A Pipeline LDS Trial: Comparing Compensated Volume Balance Against SPRT Statistical Based LDS in a Brazilian Pipeline

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renan Martins Baptista ◽  
Andre´ Luiz Guedes Maricato ◽  
Paulo Anchieta Masiero ◽  
Jose´ Lima da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Field Trials ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Sensitivity Curve ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Testing Period ◽  
Number Of False Alarms ◽  
Volume Balance ◽  
Leak Location

This paper describes field trials for two different technologies (built in two commercial products) for leak detection, location and quantification systems (LDS). Modified Compensated Volumetric Balance was tested against SPRT Statistical Analysis, and the obtained results were analyzed/commented. The tests were carried out in a 43 km long 20 in. pipeline (PREPSP), carrying different batches of crude oils, located in the state of Bahia, Brazil. Actual leaks under shut in, steady state, pump transient startup and shutdown operational conditions were introduced, and the performance of both technologies analysed. For each of those conditions and technologies, a sensitivity curve was plotted, leak location and its quantification was tabled, compared and commented. Finally, reliability data for both technologies (essentially, number of false alarms and non-expected misbehavior) were gathered for a two weeks testing period.

A Note About the Sensitivity Curve of Compensated Volume Balance Leak Detection Systems

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felipe Bastos de Freitas Rachid ◽  
Jose´ Henrique Carneiro de Araujo ◽  
Renan Martins Baptista
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Lower Bounds ◽  
Leak Detection ◽  
Theoretical Development ◽  
Rate Measurement ◽  
Sensitivity Curve ◽  
Flow Rate Measurement ◽  
Detection Systems ◽  
Volume Balance ◽  
System Uncertainties

This work presents a simple theoretical development which aims to derive the sensitivity curve of compensated volume balance leak detection systems. The analysis carried out is not limited to steady state and also automatically provides the bounds with which the sensitivity curve is predicted, as a function of the system uncertainties. It is demonstrated that the performance of leak detection systems of this nature depends upon the operation of the pipeline at the time instants of the leak onset and of leak detection. As a result, it is also shown that there are an upper and a lower bounds of the minimum response time and that the minimum detectable leak is independent of the pipeline operational regime, being equal to the overall flow rate measurement uncertainty.

Triggers for the Transient State of a Pipeline in Material Balance Systems Used in Real-Time Transient Hydraulic Modeling

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noorallah Rostamy ◽  
Norense Okungbowa ◽  
John D. Yurchevich
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Material Balance ◽  
Transient State ◽  
Leak Detection ◽  
Hydraulic Modeling ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Threshold Method ◽  
Flow Meter ◽  
Transient Event ◽  
Number Of False Alarms

Computational Pipeline Monitoring (CPM) leak detection in liquid pipelines can be unreliable or have a high number of false alarms during transient hydraulic events. This paper presents techniques for avoiding these false alarms and for improving leak detectability during steady state operations. Application of this approach has improved both the sensitivity and reliability of CPM-based leak detection systems. When a pipeline is in steady-state operation, the leak detection thresholds can be reduced. When a transient is detected, the thresholds are increased to a higher value. Because of known errors in data measurement and the time at which the measurement was made, large uncertainties in the line-pack prediction can exist during these transient events. In this paper, CPM reliability is improved using dual thresholds; tight threshold for near steady state and relaxed threshold for transient operation. In the presented study, different transient triggers in a pipeline have been implemented to the dual threshold method in order to show the effect of transient thresholds on the reliability of the CPM models or the reduction in the number of false alarms. When the CPM model determines that a transient event is occurring, the imbalance threshold is increased to a pre-set higher value. The transient threshold will remain high until the transient event diminishes, then the thresholds will return to their original steady-state value after a pre-set wait period. This applies to each leak detection window and to each flow meter-to-flow meter section in the CPM model. Detailed information about the dual thresholds approach and the transient triggers is provided in the full paper. Results from the implementation of this method and the quantitative improvement of the CPM reliability and sensitivity will also be presented.

Algorithms for detecting broadband signals with a constant level of false alarms

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
I.F. Lozovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Detection Threshold ◽  
Signal Amplitude ◽  
Rayleigh Distribution ◽  
Training Sample ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Constant Level ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Interference Power ◽  
Number Of False Alarms ◽  
Distribution Type

