Risk Based Strategy for the Development of an Emergency Pipeline Repair System (EPRS)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Alani ◽  
Graham D. Goodfellow ◽  
Dennis Keen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Repair System ◽  
Pipeline Network ◽  
Expected Time ◽  
Emergency Repair ◽  
Offshore Pipeline ◽  
Timely Access ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Time Required

This paper presents an overview of the various components of an emergency pipeline repair system which should be in place in order to act effectively and efficiently during an emergency pipeline repair scenario. The condition of pipelines during operation is typically monitored by means of external and internal inspections. These inspections allow for planned intervention when a pipeline is found to be deteriorating. A failure to inspect adequately for time dependent threats, or randomly occurring events such as third party interaction, could result in a pipeline failure, leading to a requirement to rapidly return to operation and thus the need for an emergency repair. An Emergency Pipeline Repair System (EPRS) is therefore an essential part of a pipeline integrity management system. The primary purpose of the EPRS is to ensure that pipeline operators have the necessary level of readiness to allow an emergency repair to be carried out, thus minimising the economic consequences of having a pipeline out of service, whilst optimising the cost of purchasing and maintaining equipment and spares. In general, pipeline operators will have some emergency repair procedures to cater for unplanned or unexpected incidents. However, to complete an emergency repair efficiently and effectively, the availability of adequate spare materials and timely access to the damage location is required. For a large pipeline network, satisfying these requirements can be challenging. This paper discusses some basic elements of an EPRS and describes a case study of the development of a risk based EPRS strategy for an offshore pipeline operator. This approach involves the identification of credible hazards that can lead to damage requiring an emergency repair, and identification of repair options. The relative importance of the individual pipelines, in terms of their availability requirement, and the expected time required to complete an emergency repair are then taken into account. This enables the pipelines to be ranked based on the consequence of failure. Pipelines with consequence rankings that are considered unacceptable are therefore highlighted, and EPRS readiness related to those pipelines can subsequently be optimised. Recommendations for the development of an EPRS for an onshore or offshore pipeline network are also made.

The Role of Threat and Economic Uncertainty in Support for Scottish Independence

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Kopasker
Keyword(s):  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Perceived Threat ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Levels Of Support

Existing research has consistently shown that perceptions of the potential economic consequences of Scottish independence are vital to levels of support for constitutional change. This paper attempts to investigate the mechanism by which expectations of the economic consequences of independence are formed. A hypothesised causal micro-level mechanism is tested that relates constitutional preferences to the existing skill investments of the individual. Evidence is presented that larger skill investments are associated with a greater likelihood of perceiving economic threats from independence. Additionally, greater perceived threat results in lower support for independence. The impact of uncertainty on both positive and negative economic expectations is also examined. While uncertainty has little effect on negative expectations, it significantly reduces the likelihood of those with positive expectations supporting independence. Overall, it appears that a general economy-wide threat is most significant, and it is conjectured that this stems a lack of information on macroeconomic governance credentials.

scholarly journals Statistical Uncertainty of DNS in Geometries without Homogeneous Directions

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1399
Author(s):  
Jure Oder ◽  
Cédric Flageul ◽  
Iztok Tiselj
Keyword(s):  
Channel Flow ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Time Integration ◽  
Navier Stokes ◽  
Statistical Uncertainty ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Averaging Time ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Time Required

In this paper, we present uncertainties of statistical quantities of direct numerical simulations (DNS) with small numerical errors. The uncertainties are analysed for channel flow and a flow separation case in a confined backward facing step (BFS) geometry. The infinite channel flow case has two homogeneous directions and this is usually exploited to speed-up the convergence of the results. As we show, such a procedure reduces statistical uncertainties of the results by up to an order of magnitude. This effect is strongest in the near wall regions. In the case of flow over a confined BFS, there are no such directions and thus very long integration times are required. The individual statistical quantities converge with the square root of time integration so, in order to improve the uncertainty by a factor of two, the simulation has to be prolonged by a factor of four. We provide an estimator that can be used to evaluate a priori the DNS relative statistical uncertainties from results obtained with a Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes simulation. In the DNS, the estimator can be used to predict the averaging time and with it the simulation time required to achieve a certain relative statistical uncertainty of results. For accurate evaluation of averages and their uncertainties, it is not required to use every time step of the DNS. We observe that statistical uncertainty of the results is uninfluenced by reducing the number of samples to the point where the period between two consecutive samples measured in Courant–Friedrichss–Levy (CFL) condition units is below one. Nevertheless, crossing this limit, the estimates of uncertainties start to exhibit significant growth.

