Reduction of System Reliability Model Uncertainty by Considering Dependent Components With Stochastic Process Loading

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Cheng ◽  
Xiaoping Du
Keyword(s):  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Shared Environment ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Design Component ◽  
Operation Conditions ◽  
Component Design ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Stochastic Load

When component dependence is ignored, a system reliability model may have large model (epistemic) uncertainty with wide reliability bounds. This makes decision making difficult during the system design. Component dependence exists due to the shared environment and operation conditions. It is difficult for system designers to model component dependence because they may not have access to component design details if the components are designed and manufactured by outside suppliers. This research intends to reduce the system reliability model uncertainty with a new way for system designers to consider the component dependence implicitly and automatically without knowing component design details. The proposed method is applicable for a wide range of applications where the time-dependent system stochastic load is shared by components of the system. Simulation is used to obtain the extreme value of the system load for a given period of time, and optimization is employed to estimate the system reliability interval. As a result, the epistemic uncertainty in system reliability can be reduced.

Narrower System Reliability Bounds With Incomplete Component Information and Stochastic Process Loading

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Cheng ◽  
Daniel C. Conrad ◽  
Xiaoping Du
Keyword(s):  
System Reliability ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Shared Environment ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Reliability Bounds ◽  
Component Design ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Stochastic Load

Incomplete component information may lead to wide bounds for system reliability prediction, making decisions difficult in the system design stage. The missing information is often the component dependence, which is a crucial source for the exact system reliability estimation. Component dependence exists due to the shared environment and operating conditions. But it is difficult for system designers to model component dependence because they may have limited information about component design details if outside suppliers designed and manufactured the components. This research intends to produce narrow system reliability bounds with a new way for system designers to consider the component dependence implicitly and automatically without knowing component design details. The proposed method is applicable for a wide range of applications where the time-dependent system stochastic load is shared by components of the system. Simulation is used to obtain the extreme value of the system load for a given period of time, and optimization is employed to estimate the system reliability bounds, which are narrower than those from the traditional method with independent component assumption and completely dependent component assumption. Examples are provided to demonstrate the proposed method.

Reliability Model for Complex Mechanical Component Design

2013 ◽  
Vol 365-366 ◽  
pp. 28-31
Author(s):  
Li Yang Xie ◽  
Wen Xue Qian ◽  
Ning Xiang Wu
Keyword(s):  
System Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Statistical Dependence ◽  
Series System ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Component Reliability ◽  
Damage Site ◽  
Mechanical Component ◽  
Component Design ◽  
Element Failure

Taking into account the uncertainty in material property and component quality, a complex mechanical component such as a gear should be treated as a series system instead of a component when evaluating its reliability, since there exist many sites of equal likelihood to fail. Besides, conventional system reliability model is not applicable to such a system because of the statistical dependence among the failures of the every element (damage site). The present paper presents a model to estimate complex mechanical component reliability by incorporating order statistic of element strength into load-strength interference analysis, which can deal with multiple failure mechanisms, reflect statistical dependence among element failure events and that among different failure modes.

Nuclear Hybrid Energy System Reliability Model Progress Report

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Askin Guler Yigitoglu ◽  
Thomas Harrison ◽  
Michael Scott Greenwood
Keyword(s):  
System Reliability ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Progress Report ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Hybrid Energy System ◽  
Hybrid Energy

scholarly journals Study on Friction in Automotive Shock Absorbers Part 1: Friction Simulation Using a Dynamic Friction Model in the Contact Zone of an FEM Model

Vehicles ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 212-232
Author(s):  
Ludwig Herzog ◽  
Klaus Augsburg
Keyword(s):  
Ride Comfort ◽  
Viscous Friction ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Friction Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Dynamic Friction ◽  
Friction Modeling ◽  
Shock Absorbers ◽  
Operation Conditions ◽  
Wide Range

