Obtaining Corrosion Growth Rates From Repeat In-Line Inspection Runs and Dealing With the Measurement Uncertainties

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maher Nessim ◽  
Jane Dawson ◽  
Rafael Mora ◽  
Sherif Hassanein
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Measurement Error ◽  
Measurement Uncertainty ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Field Investigations ◽  
Sample Data ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Essential Input ◽  
Measurement Uncertainties

The ability to accurately determine the rate of corrosion growth along a pipeline is an essential input into a number of key integrity management decisions. For example, corrosion rates are needed to predict pipeline reliability (probability of failure and/or probability of exceedance) as a function of time, to identify the need for and timing of field investigations and/or repairs and to determine optimum re-inspection intervals to name just a few applications. As more and more pipelines are now being inspected using intelligent in-line inspection (ILI) tools for a second or even third or fourth time, pipeline operators require reliable guidelines for comparing repeat ILI data sets to obtain valid corrosion growth rates. Because of the measurement uncertainties associated with corrosion size estimated from a single ILI run, the corrosion growth rate calculated from consecutive ILI runs has a degree of uncertainty that needs to be considered in determining valid and accurate corrosion growth rates. The ratio between the measured corrosion growth and the measurement error is an important parameter in determining a meaningful distribution of the corrosion growth rate either when performing defect to defect comparisons or when comparing the defect populations in pipeline segments. When this ratio is small the associated uncertainty can be too large to make meaningful probabilistic inferences. As the ratio increases, the effect of measurement uncertainty becomes more manageable, allowing growth rate distributions to be calculated with reasonable confidence. This paper describes an approach to define the probability distribution of corrosion growth rates as a function of a simple parameter that characterizes the ratio between the ILI-observed corrosion growth and the ILI measurement error. This approach has been developed as part of an ongoing PRCI-sponsored research project to produce procedures for determining and validating corrosion growth rates from repeat ILI runs. The paper also provides examples using sample data from repeat ILI runs showing the application of these procedures, the treatment of measurement uncertainty, the resulting corrosion growth rate information that can be obtained and the associated level of confidence in the results.

A Practical Application to Calculating Corrosion Growth Rates by Comparing Successive ILI Runs From Different ILI Vendors

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Spencer ◽  
Shahani Kariyawasam ◽  
Cathy Tetreault ◽  
Jon Wharf
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Inspection Data ◽  
Over Time

Corrosion growth rates are an essential input into an Integrity Management Program but they can often be the largest source of uncertainty and error. A relatively simple method to estimate a corrosion growth rate is to compare the size of a corrosion anomaly over time and the most practical way to do this for a whole pipeline system is via the use of In-Line Inspection (ILI). However, the reported depth of the anomaly following an ILI run contains measurement uncertainties, i.e., sizing tolerances that must be accounted for in defining the uncertainty, or error associated with the measured corrosion growth rate. When the same inspection vendor performs the inspections then proven methods exist that enable this growth error to be significantly reduced but these methods include the use of raw inspection data and, specialist software and analysis. Guidelines presently exist to estimate corrosion growth rates using inspection data from different ILI vendors. Although well documented, they are often only applicable to “simple” cases, pipelines containing isolated corrosion features with low feature density counts. As the feature density or the corrosion complexity increases then different reporting specifications, interaction rules, analysis procedures, sizing models, etc can become difficult to account for, ultimately leading to incorrect estimations or larger uncertainties regarding the growth error. This paper will address these issues through the experiences of a North American pipeline operator. Accurately quantifying the reliability of pipeline assets over time requires accurate corrosion growth rates and the case study will demonstrate how the growth error was significantly reduced over existing methodologies. Historical excavation and recoat information was utilized to identify static defects and quantify systemic bias between inspections. To reduce differences in reporting and the analyst interpretation of the recorded magnetic signals, novel analysis techniques were employed to normalize the data sets against each other. The resulting uncertainty of the corrosion growth rates was then further reduced by deriving, and applying a regression model to reduce the effect of the different sizing models and the identified systemic bias. The reduced uncertainty ultimately led to a better understanding of the corrosion activity on the pipeline and facilitated a better integrity management decision process.

