Energy Mix Forecasting in Abu Dhabi Using Mixed Integer Linear Program

Sustainable energy transition requires a critical prediction for the long-term evolvement of energy systems around the world. It is affected by several factors: the changes in the oil economy, the climate change, and the development of renewable energy supply technologies. The aim of this research is to compare and analyze Abu Dhabi’s generation sector in its transition from complete conventional gas to a mix of conventional and Photovoltaic (PV) energy systems. Employing a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP) and PLEXOS software, two capacity expansion scenarios of Abu Dhabi’s generation sector for five years are optimized, analyzed, and compared using a real data from the generation and demand sides. This research means to highlight, to the UAE government, the effect of introducing more renewable energy and to evaluate the performance of the generation side in meeting the forecasted demand. Furthermore, this work opens the doors wide for further development and optimization in the GCC area.