Decision-Based Design Using Time-Varying Preferences Represented by Stochastic Processes

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijitashwa Pandey ◽  
Zissimos P. Mourelatos
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Processes ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Utility Functions ◽  
Options Pricing ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Engineering Systems ◽  
Black Scholes ◽  
A Cell ◽  
Decision Based Design

Soliciting and expressing the preferences of a decision maker in engineering design is critical. In general, the preferences vary through time, complicating the design of engineering systems. In this article, we propose that if parameterized utility functions are used to model the preferences, the time-varying characteristics of the parameters can provide valuable information on the likely decisions the decision maker can make at a future time. To model the time-dependent uncertainty in preferences, we use parameterized utility functions with the parameters characterized by stochastic processes and demonstrate how the design process is affected by stationarity properties of the random parameters. We work in the normative utility theoretic domain and show a property of the multiplicative utility function that allows us to use the common Black-Scholes-Merton options pricing model from finance, to account for variability in preferences with time. Finally, we discuss how to modify the design process so that optimal products are ready when there is a future need for them. The applicability of our approach is demonstrated using a cell phone example.

A PARADOX OF INTUITION: HEDGING THE LIMIT OR HEDGING IN THE LIMIT?

2002 ◽  
Vol 05 (07) ◽  
pp. 729-736
Author(s):  
J. R. SOBEHART ◽  
S. C. KEENAN
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Processes ◽  
Differential Calculus ◽  
Options Pricing ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
No Arbitrage ◽  
Itô Calculus ◽  
Black Scholes

Here we review the notion of covergence in Itô calculus and its application to the Black-Scholes options pricing model and its extensions. The concept of covergence is fundamental to the development of the differential calculus of stochastic processes. It is also the key to understanding the validity of the no arbitrage condition imposed by Black and Scholes (1973) that leads to their options pricing equation.

Epidemic-Like Stochastic Processes with Time-Varying Behavior

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 160-166
Author(s):  
Yingdong Lu ◽  
Mark S. Squillante ◽  
Chai Wah Wu
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Processes ◽  
Time Varying

Decoding Neural Spike Trains: Calculating the Probability That a Spike Train and an External Signal Are Related

2002 ◽  
Vol 87 (3) ◽  
pp. 1659-1663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terence D. Sanger
Keyword(s):  
Spike Train ◽  
Cell Activity ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
External Signal ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Neural Firing ◽  
Sensory Stimuli ◽  
Correlation Methods ◽  
A Cell ◽  
Recursive Calculation

Experimental and clinical applications of extracellular recordings of spiking cell activity frequently are used to relate the activity of a cell to externally measurable signals such as surface potentials, sensory stimuli, or movement measurements. When the external signal is time-varying, correlation methods have traditionally been used to quantify the degree of relation with the neural firing. However, in some circumstances correlation methods can give misleading results. A new algorithm is described that estimates the extent to which a spike train is related to a continuous time-varying signal. The technique calculates the probability of generating a spike train with Poisson statistics if the time-varying signal determines the Poisson rate. This is accomplished by successive division of the signal and the spike train into halves and recursive calculation of the probability of each half-signal. The performance of the new algorithm is compared with the performance of correlation methods on simulated data.

scholarly journals The Downlink Performance for Cell-Free Massive MIMO with Instantaneous CSI in Slowly Time-Varying Channels

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (11) ◽  
pp. 1552
Author(s):  
Tongzhou Han ◽  
Danfeng Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Power Control ◽  
Massive Mimo ◽  
Mimo Systems ◽  
Mimo System ◽  
Multiple Input Multiple Output ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Input Multiple Output ◽  
Efficiency Performance ◽  
A Cell ◽  
Time Varying Channel