scholarly journals Managing NF2-associated vestibular schwannomas in children and young adults: review of an institutional series regarding effects of surgery and bevacizumab on growth rates, tumor volume, and hearing quality

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (10) ◽  
pp. 2471-2480
Author(s):  
Isabel Gugel ◽  
Julian Zipfel ◽  
Philip Hartjen ◽  
Lan Kluwe ◽  
Marcos Tatagiba ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Tumor Volume ◽  
Tumor Resection ◽  
Internal Auditory Canal ◽  
Hearing Preservation ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Bevacizumab Treatment ◽  
Children And Young Adults

Abstract We reviewed our experience in managing of NF2-associated vestibular schwannoma (VS) in children and young adults regarding the effect of surgery and postoperative bevacizumab treatment. A total of 579 volumetric and hearing data sets were analyzed. The effect of surgery on tumor volume and growth rate was investigated in 46 tumors and on hearing function in 39 tumors. Long-term hearing follow-up behavior was compared with 20 non-operated ears in additional 15 patients. Sixteen operated VS were treated with bevacizumab. Mutation analysis of the NF2 gene was performed in 25 patients. Surgery significantly slowed down VS growth rate. Factors associated with a higher growth rate were increasing patient age, tumor volume, and constitutional truncating mutations. Immediately after surgery, functional hearing was maintained in 82% of ears. Deterioration of hearing was associated with initial hearing quality, larger tumor volumes, and larger resection amounts. Average hearing scores were initially better in the group of non-operated VS. Over time, hearing scores in both groups worsened with a similar dynamic. During bevacizumab treatment of residual tumors, four different patterns of growth were observed. Decompression of the internal auditory canal with various degrees of tumor resection decreases the postoperative tumor growth rates. Carefully tailored BAEP-guided surgery does not cause additional hearing deterioration. Secondary bevacizumab treatment showed heterogenous effects both regarding tumor size and hearing preservation. It seems that postoperative tumor residuals, that grow slower, behave differently to bevacizumab than reported for not-operated faster growing VS.

Are Growth Parameters Estimated from Tagging and Age–Length Data Comparable?

1988 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 936-942 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. I. C. C. Francis
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Growth Parameters ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Maximum Length ◽  
Fish Growth ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Von Bertalanffy ◽  
Length Data ◽  
The Mean

The two most common ways of estimating fish growth use age–length data and tagging data. It is shown that growth parameters estimated from these two types of data have different meanings and thus are not directly comparable. In particular, the von Bertalanffy parameter l∞ means asymptotic mean length at age for age–length data, and maximum length for tagging data, when estimated by conventional methods. New parameterizations are given for the von Bertalanffy equation which avoid this ambiguity and better represent the growth information in the two types of data. The comparison between growth estimates from these data sets is shown to be equivalent to comparing the mean growth rate of fish of a given age with that of fish of length equal to the mean length at that age. How much these growth rates may differ in real populations remains unresolved: estimates for two species of fish produced markedly different results, neither of which could be reproduced using growth models. Existing growth models are shown to be inadequate to answer this question.

Full Scale Test Validation of Fatigue Crack Growth Rate of Flaws in ERW Pipe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay Tiku ◽  
Morvarid Ghovanlou ◽  
Aaron Dinovitzer ◽  
Mark Piazza ◽  
T. A. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Fatigue Crack ◽  
Crack Growth Rate ◽  
Fatigue Crack Growth ◽  
Crack Growth ◽  
Fatigue Crack Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Crack Growth Rates

