer, 2021).

scholarly journals A Framework for Compiling Quantifications of Marine Biosecurity Risk Factors Associated With Common Vessel Types

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mimi W. Tzeng ◽  
Oliver Floerl ◽  
Anastasija Zaiko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Indigenous Species ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
New Locations ◽  
Selection Of

Globally, movements of commercial vessels can facilitate the spread of marine non-indigenous species (NIS) beyond their current biogeographic ranges. Authorities at potential destination locations employ a number of biosecurity risk assessment strategies to estimate threat levels from potential origin locations, vulnerability levels of specific destination regions, or the consequences of successful establishment of particular NIS species. Among the many factors and processes that have an influence on the probability that NIS will survive transport and establish successfully at new locations, vessel type has been identified as an important risk factor. Different vessel types have different structural and operational characteristics that affect their overall level of marine biosecurity risk. Several recent studies have examined subsets of vessel types or vessel characteristics for their ability to spread NIS. While high-quality information is available via these endeavors, it is fragmented and not readily available as an integrated resource to support biosecurity regulators or other end-users. In this study, we synthesize available empirical data on a wide range of vessel types and characteristics to develop a framework that allows systematic quantification of the relative risk of NIS transfer by common commercial vessel types. We explain our approach for constructing the framework, from selection of key risk factors for inclusion, to selection of which datasets to use for those risk factors. The framework output is a set of risk scores which denote the relative biosecurity risk of common commercial vessel types. To demonstrate a potential application of our framework, we applied the risk scores to vessel visit data for commercial ports around New Zealand and assigned a relative risk level per port based on the arrival frequencies of different vessel types. The resulting per-port risk levels matched closely with the results of a prior benchmark study that employed state-of-the-art risk modeling approaches. Our framework is based on globally relevant data, is simple to implement, and is adaptable as new empirical information arises. It can serve as a simple tool to determine the relative levels of vessel-related biosecurity risk associated with geographic shipping hubs, or it can be used as a vessel-specific “risk mask” for maritime transport models. It can be applied to any scientific or policy question that requires information on vessel type differences in relation to marine biosecurity risk.

A new response surface method based on the adaptive bivariate cut-HDMR

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenliang Fan ◽  
Wei Shen ◽  
Qingbin Zhang ◽  
Alfredo H.-S. Ang
Keyword(s):  
Response Surface ◽  
Response Surface Method ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Surface Method ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Cross Terms ◽  
Order Polynomial ◽  
Component Function

Purpose The purpose of this study is to improve the efficiency and accuracy of response surface method (RSM), as well as its robustness. Design/methodology/approach By introducing cut-high-dimensional representation model (HDMR), the delineation of cross terms and the constitution analysis of component function, a new adaptive RSM is presented for reliability calculation, where a sampling scheme is also proposed to help constructing response surface close to limit-state. Findings The proposed method has a more feasible process of evaluating undetermined coefficients of each component function than traditional RSM, and performs well in terms of balancing the efficiency and accuracy when compared to the traditional second-order polynomial RSM. Moreover, the proposed method is robust on the parameter in a wide range, indicating that it is able to obtain convergent result in a wide feasible domain of sample points. Originality/value This study constructed an adaptive bivariate cut-HDMR by introducing delineation of cross-terms and constitution of univariate component function; and a new sampling technique is proposed.

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