Application of Logistic Mathematical Model to Simulate the Consumption of Natural Gas in Brazil Until 2020

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudemir Duca Vasconcelos ◽  
Sérgio Ricardo Lourenço ◽  
Antonio Carlos Gracias ◽  
Valter Librais
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Environmental Benefits ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Million Cubic Meter

Over the next two decades Brazil expects to see an increasing share of energy provided by natural gas. Natural gas use in 2010 was 10.2% of the total energy consumption and comprised 73 million cubic meter per day. Natural gas is considered one of the main energy sources which contributes and will contribute to the development of the country by providing economic, social and environmental benefits. This work uses population dynamics mathematical model (Verhulst) in order to analyze the evolution of natural gas consumption in Brazil within a forecast until 2020. The Verhulst model, also known as “logistic”, has been advanced in its application and shows that the population dynamics mathematical models, within their basic assumptions, may allow estimating the growth of a population or other variable with the same characteristic. The calculation to solve the differential equations, linear regression, method of least squares and graphics were performed using the MatLab software. Through simulations it was found that the mathematical model can be applied to natural gas consumption in Brazil. Simulations using the proposed model show a tendency of saturation in the consumption between 70 and 90 million cubic meters per day. These numbers are below the projected numbers until 2020 according to forecast presented in the energy plan. The results of this study indicate that the growth of natural gas consumption is stable and is within the limit of saturation related to the Brazilian market.

Energy Development in Malaysia

1988 ◽  
Vol 6 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 336-341
Author(s):  
YB Dato' Murad Hashim
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Security Of Supply ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Coal Gas ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Excess Production ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Year 2000

The Malaysian governments Four Fuel Energy Policy is concerned with security of supply and the need to meet economic development targets through greater use of natural gas, hydropower and with imported coal. Gas reserves are 52 trillion cu. ft. and hydropower potential 29,000MW. Coal is included because of the enormous supplies available worldwide. Indigenous natural gas consumption is expected to grow at 9% p.a. till the year 2000 and to account for 40% of the total energy consumption. The Peninsula Gas Utilisation project will reduce the use of oil in electricity generation, provide it for steel manufacture and deliver gas to the domestic market. Natural gas will be used increasingly in transportation and for petrochemicals, excess production is destined for export.

scholarly journals Forecasting residential natural gas consumption in Egypt

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 297-308
Author(s):  
Mohamed Ali Ismail ◽  
Eman Mahmoud Abd El-Metaal
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cost Of Energy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
The Cost

Purpose This paper aims to obtain accurate forecasts of the hourly residential natural gas consumption, in Egypt, taken into consideration the volatile multiple seasonal nature of the gas series. This matter helps in both minimizing the cost of energy and maintaining the reliability of the Egyptian power system as well. Design/methodology/approach Double seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to obtain accurate forecasts of the hourly Egyptian gas consumption series. This model captures both daily and weekly seasonal patterns apparent in the series as well as the volatility of the series. Findings Using the mean absolute percentage error to check the forecasting accuracy of the model, it is proved that the produced outcomes are accurate. Therefore, the proposed model could be recommended for forecasting the Egyptian natural gas consumption. Originality/value The contribution of this research lies in the ingenuity of using time series models that accommodate both daily and weekly seasonal patterns, which have not been taken into consideration before, in addition to the series volatility to forecast hourly consumption of natural gas in Egypt.

Short-Term Forecasting of Natural Gas Consumption Using Factor Selection Algorithm and Optimized Support Vector Regression

2018 ◽  
Vol 141 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nan Wei ◽  
Changjun Li ◽  
Chan Li ◽  
Hanyu Xie ◽  
Zhongwei Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Selection Algorithm ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption

Forecasting of natural gas consumption has been essential for natural gas companies, customers, and governments. However, accurate forecasting of natural gas consumption is difficult, due to the cyclical change of the consumption and the complexity of the factors that influence the consumption. In this work, we constructed a hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) model to predict the short-term natural gas consumption and examine the effects of the factors in the consumption cycle. The proposed model combines factor selection algorithm (FSA), life genetic algorithm (LGA), and support vector regression (SVR), namely, as FSA-LGA-SVR. FSA is used to select factors automatically for different period based on correlation analysis. The LGA optimized SVR is utilized to provide the prediction of time series data. To avoid being trapped in local minima, the hyper-parameters of SVR are determined by LGA, which is enhanced due to newly added “learning” and “death” operations in conventional genetic algorithm. Additionally, in order to examine the effects of the factors in different period, we utilized the recent data of three big cities in Greece and divided the data into 12 subseries. The prediction results demonstrated that the proposed model can give a better performance of short-term natural gas consumption forecasting compared to the estimation value of existing models. Particularly, the mean absolute range normalized errors of the proposed model in Athens, Thessaloniki, and Larisa are 1.90%, 2.26%, and 2.12%, respectively.