Abstract While the general fracture mechanics principles and methodologies for calculating fatigue lives are well documented and validated, their application in the prediction of pipeline system fatigue lives differed from field experience. The source and magnitude of the conservatism inherent in the calculated fatigue life estimates are an important element when establishing integrity management programs. Of particular interest are the fatigue life estimates used in integrity management programs for electric resistance welded (ERW) pipeline systems that may have pipe seam anomalies oriented along the pipe axis. BMT Canada Ltd (BMT) was contracted by Pipeline Research Council International (PRCI) to develop a pipeline material fatigue crack growth database and conduct full scale cyclic pressure fatigue tests to develop improved crack growth rate parameters. A pipeline material fatigue crack growth database was developed using 185 fatigue crack growth rate tests on 45 pipeline materials ranging in grade from X46 to X70 and in vintage from 1937 to 2014. The database included fatigue crack growth rate tests on 18 pipe body base materials (BM) and 27 ERW weld seam materials at two different, stress ratios (R), of R-ratio = 0.1 and R-ratio = 0.6. The sampled crack growth rates observed in the pipeline steels, tested in the project were 2 to 3 times lower than the crack growth rates recommended in BS 7910. This paper presents the proposed power (Paris) law fatigue crack growth equation parameters, C and m, developed in the study. Two full-scale cyclic pressure tests were carried out to validate the use of recommended crack growth rate parameters. Axial flaws were machined in the pipe body and weld center line (WCL). Fifty-one (51) flaws of different lengths and depths were machined. The crack growth rates were monitored during the cyclic pressure tests by recording crack mouth opening displacement (CMOD). The calibration curves for correlating CMODs with crack depths were developed and validated against finite element (FE) analysis. The fatigue crack growth rates observed in the full-scale tests were then compared with existing BS 7910 and API 579 formulations. The comparison confirmed that the BS 7910 approach results in very conservative estimates of fatigue crack growth rates for axial flaws. The BS 7910 stress intensity factor formulation overestimated the bulging correction for axially oriented flaws. The API 579 fracture mechanics-based fatigue crack growth formulation combined with crack growth rate parameters developed in this program provided improved estimates for fatigue life. The fatigue crack growth rates for line pipe and ERW weld seams developed in this project were shown to be less conservative and better predictors for fatigue crack growth and represent a valuable tool for pipeline integrity management. The use of this information will enable pipeline operators to focus remedial actions on features that have the lowest estimated fatigue lives.

Comparison of Multiple Crack Detection In-Line Inspection Data to Assess Crack Growth

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Slaughter ◽  
Kevin Spencer ◽  
Jane Dawson ◽  
Petra Senf
Keyword(s):  
Crack Growth ◽  
Crack Detection ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Crack Depth ◽  
Field Investigations ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Essential Input ◽  
Maximum Crack ◽  
Inspection Data ◽  
Crack Growth Rates

Ultrasonic inline inspection (ILI) tools have been used in the oil and gas pipeline industry for the last 14 years to detect and measure cracks. The detection capabilities of these tools have been verified through many field investigations. ILI ultrasonic crack detection has good correlation with the crack layout on the pipe and estimating the maximum crack depth for the crack or colony. Recent analytical developments have improved the ability to locate individual cracks within a colony and to define the crack depth profile. As with the management of corroding pipelines, the ability to accurately discriminate active from non-active cracks and to determine the rate of crack growth is an essential input into a number of key integrity management decisions. For example, in order to identify the need for and timing of field investigations and/or repairs and to optimize re-inspection intervals crack growth rates are a key input. With increasing numbers of cracks and crack colonies being found in pipelines there is a real need for reliable crack growth information to use in prioritizing remediation activities and planning re-inspection intervals. So as more and more pipelines containing cracks are now being inspected for a second time (or even third time in some cases), the industry is starting to look for quantitative crack growth information from the comparison of repeat ultrasonic crack detection ILI runs. This paper describes the processes used to analyze repeat ultrasonic crack detection ILI data and crack growth information that can be obtained. Discussions on how technical improvements made to crack sizing accuracy and how field verification information can benefit integrity plans are also included.

