Failure Prognosis Based on Adaptive State Space Models

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangxing Bai ◽  
Amirmahyar Abdolsamadi ◽  
Pingfeng Wang
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
State Space Models ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Failure Prognosis ◽  
Model Recognition ◽  
Life Predictions

This paper presents a generic data-driven failure prognosis method based on adaptive state space models for engineering systems, which integrates adaptive model recognition with a dynamic system model for remaining useful life prediction. The developed approach employs a statistical learning framework for adaptively learning of time-series degradation performance, and then a Bayesian technique for self-updating of data-driven models to adapt the operational or environmental changes. With the developed approach, the prognosis technique can eliminate the dependence to system specific models and be adaptive to system performance changes due to degradation or variation of system operational conditions, thereby yielding accurate remaining useful life predictions. The developed methodology is demonstrated by an engineering case study.

scholarly journals Validation of Data-Driven Labeling Approaches Using a Novel Deep Network Structure for Remaining Useful Life Predictions

IEEE Access ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 71563-71575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre Listou Ellefsen ◽  
Sergey Ushakov ◽  
Vilmar Aesoy ◽  
Houxiang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Network Structure ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Deep Network ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Life Predictions

scholarly journals A locally adaptive ensemble approach for data-driven prognostics of heterogeneous fleets

2017 ◽  
Vol 231 (4) ◽  
pp. 350-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sameer Al-Dahidi ◽  
Francesco Di Maio ◽  
Piero Baraldi ◽  
Enrico Zio
Keyword(s):  
Markov Model ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Ensemble Approach ◽  
Fuzzy Similarity ◽  
Finite State ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Life Predictions

In this work, we consider the problem of predicting the remaining useful life of a piece of equipment, based on data collected from a heterogeneous fleet working under different operating conditions. When the equipment experiences variable operating conditions, individual data-driven prognostic models are not able to accurately predict the remaining useful life during the entire equipment life. The objective of this work is to develop an ensemble approach of different prognostic models for aggregating their remaining useful life predictions in an adaptive way, for good performance throughout the degradation progression. Two data-driven prognostic models are considered, a homogeneous discrete-time finite-state semi-Markov model and a fuzzy similarity–based model. The ensemble approach is based on a locally weighted strategy that aggregates the outcomes of the two prognostic models of the ensemble by assigning to each model a weight and a bias related to its local performance, that is, the accuracy in predicting the remaining useful life of patterns of a validation set similar to the one under study. The proposed approach is applied to a case study regarding a heterogeneous fleet of aluminum electrolytic capacitors used in electric vehicle powertrains. The results have shown that the proposed ensemble approach is able to provide more accurate remaining useful life predictions throughout the entire life of the equipment compared to an alternative ensemble approach and to each individual homogeneous discrete-time finite-state semi-Markov model and fuzzy similarity–based models.

scholarly journals Remaining Useful Life Prediction of MOSFETs via the Takagi–Sugeno Framework

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2135
Author(s):  
Marcin Witczak ◽  
Marcin Mrugalski ◽  
Bogdan Lipiec
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Field Effect Transistors ◽  
Failure Process ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Data Repository ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Takagi Sugeno

The paper presents a new method of predicting the remaining useful life of technical devices. The proposed soft computing approach bridges the gap between analytical and data-driven health prognostic approaches. Whilst the former ones are based on the classical exponential shape of degradation, the latter ones learn the degradation behavior from the observed historical data. As a result of the proposed fusion, a practical method for calculating components’ remaining useful life is proposed. Contrarily to the approaches presented in the literature, the proposed ensemble of analytical and data-driven approaches forms the uncertainty interval containing an expected remaining useful life. In particular, a Takagi–Sugeno multiple models-based framework is used as a data-driven approach while an exponential curve fitting on-line approach serves as an analytical one. Unlike conventional data-driven methods, the proposed approach is designed on the basis of the historical data that apart from learning is also applied to support the diagnostic decisions. Finally, the entire scheme is used to predict power Metal Oxide Field Effect Transistors’ (MOSFETs) health status. The status of the currently operating MOSFET is determined taking into consideration the knowledge obtained from the preceding MOSFETs, which went through the run-to-failure process. Finally, the proposed approach is validated with the application of real data obtained from the NASA Ames Prognostics Data Repository.

A Clustering-Based Framework for Performance Degradation Prediction of Slewing Bearing Using Multiple Physical Signals

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Ding ◽  
Hua Wang ◽  
Yongfen Dai
Keyword(s):  
Degradation Process ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Rolling Bearings ◽  
Heavy Load ◽  
Joint Application ◽  
Learning Modes ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Slewing Bearings

Diagnosing the failure or predicting the performance state of low-speed and heavy-load slewing bearings is a practical and effective method to reduce unexpected stoppage or optimize the maintenances. Many literatures focus on the performance prediction of small rolling bearings, while studies on slewing bearings' health evaluation are very rare. Among these rare studies, supervised or unsupervised data-driven models are often used alone, few researchers devote to remaining useful life (RUL) prediction using the joint application of two learning modes which could fully take diversity and complexity of slewing bearings' degradation and damage into consideration. Therefore, this paper proposes a clustering-based framework with aids of supervised models and multiple physical signals. Correlation analysis and principle component analysis (PCA)-based multiple sensitive features in time-domain are used to establish the performance recession indicators (PRIs) of torque, temperature, and vibration. Subsequently, these three indicators are divided into several parts representing different degradation periods via optimized self-organizing map (OSOM). Finally, corresponding data-driven life models of these degradation periods are generated. Experimental results indicate that multiple physical signals can effectively describe the degradation process. The proposed clustering-based framework is provided with a more accurate prediction of slewing bearings' RUL and well reflects the performance recession periods.

Multi-Sensor Data-Driven Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Semi-Observable Systems

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Naipeng Li ◽  
Yaguo Lei ◽  
Nagi Gebraeel ◽  
Zhijian Wang ◽  
Xiao Cai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Prediction ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Useful Life
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