Fuel Use and CO2 Emissions Under Uncertainty From Light-Duty Vehicles in the U.S. to 2050

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parisa Bastani ◽  
John B. Heywood ◽  
Chris Hope
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Alternative Fuels ◽  
Fuel Use ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Light Duty ◽  
Co2 Equivalent ◽  
The Future ◽  
Light Duty Vehicles ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

On-road transportation contributes 22% of the total CO2 emissions and more than 44% of oil consumption in the U.S. Technological advancements and use of alternative fuels are often suggested as ways to reduce these emissions. However, many parameters and relationships that determine the future characteristics of the light-duty vehicle fleet and how they change over time are inherently uncertain. Policy makers need to make decisions today given these uncertainties, to shape the future of light-duty vehicles. Decision makers thus need to know the impact of uncertainties on the outcome of their decisions and the associated risks. This paper explores a carefully constructed detailed pathway that results in a significant reduction in fuel use and GHG emissions in 2050. Inputs are assigned realistic uncertainty bounds, and the impact of uncertainty on this pathway is analyzed. A novel probabilistic fleet model is used here to quantify the uncertainties within advanced vehicle technology development, and life-cycle emissions of alternative fuels and renewable sources. Based on the results from this study, the expected fuel use is about 500 and 350 billion litres gasoline equivalent, with a standard deviation of about 40 and 80 billion litres in years 2030 and 2050 respectively. The expected CO2 emissions are about 1,360 and 840 Mt CO2 equivalent with a spread of about 130 and 260 Mt CO2 equivalent in 2030 and 2050 respectively. Major contributing factors in determining the future fuel consumption and emissions are also identified and include vehicle scrappage rate, annual growth of vehicle kilometres travelled in the near term, total vehicle sales, fuel consumption of naturally-aspirated engines, and percentage of gasoline displaced by cellulosic ethanol. This type of analysis allows policy makers to better understand the impact of their decisions and proposed policies given the technological and market uncertainties that we face today.

Fuel Use and CO2 Emissions Under Uncertainty From Light-Duty Vehicles in the U.S. to 2050

2012 ◽  
Vol 134 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Parisa Bastani ◽  
John B. Heywood ◽  
Chris Hope
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Alternative Fuels ◽  
Fuel Use ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Light Duty ◽  
Co2 Equivalent ◽  
The Future ◽  
Light Duty Vehicles ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

On-road transportation contributes 22% of the total CO2 emissions and more than 44% of oil consumption in the U.S. technological advancements and use of alternative fuels are often suggested as ways to reduce these emissions. However, many parameters and relationships that determine the future characteristics of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet and how they change over time are inherently uncertain. Policy makers need to make decisions today given these uncertainties, to shape the future of light-duty vehicles. Decision makers thus need to know the impact of uncertainties on the outcome of their decisions and the associated risks. This paper explores a carefully constructed detailed pathway that results in a significant reduction in fuel use and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in 2050. Inputs are assigned realistic uncertainty bounds, and the impact of uncertainty on this pathway is analyzed. A novel probabilistic fleet model is used here to quantify the uncertainties within advanced vehicle technology development, and life-cycle emissions of alternative fuels and renewable sources. Based on the results from this study, the expected fuel use is about 500 and 350 × 109 l gasoline equivalent, with a standard deviation of about 40 and 80 × 109 l in years 2030 and 2050, respectively. The expected CO2 emissions are about 1360 and 840 Mt CO2 equivalent with a spread of about 130 and 260 Mt CO2 equivalent in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Major contributing factors in determining the future fuel consumption and emissions are also identified and include vehicle scrappage rate, annual growth of vehicle kilometres travelled in the near term, total vehicle sales, fuel consumption of naturally aspirated engines, and percentage of gasoline displaced by cellulosic ethanol. This type of analysis allows policy makers to better understand the impact of their decisions and proposed policies given the technological and market uncertainties that we face today.

