A Comparison of Inherent Risk Levels in ASME B31.8 and UK Gas Pipeline Design Codes

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Goodfellow ◽  
Jane Haswell
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Radiation Effects ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Design Codes ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Pipeline Design ◽  
The Impact

The approach to gas pipeline risk and integrity management in the US, involving the development of integrity management plans for High Consequence Areas (HCA), is usually qualitative, as outlined in ASME B31.8S. Depending on the engineering judgement of the assessment team this can lead to a wide variety of results making risk comparison between pipelines difficult. Qualitative risk ranking methods are popular in Europe, but quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is also used for setting acceptable risk levels and as an input to risk and integrity management planning. It is possible to use quantitative risk assessment methods to compare the levels of risk inherent in different pipeline design codes. This paper discusses the use of pipeline quantitative risk assessment methods to analyse pipelines designed to ASME B31.8 and UK IGE/TD/1 (equivalent to PD 8010, published by BSI, for the design of gas pipelines) codes. The QRA utilises predictive models for consequence assessment, e.g. pipeline blowdown and thermal radiation effects, and failure frequency, in determining the risk levels due to an operational pipeline. The results of the analysis illustrate how the risk levels inherent in the two codes compare for different class locations & minimum housing separation distances. The impact of code requirements on design factor, depth of burial, population density and the impact of third party activity on overall risk levels are also discussed.

The Effects of Corrosion Measurement Error on a Safety Risk Assessment: A TransGas Case Study

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daryl Bandstra ◽  
Corey Gorrill
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Corrosion Failure ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Transmission Pipeline ◽  
Operating Risk ◽  
The Impact

The risk of pipeline failure is a measure of the state of knowledge of the pipeline; improved knowledge of the pipeline reduces the uncertainty and therefore can reduce the associated risk. Specifically for corrosion defects, the knowledge of the number and size of defects is often obtained using in-line inspection tools which have uncertainty associated with their measurement capabilities. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is a methodology that objectively assesses a range of pipeline integrity threats including the threat of corrosion failure. QRA can incorporate the impact of significant sources of analysis uncertainty, such as feature sizing in risk estimates. This paper discusses an application of QRA used to evaluate the operating risk of high pressure transmission pipeline segments in the TransGas system. Specific examples are described in which the inspection tool sizing uncertainty was shown to exert a significant influence on the calculated risk levels. In carrying out the analysis, the failure probability models selected were dependent on the nature of the integrity threat and the type of information available for each pipeline. For the assessment of corrosion integrity, the results of in-line inspections were used directly in determining failure likelihood. For the other threats including equipment impact, geotechnical hazards, manufacturing cracks and stress corrosion cracking, the probability of failure was estimated from historical failure rates with adjustments to reflect line-specific conditions. Failure consequences were estimated using models that quantify the safety implications of loss of containment events. Using these models, safety risk measures were calculated along the length of each pipeline. The results of the analysis show the benefit of the use of inspection technologies with improved sizing accuracy, in terms of reduction in expected operating risk.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

Design of a risk assessment methodology for the introduction of invasive species from ship ballast waters

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 474-490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrahmane Bouda ◽  
Nour El Islam Bachari ◽  
Lylia Bahmed ◽  
Ryad Boubenia
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Invasive Species ◽  
Ballast Water ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Convention ◽  
Environmental Similarity ◽  
Process Factors ◽  
Shipping Traffic ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – Ballast water of merchant ship is a source of introduction of invasive species around the globe. The purpose of this paper is to present a quantitative risk assessment applied to a model port, the Port of Arzew in Algeria, and based on an analysis of this port’s shipping traffic. Design/methodology/approach – The risk assessment for introduction of invasive species is interpreted in the form of a probabilistic process, with a combination of two probabilities. The first probability is related to the ability of a species to arrive to the destination (recipient port), depending on the quantity of water ballast discharged and the duration of voyage. The second one is based on the species ability to survive in their new environment, which depends on the environmental similarity between donor port and Arzew port. Findings – This assessment’s outcome consists on a classification of scenarios regarding their acceptability. Consequently, it helped to classify donor ports according to a risk scale, from low risk to high-risk donor ports. Research limitations/implications – The phenomenon of invasion of aquatic species is a complex process. Factors such as adaptation and tolerance of species, the attendance or absence of predators, were not taken into account in this study. Practical implications – This study could be used by the maritime administration as a decision-making tool regarding the issue of exemptions under the IMO International Convention on the Management of Ballast Water and Sediments 2004. Originality/value – This is one of the first known studies in Algeria and dealing with ballast water management. The results of this assessment provide useful information to policy makers, in order to develop a national strategy to reduce the impact of shipping pollution on the marine environment.