scholarly journals A Model for Developing Existing Ports Considering Economic Impact and Network Connectivity

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3705
Author(s):  
Veterina Nosadila Riaventin ◽  
Sofyan Dwi Cahyo ◽  
Ivan Kristianto Singgih
Keyword(s):  
Network Connectivity ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Real Problem ◽  
Container Transportation ◽  
Container Ports ◽  
Investment Priority ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Transportation Flows ◽  
Port Clusters

This study discusses the problem of determining which container port should be developed within an existing network and when this should be carried out. A case study of Indonesia’s port network is presented, where several new ports are to be improved to ensure smooth interisland transportation flows of goods. The effects of the investment on economic consequences and increased network connectivity are assessed. When improving the ports, we consider that the available budget limits the investment. The network connectivity is evaluated by considering the number of reachable ports from the developed ports or transportation time required from other ports within the same port cluster. Based on our knowledge, our study is the first one that discusses the investment problem in multiple container ports under single management, as well as its effects regarding the increase in container flows. The problem is introduced and three mathematical models are proposed and used to solve a real problem. The results show that different models have different improved aspects of container transportation flows—e.g., a balanced improvement of the whole port network (Model 2) and appropriate investment priority for port clusters (Model 3).

scholarly journals Effectiveness of brushing teeth in patients with reduced oral hygiene by laypeople: a randomized, controlled study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Greta Barbe ◽  
Aya Al-Barwari ◽  
Stefanie Hamacher ◽  
Renate Deinzer ◽  
Ulrike Weik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oral Hygiene ◽  
Group Intervention ◽  
Controlled Study ◽  
Care Gap ◽  
Parallel Group ◽  
Dental Professional ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Powered Toothbrush ◽  
Dental Professionals

Abstract Background To evaluate the success of plaque reduction after external toothbrushing by instructed laypeople versus dental professionals using either a manual or powered toothbrush. Longitudinal, randomized, parallel-group intervention study in periodontitis patients with reduced oral hygiene quality undergoing anti-infective therapy. Patients were randomly and equally assigned to one of four groups: laypeople using a manual or powered toothbrush or dental professionals using a manual or powered toothbrush. Plaque reduction (Quigley–Hein-Index (QHI), Marginal Plaque Index (MPI)), gingivitis (papilla bleeding index), and cleaning time (seconds) were investigated. Results Thirty-nine patients participated in the study. Neither the choice of toothbrush (p = 0.399) nor the use of a dental professional (p = 0.790) had a significant influence on plaque levels achieved. However, multivariate modeling indicated statistically significant differences in the external cleaning time between brushing groups, with longer time required by laypeople (p = 0.002) and longer use of the powered toothbrush (p = 0.024). Conclusion When the ability to carry out personal oral hygiene is reduced, external brushing by dental professionals or instructed laypeople who meet previously defined criteria such as sufficient personal oral hygiene at home could help to fill the emerging dental care gap. A combination of oral hygiene approaches adapted to the individual needs of the patients in need of external help is necessary for optimum oral hygiene. Trial registration: German Clinical Trials register (https://www.germanctr.de; number DRKS00018779; date of registration 04/11/2019).

scholarly journals Reinsurance of Third Party Motor Insurance and Motor Insurance in Finland

1962 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 174-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teivo Pentikäinen
Keyword(s):  
Point Of View ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Lump Sum ◽  
Legal Limits ◽  
Physical Injuries ◽  
Insurance Cover ◽  
Motor Insurance ◽  
Full Compensation ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Risk Limits