The use of broadband souding signals in radars, which has become real in recent years, leads to a significant reduction in the size of resolution elements in range and, accordingly, in the size of the window in which the training sample is formed, which is used to adapt the detection threshold in signal detection algorithms with a constant level of false alarms. In existing radars, such a window would lead to huge losses. The purpose of the work was to study the most rational options for constructing detectors with a constant level of false alarms in radars with broadband sounding signals. The problem was solved for the Rayleigh distribution of the envelope of the noise and a number of non-Rayleigh laws — Weibull and the lognormal, the appearance of which is associated with a decrease in the number of reflecting elements in the resolution volume. For Rayleigh interference, an algorithm is proposed with a multi-channel in range incoherent signal amplitude storage and normalization to the larger of the two estimates of the interference power in the range segments. The detection threshold in it adapts not only to the interference power, but also to the magnitude of the «power jump» in range, which allows reducing the number of false alarms during sudden changes in the interference power – the increase in the probability of false alarms did not exceed one order of magnitude. In this algorithm, there is a certain increase in losses associated with incoherent accumulation of signals reflected from target elements, and losses can be reduced by certain increasing the size of the distance segments that make up the window. Algorithms for detecting broadband signals against interference with non-Rayleigh laws of distribution of the envelope – Weibull and lognormal, based on the addition of the algorithm for detecting signals by non-linear transformation of sample counts into counts with a Rayleigh distribution, are studied. The structure of the detection algorithm remains unchanged in practice. The options for detectors of narrowband and broadband signals are considered. It was found that, in contrast to algorithms designed for the Rayleigh distribution, these algorithms provide a stable level of false alarms regardless of the values of the parameters of non-Rayleigh interference. To reduce losses due to interference with the distribution of amplitudes according to the Rayleigh law, detectors consisting of two channels are used, in which one of the channels is tuned for interference with the Rayleigh distribution, and the other for lognormal or Weibull interference. Channels are switched according to special distribution type recognition algorithms. In such detectors, however, there is a certain increase in the probability of false alarms in a rather narrow range of non-Rayleigh interference parameters, where their distribution approaches the Rayleigh distribution. It is shown that when using broadband signals, there is a noticeable decrease in detection losses in non-Rayleigh noise due to lower detection thresholds for in range signal amplitudes incoherent storage.

An Automated Conflict-alert Function for an Air Traffic Control System

1980 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 475-481
Author(s):  
P. Bertolazzi ◽  
M. Lucertini
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Control System ◽  
Traffic Control ◽  
Air Traffic Control ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Major Purpose ◽  
Number Of False Alarms ◽  
Traffic Control System

The major purpose of an air traffic control system is to ensure the separation of two or more aircraft flying in the same airspace, with an efficiency that can be expressed in terms of capacity and cost. As air traffic grows in numbers it becomes necessary to reduce the workload of the controllers by relieving them of many monitoring tasks, and eventually some decision-making tasks, through computerized automation. In this context many developments tend to build up an efficient conflict-alert subsystem.The problem of conflict-alert in the air needs strategic tools, to make collision unlikely or even impossible, and tactical tools to detect impending collisions. The latter detect potentially hazardous aircraft encounters and alert the controller in time to warn the pilots (if necessary) and should obviously provide this capability with a minimal number of false alarms and no increase in workload.

scholarly journals Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast

2011 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 61-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.-J. Bao ◽  
L.-N. Zhao ◽  
Y. He ◽  
Z.-J. Li ◽  
F. Wetterhall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Flood Forecast ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Xinanjiang Model ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Number Of False Alarms ◽  
Promising Tool

Abstract. The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an early warning of flood events several days ahead.

scholarly journals Determination of level and time thresholds for detectors with normalized indicator process

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
С.Б. Егоров ◽  
Р.И. Горбачев
Keyword(s):  
False Alarm ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
False Alarm Probability ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Number Of False Alarms ◽  
Time Threshold ◽  
Selection Threshold

«Выбросовая» вероятностная модель работы обнаружителя в режиме ожидания сигнала, предложенная авторами в [1], использована для оценки влияния селекции выбросов по длительности на вероятность ложной тревоги. Флюктуационные выбросы помехового индикаторного процесса, превысившие пороги селекции по уровню и длительности, трактуются как редкие события на интервале ожидания сигнала, подчиняющиеся вероятностному закону Пуассона. При условии, что средний период следования ложных выбросов превышает интервал корреляции индикаторного процесса, получено соотношение между средним числом выбросов любой длительности и средним числом выбросов, превысивших пороговую длительность. На основании известных числовых и вероятностных характеристик выбросов нормального стационарного случайного процесса получен уравнения, связывающие относительные пороги селекции по уровню и длительности с вероятностью ложной тревоги на интервале ожидания сигнала. Предложена методика определения порога селекции по длительности для снижения порога селекции по уровню до заданной величины. «Emissional» probability model of the detector in stand-by mode proposed by the authors in [1], is intended for estimation of false alarm rate dependence from the value of time-selection threshold. Fluctuation emissions of the noise indicator process are interpreted as rare events correspond to Poisson distribution. Assuming that average rate of false alarms exceeds the correlation interval of indicator process, obtained equation between average number of false alarms of any duration and average number of false alarms exceed the time threshold. Based on known numerical and statistical characteristics of emissions of normal stationary random process obtained equations, relating time and level thresholds with false alarm probability on stand-by mode time interval. Also suggested a method of determining time threshold intended to reduce level threshold.