Applying the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to Improve Safety Management of Oil and Gas Pipeline Stations in China

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxing Feng ◽  
Xiaoqiang Xiang ◽  
Guangming Jia ◽  
Lianshuang Dai ◽  
Yulei Gu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Oil Pipeline

The oil and gas pipeline companies in China are facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges because of China’s increasing demand for oil and gas energy that is attributed to rapid economic and social development. Limitation of land resource and the fast urbanization lead to a determinate result that many pipelines have to go through or be adjacent to highly populated areas such as cities or towns. The increasing Chinese government regulation, and public concerns about industrial safety and environmental protection push the pipeline companies to enhance the safety, health and environmental protection management. In recent years, PetroChina Pipeline Company (PPC) pays a lot of attention and effort to improve employees and public safety around the pipeline facilities. A comprehensive, integrated HSE management system is continuously improved and effectively implemented in PPC. PPC conducts hazard identification, risk assessment, risk control and mitigation, risk monitoring. For the oil and gas stations in highly populated area or with numerous employees, PPC carries out quantitative risk assessment (QRA) to evaluate and manage the population risk. To make the assessment, “Guidelines for quantitative risk assessments” (purple book) published by Committee for the Prevention of Disasters of Netherlands is used along with a software package. The basic principles, process, and methods of QRA technology are introduced in this article. The process is to identify the station hazards, determinate the failure scenarios of the facilities, estimate the possibilities of leakage failures, calculate the consequences of failures and damages to population, demonstrate the individual risk and social risk, and evaluate whether the risk is acceptable. The process may involve the mathematical modeling of fluid and gas spill, dispersion, fire and explosion. One QRA case in an oil pipeline station is described in this article to illustrate the application process and discuss several key issues in the assessment. Using QRA technique, about 20 stations have been evaluated in PPC. On the basis of the results, managers have taken prevention and mitigation plans to control the risk. QRAs in the pipeline station can provide a quantitative basis and valuable reference for the company’s decision-making and land use planning. Also, QRA can play a role to make a better relationship between the pipeline companies and the local regulator and public. Finally, this article delivers limitations of QRA in Chinese pipeline stations and discusses issues of the solutions.

Quantitative Risk Assessment Methods to Evaluate the Safety of Menstrual Protection Products

Epidemiology ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
pp. S141
Author(s):  
Prashant Rai ◽  
Daniel Marsman ◽  
Denise Gutshall ◽  
Christel Lux ◽  
Mekhine Baccam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment

FDA-iRISK—A Comparative Risk Assessment System for Evaluating and Ranking Food-Hazard Pairs: Case Studies on Microbial Hazards

2013 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
YUHUAN CHEN ◽  
SHERRI B. DENNIS ◽  
EMMA HARTNETT ◽  
GREG PAOLI ◽  
RÉGIS POUILLOT ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Process Models ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
The Public ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Impact

Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

Propagation and Delegation of Rights in Access Controls and Risk Assessment Techniques

2007 ◽  
pp. 328-337
Author(s):  
Saravanan Muthaiyah
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Access Control ◽  
Web Security ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Access Controls ◽  
Assessment Techniques ◽  
Access Rights

Access control methods have been improvised over time, but one area that remains quite grey is the concept of assessing risk levels before any type of access rights are granted. This is relatively a new paradigm in the research of semantic Web security, and new methodologies for this effort are being studied. In this chapter, we will see how qualitative risk assessment (Nissanke & Khayat, 2004) and quantitative risk assessment are carried out. The purpose is to have different methods of assessment for better grant of access control rights and permissions. New examples based on the model described (Nissanke & Khayat, 2004) are used to illustrate the concept. A new quantities technique is also added to complement the qualitative techniques.

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