scholarly journals Monte Carlo Simulation Methodology to Assess the Impact of Ambient Wind on Emissions from a Light-Commercial Vehicle Running on the Worldwide-Harmonized Light-Duty Vehicles Test Cycle (WLTC)

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 661
Author(s):  
Alexandros T. Zachiotis ◽  
Evangelos G. Giakoumis
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Commercial Vehicle ◽  
Ambient Wind ◽  
Simulation Methodology ◽  
Road Load ◽  
Light Duty ◽  
Light Commercial Vehicle ◽  
Light Duty Vehicles ◽  
The Impact

A Monte Carlo simulation methodology is suggested in order to assess the impact of ambient wind on a vehicle’s performance and emissions. A large number of random wind profiles is generated by implementing the Weibull and uniform statistical distributions for wind speed and direction, respectively. Wind speed data are drawn from eight cities across Europe. The vehicle considered is a diesel-powered, turbocharged, light-commercial vehicle and the baseline trip is the worldwide harmonized light-duty vehicles WLTC cycle. A detailed engine-mapping approach is used as the basis for the results, complemented with experimentally derived correction coefficients to account for engine transients. The properties of interest are (engine-out) NO and soot emissions, as well as fuel and energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Results from this study show that there is an aggregate increase in all properties, vis-à-vis the reference case (i.e., zero wind), if ambient wind is to be accounted for in road load calculation. Mean wind speeds for the different sites examined range from 14.6 km/h to 24.2 km/h. The average increase in the properties studied, across all sites, ranges from 0.22% up to 2.52% depending on the trip and the property (CO2, soot, NO, energy consumption) examined. Based on individual trip assessment, it was found that especially at high vehicle speeds where wind drag becomes the major road load force, CO2 emissions may increase by 28%, NO emissions by 22%, and soot emissions by 13% in the presence of strong headwinds. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the adverse effect of headwinds far exceeds the positive effect of tailwinds, thus explaining the overall increase in fuel/energy consumption as well as emissions, while also highlighting the shortcomings of the current certification procedure, which neglects ambient wind effects.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Future Ocean Acidification to Carbon Climate Feedbacks

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard J. Matear ◽  
Andrew Lenton
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Coral Reefs ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
The Future ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Carbon-climate feedbacks have the potential to significantly impact the future climate by altering atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Zaehle et al., 2010). By modifying the future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the carbon-climate feedbacks will also influence the future trajectory for ocean acidification. Here, we use the CO2 emissions scenarios from 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with an Earth System Model to project the future trajectories of ocean acidification with the inclusion of carbon-climate feedbacks. We show that simulated carbon-climate feedbacks can significantly impact the onset of under-saturated aragonite conditions in the Southern and Arctic Oceans, the suitable habitat for tropical coral and the deepwater saturation states. Under higher emission scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP6.0), the carbon-climate feedbacks advance the onset of under-saturation conditions and the reduction in suitable coral reef habitat by a decade or more. The impact of the carbon-climate feedback is most significant for the medium (RCP4.5) and low emission (RCP2.6) scenarios. For RCP4.5 scenario by 2100, the carbon-climate feedbacks nearly double the area of surface water under-saturated respect to aragonite and reduce by 50 % the surface water suitable for coral reefs. For RCP2.6 scenario by 2100, the carbon-climate feedbacks reduce the area suitable for coral reefs by 40 % and increase the area of under-saturated surface water by 20 %. The high sensitivity of the impact of ocean acidification to the carbon-climate feedbacks in the low to medium emissions scenarios is important because our recent commitments to reduce CO2 emissions are trying to move us on to such an emissions scenario. The study highlights the need to better characterise the carbon-climate feedbacks to ensure we do not excessively stress the oceans by under-estimating the future impact of ocean acidification.