The important change in the transition from partial to high automation is that a vehicle can drive autonomously, without active human involvement. This fact increases the current requirements regarding ride comfort and dictates new challenges for automotive shock absorbers. There exist two common types of automotive shock absorber with two friction types: The intended viscous friction dissipates the chassis vibrations, while the unwanted solid body friction is generated by the rubbing of the damper’s seals and guides during actuation. The latter so-called static friction impairs ride comfort and demands appropriate friction modeling for the control of adaptive or active suspension systems. In this article, a simulation approach is introduced to model damper friction based on the most friction-relevant parameters. Since damper friction is highly dependent on geometry, which can vary widely, three-dimensional (3D) structural FEM is used to determine the deformations of the damper parts resulting from mounting and varying operation conditions. In the respective contact zones, a dynamic friction model is applied and parameterized based on the single friction point measurements. Subsequent to the parameterization of the overall friction model with geometry data, operation conditions, material properties and friction model parameters, single friction point simulations are performed, analyzed and validated against single friction point measurements. It is shown that this simulation method allows for friction prediction with high accuracy. Consequently, its application enables a wide range of parameters relevant to damper friction to be investigated with significantly increased development efficiency.

scholarly journals Copula-Based Bayesian Reliability Analysis of a Product of a Probability and a Frequency Model for Parallel Systems When Components Are Dependent

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1697
Author(s):  
Shi-Woei Lin ◽  
Tapiwa Blessing Matanhire ◽  
Yi-Ting Liu
Keyword(s):  
System Reliability ◽  
Classification Tree ◽  
Parallel Systems ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Frequency Model ◽  
Independent Components ◽  
Aggregate Analysis ◽  
Dependence Assumption ◽  
Disaggregate Analysis

While the dependence assumption among the components is naturally important in evaluating the reliability of a system, studies investigating the issues of aggregation errors in Bayesian reliability analyses have been focused mainly on systems with independent components. This study developed a copula-based Bayesian reliability model to formulate dependency between components of a parallel system and to estimate the failure rate of the system. In particular, we integrated Monte Carlo simulation and classification tree learning to identify key factors that affect the magnitude of errors in the estimation of posterior means of system reliability (for different Bayesian analysis approaches—aggregate analysis, disaggregate analysis, and simplified disaggregate analysis) to provide important guidelines for choosing the most appropriate approach for analyzing a model of products of a probability and a frequency for parallel systems with dependent components.

A Dynamic Service Pool Size Configuration Mechanism for Service-Oriented Workflow

2011 ◽  
Vol 186 ◽  
pp. 499-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pan He ◽  
Jie Xu ◽  
Kai Gui Wu ◽  
Jun Hao Wen
Keyword(s):  
System Reliability ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Pool Size ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Optimal Method ◽  
Service Oriented ◽  
Overall Reliability

Service-oriented workflows are the fundamental structures in service-oriented applications and changes in the workflow could cause dramatic changes in system reliability. In several ways to re-heal workflows in execution, re-sizing service pools in the workflow is practical and easy to implement. In order to quickly adjust to workflow or environmental changes, this paper presents a dynamic service pool size configuration mechanism from the point of view of maintaining workflow reliability. An architecture-based reliability model is used to evaluate the overall reliability of a workflow with service pools and an optimal method is proposed to get the combination of service pool size aiming at minimizing the sum of service pool size subject to the workflow reliability requirement. A case study is used to explain this method and experiment results show how to change service pool size to meet the workflow reliability requirements.

scholarly journals Holistic Approach to Design, Test, and Optimize Stand-Alone SOFC-Reformer Systems

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 348
Author(s):  
Michael Höber ◽  
Benjamin Königshofer ◽  
Philipp Wachter ◽  
Gjorgji Nusev ◽  
Pavle Boskoski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
High Efficiency ◽  
Diffusion Processes ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Maximum Error ◽  
Gas Diffusion ◽  
Electrochemical Analysis ◽  
Internal Reforming ◽  
Operation Conditions ◽  
Wide Range