Natural Gas Transmission Opening Trade in Mexico: Energy and Environmental Benefits

1998 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rene Perez Polanco ◽  
Enrique Rodriguez Betancourt
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Operational Reliability ◽  
Environmental Benefits ◽  
Natural Gas Transmission ◽  
Mexican Government ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
International Investors ◽  
Regulatory Commission ◽  
Energy Regulatory

This paper provides a summary of some management-technical changes and Pemex’s actions to face challenges derived from transportation, distribution, storage and marketing natural gas liberalization. Since natural gas consumption hasn’t shown uniform growth for all consumer sectors, the Mexican Government decided to change the “rules of the game” to guarantee that such operations could attain the efficiency levels planned for 1995–2000. Thus, Constitutional Article 27 was reformed in 1995, the Energy Regulatory Commission and Natural Gas Regulation were created. This opened the doors to domestic and international investors to participate in transportation and distribution projects. So, to face this challenges and new missions, PGPB started working on new programs and projects to update it’s pipeline transmission system, such as risk management, operational reliability, quality systems, scada operation, reengineering business procedures and strategic planning to improve benefits and reduce incident/accidents. Finally, the energetic and environmental advantages of natural gas are addressed.

scholarly journals Forecasting Natural Gas Consumption of China Using a Novel Grey Model

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chengli Zheng ◽  
Wen-Ze Wu ◽  
Jianming Jiang ◽  
Qi Li
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Original Series ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Grey Models ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption

As is known, natural gas consumption has been acted as an extremely important role in energy market of China, and this paper is to present a novel grey model which is based on the optimized nonhomogeneous grey model (ONGM (1,1)) in order to accurately predict natural gas consumption. This study begins with proving that prediction results are independent of the first entry of original series using the product theory of determinant; on this basis, it is a reliable approach by inserting an arbitrary number in front of the first entry of original series to extract messages, which has been proved that it is an appreciable approach to increase prediction accuracy of the traditional grey model in the earlier literature. An empirical example often appeared in testing for prediction accuracy of the grey model is utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model; the numerical results indicate that the proposed model has a better prediction performance than other commonly used grey models. Finally, the proposed model is applied to predict China’s natural gas consumption from 2019 to 2023 in order to provide some valuable information for energy sectors and related enterprises.

scholarly journals The Effect of Natural Gas Price liberalization on Natural Gas Consumption in Residential sector in Iran

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 315-325
Author(s):  
Vahid Ghorbani Pashakolaei ◽  
Mohammad Babazade ◽  
Khalil Ghadimi Dizaj
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Million Cubic Meter

The Balance between demand and supply of energy carriers is an important issue. Price liberalization of natural gas is one of the best solutions to reduce natural gas consumption so we investigated this matter in our study. In this study use of autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model model and results indicated that in first scenario (2011-13) annual growth of consumption will be 2.7 percent and its second scenario (2011-15) annual growth of consumption will be 4.2 percent. In first scenario annual consumption will be 36258.56, 36075.51 and 37352.13 million cubic meter respectively and in second scenario will be 37965.73, 38003.13, 39414.1, 41454 and 43931.57 13 million cubic meter respectively. Predict that liberalization in first and second scenario will be decrease 29.19 and 37.21 milliard cubic meter of total consumption in these years respectively. Keywords: liberalization, autoregressive distributed lag, error correction, natural gas

Natural Gas Consumption Reducing in Aluminum Melting Furnaces by Heat Recovery of Flue

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 17-22
Author(s):  
Vasile Bratu ◽  
Aurel Gaba ◽  
Elena Valentina Stoian ◽  
Florina Violeta Anghelina
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Computer Software ◽  
Melting Furnace ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Regenerative Burner ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Energy Balances ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Consumption Saving

Abstract This article presents different solutions to reduce natural gas consumptions of the aluminum melting furnaces, through recovery of the heat from flue gases. In order to be able to analyze the recovery solutions, a mathematical model for energy balance of these furnaces was adapted. This mathematical model allows drawing up energy balances together with the main working technique and economical parameters of these types of furnaces, in actual conditions, and the same, under optimizing conditions, by applying recovery solutions. The mathematical model which can elaborate energy balances for aluminum melting furnaces, was transposed in M. Excel based software, where the quantification of different solutions for natural gas consumption saving is possible. One of the applications of this computer software for an aluminum melting furnace, either for actual working conditions or per upgraded furnace by use an air pre-heater, materials pre-heater, or a regenerative burner system, is presented in this article.

EXPERIENCE, PROSPECTS AND PROBLEMS OF COOPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND TURKMENISTAN IN THE FIELDOF NATURAL GAS

2019 ◽  
pp. 323-329
Author(s):  
Y. JIA
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Multilateral Cooperation ◽  
Industrial Chain ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption

Since 2007, the use of natural gas in China depends on the import, and with an increase in natural gas consumption, gas imports are also constantly growing. In 2018, Chinas natural gas imports approached 100 billion cubic meters, which is 70 times more than in 2006. In recent years, increasing attention has been paid to the use of natural gas in China. Turkmenistan is Chinas main source of pipeline gas imports, and China is Turkmenistans largest exporter of natural gas. In the framework of the traditional model of oil and gas cooperation, China and Turkmenistan are facing such problems as the uniform content of cooperation, lack of close ties in the field of multilateral cooperation and slow progress in the development of the entire industrial chain. Cooperation between China and Central Asia in the field of oil and gas is increasingly affecting the nerves of other countries, except the five countries of Central Asia, but including Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Iran and other countries of the Middle East, Japan, South Korea, etc. and even the European Union and the USA. Despite the favorable trading environment for both parties, there are also problems in the domestic market of Turkmenistan and the risks of international competition.

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