The Scenario Forecasting Analysis of CO2 Emissions of China

2013 ◽  
Vol 869-870 ◽  
pp. 836-839
Author(s):  
Jian Jun Wang ◽  
Li Li
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Future Prospect ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Forecasting Analysis ◽  
The Impact

This paper uses STRIPAT models to find the impact of population, economy and technology on CO2 emissions of China. The result shows the impact of population, economy and technology on CO2 emissions are 1.253, 1.076, and 1.077 respectively. According to the future prospect of China, three scenarios of Chinas economic development are given to forecast the CO2 emissions, the forecasting results shows that if Chinas economic, population and energy consumption is increasing 7%, 0.4%, 5% every year, respectively. CO2 emissions will reach 21.05×108t in 2020. The CO2 emissions per unit GDP is decreasing by 45.54% in 2020 compared to 2005, which can fulfill the Chinese governments promise to decrease the GHG emissions per unit GDP by 40-45% in 2020 compared to 2005.

scholarly journals An evaluation of permanent crops: Evidence from the “Plant the Future” project, Georgia

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 212-222
Author(s):  
Lasha Zivzivadze ◽  
Tengiz Taktakishvili ◽  
Ekaterine Zviadadze ◽  
Giorgi Machavariani
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
High Demand ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Project

Abstract Promoting investments in permanent crops is often considered by the government as a powerful measure to support long-term growth in agriculture. The same attitude is prevalent among agricultural policy makers in Georgia and hence, country’s government and the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture of Georgia initiate and coordinate projects facilitating new investments in permanent crops. The article deals with an evaluation of an impact of “Plant the Future” project in Georgia that provides funds for the potential beneficiaries for planting permanent crops. The structure and scope of the project are discussed in the article, and the relevant data regarding the area planted, financial impact, and beneficiaries for the period from 2015 to 2019 are analysed and the impact projection is made for the period of 2020–2043. Research showed that the target indicators of the project were fully achieved. In addition, there were a high demand from farmers to participate in this project and as a result, the budget spent in 2017–2019 exceeded the planned budget. The project appears to be beneficial in terms of net present values that are positive for all discussed discount rates, meaning that the benefits of the project are greater than costs. The return on investment of the project is around 10%, which is greater than the basic discount rate (8%). Social impact also seems to be high with 1,350 beneficiaries. According to the projection, from 2015 to 2024, around 3,000 beneficiaries will benefit from this project. In the methodology, five evaluation criteria are used, namely, relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability. Based on the evaluation, specific recommendations are given.

Systemic Enterprise Architecture as Future

2014 ◽  
pp. 1-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pallab Saha
Keyword(s):  
Creative Thinking ◽  
Enterprise Architecture ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Pragmatic Approach ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Complex Problems ◽  
National Priority ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Governments are changing by design, necessity, and compulsion. This change is being exacerbated and shaped by megaforces that interact in a complex labyrinth of evolving nodes and connections. As a result, today’s government leaders and policy makers operate in a realm of confounding uncertainties and astounding complexities. These lead to incomplete and often non-actionable information that make decisions increasingly speculative. To unlock the grid and move forward, it is acknowledged that governments of the future have to be connected. Connected government is no utopia. It is simply a pragmatic approach to capitalize on complexity. Enterprise Architecture (EA) as a meta-discipline provides governments and leaders the means to address the twin challenges of dynamism and complexity. As governments become increasingly hyper-connected, they ought to be examined as systems, where holism, causality, heterarchy, and interrelationships are crucial to ensuring overall coherence in a state of omnipresent flux. This contrasts with the traditional fixation on efficiency and cost. Going beyond the rhetoric, this chapter demonstrates the value of amalgamating the systems approach within the EA methodology to address a national priority in Singapore, and provides insights to amplify the impact of EA by integrating creative thinking to tackle complex problems.

The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on the Future of the U.S. Economy

2000 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy Boyd ◽  
K. Doroodian ◽  
Dennis Thornton
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S
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