Reliable electrical and thermal energy supplies are basic requirements for modern societies and their food supply. Stand-alone stationary power generators based on solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) represent an attractive solution to the problems of providing the energy required in both rural communities and in rurally-based industries such as those of the agricultural industry. The great advantages of SOFC-based systems are high efficiency and high fuel flexibility. A wide range of commercially available fuels can be used with no or low-effort pre-treatment. In this study, a design process for stand-alone system consisting of a reformer unit and an SOFC-based power generator is presented and tested. An adequate agreement between the measured and simulated values for the gas compositions after a reformer unit is observed with a maximum error of 3 vol% (volume percent). Theoretical degradation free operation conditions determined by employing equilibrium calculations are identified to be steam to carbon ratio (H2O/C) higher 0.6 for auto-thermal reformation and H2O/C higher 1 for internal reforming. The produced gas mixtures are used to fuel large planar electrolyte supported cells (ESC). Current densities up to 500 mA/cm2 at 0.75 V are reached under internal reforming conditions without degradation of the cells anode during the more than 500 h long-term test run. More detailed electrochemical analysis of SOFCs fed with different fuel mixtures showed that major losses are caused by gas diffusion processes.

scholarly journals Development of a condition monitoring system for the refractory lining of induction crucible steelmaking furnaces

Vestnik IGEU ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 58-66
Author(s):  
I.Yu. Dolgikh ◽  
M.G. Markov
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Refractory Lining ◽  
Control Object ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Microprocessor System ◽  
Induction Melting ◽  
Monitoring And Control ◽  
Operation Conditions ◽  
Emergency Shutdown ◽  
Wide Range

A wide range of technological advantages of induction crucible melting furnaces makes their use in various sectors of metallurgical production relevant. However, hard operation conditions of the refractory lining of such furnaces makes it necessary to constantly monitor its condition, with the aim to extend the crucible life and prevent emergencies. Moreover, traditional methods based on the use of a bottom electrode and indication of current leakage to earth do not provide a continuous display of the lining destruction degree and make it possible to register only a critical level that requires an emergency shutdown and emptying of the furnace. This circumstance makes it necessary to develop and implement specialized electrical systems with a monitoring and control system that ensures the determination and visualization of the lining wear level and, if necessary, makes an emergency shutdown of the equipment from the power source. The developed complex is based on a microprocessor system that continuously measures the temperature at the control points at the boundary between the bottom and crucible base layers and compares the obtained values with the settings, which are determined previously on a two-dimensional axisymmetric model of the designed furnace by solving the stationary heat conduction equation at various levels of lining failure. We have developed the structure, scheme, and program for a microprocessor-based monitoring and emergency shutdown system of an induction furnace, as well as a mathematical model of the control object, which allows determining the temperature settings. The reliability of the results is confirmed by the applicability of the models to real objects, and is verified by debugging the microprocessor part in the MPLab-Sim and Proteus programs. The obtained results can be used in the practical implementation of the monitoring system and emergency shutdown of induction melting furnaces, which allows increasing the safety of their operation and extending the lining life due to timely repair.

scholarly journals Development of a New Stoichiometric Equilibrium-Based Model for Wood Chips and Mixed Paper Wastes Gasification by ASPEN Plus

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahar Safarianbana ◽  
Runar Unnthorsson ◽  
Christiaan Richter
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Aspen Plus ◽  
Wood Chips ◽  
Thermochemical Conversion ◽  
Waste Biomass ◽  
Operation Conditions ◽  
High Heating Value ◽  
Cold Gas Efficiency ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Steady State Simulation

Abstract Wood and paper residues are usually processed as wastes, but they can also be used to produce electrical and thermal energy through processes of thermochemical conversion of gasification. This study proposes a new steady state simulation model for down draft waste biomass gasification developed using the commercial software Aspen Plus for optimization of the gasifier performance. The model was validated by comparison with experimental data obtained from six different operation conditions. This model is used for analysis of gasification performance of wood chips and mixed paper wastes. The operating parameters of temperature and moisture content (MC) have been varied over wide range and their effect on the high heating value (HHV) of syngas and cold gas efficiency (CGE) were investigated. The results show that increasing the temperature improves the gasifier performance and it increases the production of CO and H2 which leads to higher LHV and CGE. However, an increase in moisture content reduces gasifier performance and results in low CGE.

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