Experimental, Numerical, and Statistical Investigation of Two Phase Flow in a Cylindrical Perforation Tunnel

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekhwaiter Abobaker ◽  
Abadelhalim Elsanoose ◽  
Mohammad Azizur Rahman ◽  
Faisal Khan ◽  
Amer Aborig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Flow Rate ◽  
Gas Flow ◽  
Two Phase Flow ◽  
Phase Flow ◽  
Gas Flow Rate ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
Flow Through

Abstract Perforation is the final stage in well completion that helps to connect reservoir formations to wellbores during hydrocarbon production. The drilling perforation technique maximizes the reservoir productivity index by minimizing damage. This can be best accomplished by attaining a better understanding of fluid flows that occur in the near-wellbore region during oil and gas operations. The present work aims to enhance oil recovery by modelling a two-phase flow through the near-wellbore region, thereby expanding industry knowledge about well performance. An experimental procedure was conducted to investigate the behavior of two-phase flow through a cylindrical perforation tunnel. Statistical analysis was coupled with numerical simulation to expand the investigation of fluid flow in the near-wellbore region that cannot be obtained experimentally. The statistical analysis investigated the effect of several parameters, including the liquid and gas flow rate, liquid viscosity, permeability, and porosity, on the injection build-up pressure and the time needed to reach a steady-state flow condition. Design-Expert® Design of Experiments (DoE) software was used to determine the numerical simulation runs using the ANOVA analysis with a Box-Behnken Design (BBD) model and ANSYS-FLUENT was used to analyses the numerical simulation of the porous media tunnel by applying the volume of fluid method (VOF). The experimental data were validated to the numerical results, and the comparison of results was in good agreement. The numerical and statistical analysis demonstrated each investigated parameter’s effect. The permeability, flow rate, and viscosity of the liquid significantly affect the injection pressure build-up profile, and porosity and gas flow rate substantially affect the time required to attain steady-state conditions. In addition, two correlations obtained from the statistical analysis can be used to predict the injection build-up pressure and the required time to reach steady state for different scenarios. This work will contribute to the clarification and understanding of the behavior of multiphase flow in the near-wellbore region.

Method for oil balance control under quasi-stationary modes of operation of an oil pipeline section with free flow

2021 ◽  
pp. 40-45
Author(s):  
Рустам Зайтунович Сунагатуллин ◽  
Антон Михайлович Чионов ◽  
Семен Васильевич Петренко
Keyword(s):  
Balance Control ◽  
Operation Mode ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Free Flow ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
Detection Systems ◽  
Pipeline Section ◽  
Number Of False Alarms ◽  
Oil Flow

Автоматизированные системы управления используются в нефтепроводном транспорте с целью автоматизации технологических процессов транспортировки нефти и нефтепродуктов, при этом основной задачей является обеспечение надежности и безопасности перекачки, что невозможно без контроля целостности трубопровода. В связи с этим актуальной остается тема обнаружения утечек, требуют продолжения исследования в области повышения надежности автоматизированных систем обнаружения утечек (СОУ). При эксплуатации СОУ особую важность представляет описание процессов заполнения и опорожнения участков трубопровода с безнапорным течением. Скорость установления стационарного режима работы таких участков и участков с полным сечением существенно отличается. Слабые возмущения давления могут приводить к значительному дебалансу расхода нефти и, как следствие, вызывать ложные срабатывания СОУ. Авторами представлен алгоритм вычисления скорости изменения запаса нефти на участке трубопровода при медленном изменении размера самотечной полости, на основании которого предложен способ корректировки уравнения баланса вещества. Показано использование разработанного алгоритма для повышения чувствительности СОУ и уменьшения количества ложных срабатываний. During the operation of leak detection systems (LDS), it is of great importance to describe the processes of filling and emptying pipeline free flow sections. The speed of establishing a stationary operation mode of such sections and full sections is significantly different. Weak pressure perturbations can lead to significant imbalance in the oil flow rate and, as a consequence, cause false LDS positives. The authors present an algorithm for calculating rate of change in oil reserve in the pipeline section with a slow change in the size of gravity cavity, on the basis of which a method for adjusting the substance balance equation is proposed. The use of a developed algorithm is shown to increase the sensitivity of LDS and reduce the number of false alarms.

Optimal Detection and Estimation of Marine Oil Spills Through Coherent Pluralism

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-111
Author(s):  
Kufre Bassey ◽  
Polycarp Chigbu
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Environmental Science ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Optical Remote Sensing ◽  
Marine Oil ◽  
Detection And Estimation ◽  
Number Of False Alarms ◽  
Marine Oil Spills ◽  
Remote Sensing Techniques

An important area of environmental science involves the combination of information from diverse sources relating to a similar endpoint. Majority of optical remote sensing techniques used for marine oil spills detection have been reported lately of having high number of false alarms (oil slick look-a-likes) phenomena which give rise to signals which appear to be oil but are not. Suggestions for radar image as an operational tool has also been made. However, due to the inherent risk in these tools, this paper presents the possible research directions of combining statistical techniques with remote sensing in marine oil spill detection and estimation.

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