Probability-Based Sentencing Criteria for Volumetric In-Line Inspection Data

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Mihell ◽  
J. P. Lemieux ◽  
Samah Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Measurement Error ◽  
Wall Thickness ◽  
Stress Level ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Model Error ◽  
Corrosion Rates ◽  
Operating Stress ◽  
Wall Loss

ASME B31.8S, Figure 7.2.1-1 (referred to as Figure 4 in earlier editions of the Standard) is used by many operators of natural gas transmission pipelines to schedule the remediation of corrosion features found via in-line inspection (ILI). The underlying philosophy of this approach is that wall loss features should be repaired before the calculated failure pressure falls below 110% of the maximum allowable operating pressure (MAOP). ASME B31.8S Figure 7.2.1-1 provides a basis for establishing maximum response times as a function of pipeline operating stress level, based in part on assumed corrosion growth rates. The corrosion rates assumed in the derivation of ASME B31.8S Figure 7.2.1-1 depend on the wall thickness of the pipe and the operating stress level as a percent of SMYS. As documented in PHMSA’s March 17, 2016 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, the 1.1xMAOP repair criterion that forms the basis of Figure 7.2.2-1 has a demonstrated successful history of use in response management for wall loss ILI data. Despite this successful record, some potential exists for the underlying corrosion growth rate assumptions that are incorporated within that criterion to be non-conservative. Under some circumstances, the underlying corrosion growth rate assumption that is incorporated in Figure 7.2.1-1 can be significantly less than that which is provided in the guidance provided in NACE SP0502 (referenced in Appendix B of ASME B31.8S). Therefore, operators should ideally take measures to verify that the growth rate assumptions incorporated within Figure 7.2.1-1 are appropriate for their circumstances before adopting the scheduled response criteria from that Figure. On the other hand, for the majority of circumstances, it could be demonstrated that the Figure 7.2.1-1 criteria may represent overly-conservative response times, particularly where feature-specific information related to corrosion rates are available, and/or can be inferred from ILI data. A desirable solution would be to employ a response time threshold that utilizes the 1.1xMAOP repair criterion that has been demonstrated to be successful through industry’s widespread adoption of the Figure 7.2.2-1 criteria, along with some basis for incorporating feature-specific corrosion growth rates (from ILI data), and additionally, some basis for accounting for tool measurement error. Techniques for estimating the relative probability of failure (Pf) exist that employ ILI data and account for tool measurement error, model error, and tolerances in pipe dimensions and material properties. The problem to date is that probability targets have not been available for use in conjunction with a Pf analysis. Building on previous work done by Kiefner and Kolovich, this paper derives an approach for expressing Pf targets in terms of the 1.1xMAOP repair criterion adopted by ASME B31.8S, Figure 7.2.1-1. The Pf targets are derived using stochastic modeling, and incorporate probability density functions on tool error for feature depth and length, wall thickness, yield strength, and model error. Using a wide range of pipeline material and design parameters, a relationship for establishing lower-bound Pf targets is developed for broad application.

Delivering Sustainable Water Systems Using Kalman Filter and Statistical Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-52
Author(s):  
Dedy Loebis
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filtering ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Water Systems ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Pressure Data ◽  
Burst Event ◽  
Sample Data ◽  
Other Information ◽  
Supply Systems ◽  
Frequency Features

This paper presents the results of work undertaken to develop and test contrasting data analysis approaches for the detection of bursts/leaks and other anomalies within wate r supply systems at district meter area (DMA)level. This was conducted for Yorkshire Water (YW) sample data sets from the Harrogate and Dales (H&D), Yorkshire, United Kingdom water supply network as part of Project NEPTUNE EP/E003192/1 ). A data analysissystem based on Kalman filtering and statistical approach has been developed. The system has been applied to the analysis of flow and pressure data. The system was proved for one dataset case and have shown the ability to detect anomalies in flow and pres sure patterns, by correlating with other information. It will be shown that the Kalman/statistical approach is a promising approach at detecting subtle changes and higher frequency features, it has the potential to identify precursor features and smaller l eaks and hence could be useful for monitoring the development of leaks, prior to a large volume burst event.