The need and extent of reinsurance of third party motor insurance depends fundamentally on the risk limits prescribed in the legislation of the country in question (and on the other hand the legal limits of the compulsory insurance may have been fixed with regard to the reasonable possibilities of the insurers getting reinsurance). There are two kinds of risk limits which are applied in different countries: total limits and individual limits. The former defines the maximum joint indemnity for an accident, paid to all claiments together, and the latter defines the maximum indemnity paid to each claiment separately. From the social point of view limits of this sort are not expedient, especially in regard to physical injuries. Owing to this total limit the indemnity for a single claiment can depend on the number of other claiments, which is quite inadequate from the point of view of the actual need to get insurance cover for injuries. The individual lump sum limit allows full compensation for slight injuries but can cut down the compensation for serious ones, which is an irrational method of settling an indemnity system. Owing to these risk limits motor car drivers may also be held responsible for the extra claims personally on the basis of civil (or criminal) law, which compels them to take an extra third party liability insurance (which often also has risk limits).

scholarly journals Mahindra First Choice

2021 ◽  
pp. 354-362
Author(s):  
Ben Jackson ◽  
Genevieve Joy
Keyword(s):  
Third Party ◽  
Repair System ◽  
Market Failures ◽  
System A ◽  
Car Market ◽  
System P ◽  
First Choice ◽  
Used Car ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Trust Information

Mahindra Firstchoice illustrates the process of ecosystem orchestration in the context of the second-hand car market in India. It describes how Mahindra Firstchoice mapped the ecosystem in relation to six key parties—consumers who were buyers, consumers who were sellers, car manufacturers, independent used-car dealers, independent car service workshops, and banks. It then identified the bottlenecks and ‘pain points’ that afflicted the six parties. The used-car market did not function properly because of lack of trust, information, and transparency and Mahindra Firstchoice worked with the parties to identify solutions to the market failures. These involved, amongst other things, the creation of third-party car inspection services, the establishment of a multi-brand car-dealer franchise, a warranty system, a bluebook of second-hand prices and transactions, and a car diagnosis and repair system.

scholarly journals Unobtrusive monitoring: Statistical dissemination latency estimation in Bitcoin’s peer-to-peer network

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0243475
Author(s):  
David Mödinger ◽  
Jan-Hendrik Lorenz ◽  
Rens W. van der Heijden ◽  
Franz J. Hauck
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Peer To Peer ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Network Resources ◽  
Connection Number ◽  
Peer Network ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Peer To Peer Network

The cryptocurrency system Bitcoin uses a peer-to-peer network to distribute new transactions to all participants. For risk estimation and usability aspects of Bitcoin applications, it is necessary to know the time required to disseminate a transaction within the network. Unfortunately, this time is not immediately obvious and hard to acquire. Measuring the dissemination latency requires many connections into the Bitcoin network, wasting network resources. Some third parties operate that way and publish large scale measurements. Relying on these measurements introduces a dependency and requires additional trust. This work describes how to unobtrusively acquire reliable estimates of the dissemination latencies for transactions without involving a third party. The dissemination latency is modelled with a lognormal distribution, and we estimate their parameters using a Bayesian model that can be updated dynamically. Our approach provides reliable estimates even when using only eight connections, the minimum connection number used by the default Bitcoin client. We provide an implementation of our approach as well as datasets for modelling and evaluation. Our approach, while slightly underestimating the latency distribution, is largely congruent with observed dissemination latencies.

scholarly journals What happens when the nuclear power plant goes? Social and economic consequences of dismantling for the site and its population