Comparison of copper sulphate pentahydrate growth rates determined by different methods

1990 ◽  
Vol 55 (7) ◽  
pp. 1691-1707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miloslav Karel ◽  
Jiří Hostomský ◽  
Jaroslav Nývlt ◽  
Axel König
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Crystal Growth ◽  
Fluidized Bed ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Copper Sulphate ◽  
Crystal Growth Rate ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Rotating Disc ◽  
Shape Factors ◽  
Data Treatment

Crystal growth rates of copper sulphate pentahydrate (CuSO4.5 H2O) determined by different authors and methods are compared. The methods included in this comparison are: (i) Measurement on a fixed crystal suspended in a streaming solution, (ii) measurement on a rotating disc, (iii) measurement in a fluidized bed, (iv) measurement in an agitated suspension. The comparison involves critical estimation of the supersaturation used in measurements, of shape factors used for data treatment and a correction for the effect of temperature. Conclusions are drawn for the choice of values to be specified when data of crystal growth rate measurements are published.

Measurement of growth rates for single crystals and pressed tablets of CuSO4.5 H2O on a rotating disc

1989 ◽  
Vol 54 (11) ◽  
pp. 2951-2961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miloslav Karel ◽  
Jaroslav Nývlt
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Single Crystal ◽  
Single Crystals ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Diffusion Coefficients ◽  
Preferred Orientation ◽  
Rotating Disc ◽  
Dissolution Rates ◽  
Rates Of Growth ◽  
Good Agreement

Measured growth and dissolution rates of single crystals and tablets were used to calculate the overall linear rates of growth and dissolution of CuSO4.5 H2O crystals. The growth rate for the tablet is by 20% higher than that calculated for the single crystal. It has been concluded that this difference is due to a preferred orientation of crystal faces on the tablet surface. Calculated diffusion coefficients and thicknesses of the diffusion and hydrodynamic layers in the vicinity of the growing or dissolving crystal are in good agreement with published values.

scholarly journals Accuracy of State-Level Surveillance during Emerging Outbreaks of Respiratory Viruses: A Model-Based Assessment

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110222
Author(s):  
Yuwen Gu ◽  
Elise DeDoncker ◽  
Richard VanEnk ◽  
Rajib Paul ◽  
Susan Peters ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Disease Progression ◽  
Health Care Providers ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
State Level ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Care Providers ◽  
State Surveillance ◽  
First Come First Serve

It is long perceived that the more data collection, the more knowledge emerges about the real disease progression. During emergencies like the H1N1 and the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemics, public health surveillance requested increased testing to address the exacerbated demand. However, it is currently unknown how accurately surveillance portrays disease progression through incidence and confirmed case trends. State surveillance, unlike commercial testing, can process specimens based on the upcoming demand (e.g., with testing restrictions). Hence, proper assessment of accuracy may lead to improvements for a robust infrastructure. Using the H1N1 pandemic experience, we developed a simulation that models the true unobserved influenza incidence trend in the State of Michigan, as well as trends observed at different data collection points of the surveillance system. We calculated the growth rate, or speed at which each trend increases during the pandemic growth phase, and we performed statistical experiments to assess the biases (or differences) between growth rates of unobserved and observed trends. We highlight the following results: 1) emergency-driven high-risk perception increases reporting, which leads to reduction of biases in the growth rates; 2) the best predicted growth rates are those estimated from the trend of specimens submitted to the surveillance point that receives reports from a variety of health care providers; and 3) under several criteria to queue specimens for viral subtyping with limited capacity, the best-performing criterion was to queue first-come, first-serve restricted to specimens with higher hospitalization risk. Under this criterion, the lab released capacity to subtype specimens for each day in the trend, which reduced the growth rate bias the most compared to other queuing criteria. Future research should investigate additional restrictions to the queue.

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