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 265-266
Author(s):  
Caroline Kramer
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Operating Time ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Intention To Leave ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Power Station ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Social Scientific ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. This project deals with the question of what the overall social and economic consequences of dismantling a nuclear power station are for the population and the site. Various disciplines and specialist fields are concerned with questions that touch on the topic of dismantling nuclear technical facilities; however, there are so far no research projects that examined these processes from social scientific, geographic and engineering scientific perspectives. This article concentrates predominantly on the former perspective of the dismantling. Within the framework of this project the affected population and experts from the communities were asked how they deal with the dismantling of the nuclear power stations, which were triggered by the rapid change in energy policy following the accident in Fukushima in 2011. It became clear that there were various strategies for dealing with this process depending on the location. This was the reason to follow up the question of coping with this process at different locations. It could be shown, for example, that the consequences of this event were essentially determined by how the community was already positioned beforehand, e.g. whether the economic situation was a monostructure or whether long-term considerations about the future had already been made during the operating time of the power station. At the individual level, the “prerequisites” in the sense of individual value orientation and the spatially related identity, were also essentially responsible for how the risks of the dismantling and the further development of the community were perceived and evaluated. Furthermore, it was compiled from where the people extracted their information, which sources had a high or low credibility, which worries they have with respect to the near future and whether they have the intention to leave the community. In this project it became clear that there were examples of best practice with respect to dealing with this rapid and fundamental change at the locations.

scholarly journals How to Implement Safe, Efficient and Cost-Effective SARS-CoV-2 Testing in Urban and Rural Schools within One Month

COVID ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 717-727
Author(s):  
Parastoo Kheiroddin ◽  
Magdalena Gründl ◽  
Michael Althammer ◽  
Patricia Schöberl ◽  
Linda Plail ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Transfer ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Testing System ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Local Involvement ◽  
Working Day ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Time Required

(1) Background: With vaccination and new variants of SARS-CoV-2 on the horizon, efficient testing in schools may enable prevention of mass infection outbreaks, keeping schools safe places and buying time until decisions on feasibility and the necessity of vaccination in children and youth are made. We established, in the course of the WICOVIR (Where Is the COrona VIRus) study, that gargle-based pool-PCR testing offers a feasible, efficient, and safe testing system for schools in Germany when applied by central university laboratories. (2) Objectives: We evaluated whether this approach can be implemented in different rural and urban settings. (3) Methods: We assessed the arrangements required for successful implementation of the WICOVIR approach in a variety of settings in terms of transport logistics, data transfer and pre-existing laboratory set-up, as well as the time required to establish the set-up. (4) Results: We found that once regulatory issues have been overcome, all challenges pertaining to logistics, data transfer, and laboratory testing on different platforms can be solved within one month. Pooling and depooling of samples down to the individual test result were achievable within one working day in all settings. Local involvement of the community and decentralized set-ups were keys for success. (5) Conclusion: The WICOVIR gargle-based pool-PCR system is so robust and simple that it can be implemented within one month in all settings now or in future pandemics.

scholarly journals Platform for Integrating and Testing Tools which Transform Natural Language Queries into SPARQL Queries

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 138-152
Author(s):  
I. S. Postanogov ◽  
I. A. Turova
Keyword(s):  
Natural Language ◽  
Data Flow ◽  
Data Access ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Graphical Form ◽  
Testing Tools ◽  
Party Transformation ◽  
The Individual

In the paper we discuss how to support the process of creating tools which transform natural language (NL) queries into SPARQL queries (hereinafter referred to as a transformation tool). In the introduction, we describe the relevance of the task of understanding natural language queries by information systems, as well as the advantages of using ontologies as a means of representing knowledge for solving this problem. This ontology-based data access approach can be also used in systems which provide natural language interface to databases. Based on the analysis of problems related to the integration and testing of existing transformation tools, as well as to support the creation and testing own transformation modules, the concept of a software platform that simplifies these tasks is proposed. The platform architecture satisfies the requirements for ease of connecting third party transformation tools, reusing individual modules, as well as integrating the resulting transformation tools into other systems, including testing systems. The building blocks of the created transformation systems are the individual transformation modules packaged in Docker containers. Program access to each module is carried out using gRPC. Modules loaded into the platform can be built into the transformation pipeline automatically or manually using the built-in third party SciVi data flow diagram editor. Compatibility of individual modules is controlled by automatic analysis of application programming interfaces. The resulting pipeline is combined according to specified data flow into a single multi-container application that can be integrated into other systems, as well as tested on extendable test suites. The expected and actual results of the query transformation are available for viewing in graphical form in the visualization tool developed earlier.

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