In centralized massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems, the channel hardening phenomenon can occur, in which the channel behaves as almost fully deterministic as the number of antennas increases. Nevertheless, in a cell-free massive MIMO system, the channel is less deterministic. In this paper, we propose using instantaneous channel state information (CSI) instead of statistical CSI to obtain the power control coefficient in cell-free massive MIMO. Access points (APs) and user equipment (UE) have sufficient time to obtain instantaneous CSI in a slowly time-varying channel environment. We derive the achievable downlink rate under instantaneous CSI for frequency division duplex (FDD) cell-free massive MIMO systems and apply the results to the power control coefficients. For FDD systems, quantized channel coefficients are proposed to reduce feedback overhead. The simulation results show that the spectral efficiency performance when using instantaneous CSI is approximately three times higher than that achieved using statistical CSI.

Improving the Conceptual Design Process for Unmanned Underwater Vehicles

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Laun
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Design ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
The United States ◽  
Engineering Systems ◽  
Ocean Engineering ◽  
Unmanned Underwater Vehicles ◽  
Marine Engineering

With a renewed global focus on anti-submarine warfare (ASW), the United States Navy will increasingly rely on unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) technology to serve as a cost-effective force multiplier. Modern UUV development necessitates a uniquely constrained, iterative approach to the traditional submarine design spiral. Considering a broad spectrum of customer-generated requirements, the UUV conceptual design process applies the best practices of naval architecture, marine engineering, ocean engineering, systems engineering, and submersible design. This paper provides an assessment of the traditional approach to the UUV design and development process. Specifically, this paper analyzes the design philosophy for modern UUVs, provides a design framework for the UUV conceptual design process, and details specific recommendations to encourage innovation in the subsea realm.

Privacy Protection in Vehicular Ad-Hoc Networks

2014 ◽  
pp. 295-332
Author(s):  
Gongjun Yan ◽  
Danda B. Rawat ◽  
Bhed Bahadur Bista ◽  
Wu He ◽  
Awny Alnusair
Keyword(s):  
Privacy Protection ◽  
Capacity Planning ◽  
Vehicular Networks ◽  
Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Detailed Simulation ◽  
A Cell ◽  
Hoc Networks

The first main contribution of this chapter is to take a non-trivial step towards providing a robust and scalable solution to privacy protection in vehicular networks. To promote scalability and robustness the authors employ two strategies. First, they view vehicular networks as consisting of non-overlapping subnetworks, each local to a geographic area referred to as a cell. Each cell has a server that maintains a list of pseudonyms that are valid for use in the cell. Each pseudonym has two components: the cell’s ID and a random number as host ID. Instead of issuing pseudonyms to vehicles proactively (as virtually all existing schemes do) the authors issue pseudonyms only to those vehicles that request them. This strategy is suggested by the fact that, in a typical scenario, only a fraction of the vehicles in an area will engage in communication with other vehicles and/or with the infrastructure and, therefore, do not need pseudonyms. The second main contribution is to model analytically the time-varying request for pseudonyms in a given cell. This is important for capacity planning purposes since it allows system managers to predict, by taking into account the time-varying attributes of the traffic, the probability that a given number of pseudonyms will be required at a certain time as well as the expected number of pseudonyms in use in a cell at a certain time. Empirical results obtained by detailed simulation confirm the accuracy of the authors’ analytical predictions.

Material Selection Using a Novel Multiple Attribute Decision Making Method

2012 ◽  
pp. 252-266
Author(s):  
R. V. Rao ◽  
B. K. Patel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Material Selection ◽  
Multiple Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Selection Problem ◽  
Multiple Attribute ◽  
Selection Of

Selection of a most appropriate material is a very important task in design process of every product. There is a need for simple, systematic, and logical methods or mathematical tools to guide decision makers in considering a number of selection attributes and their interrelations and in making right decisions. This paper proposes a novel multiple attribute decision making (MADM) method for solving the material selection problem. The method considers the objective weights of importance of the attributes as well as the subjective preferences of the decision maker to decide the integrated weights of importance of the attributes. Furthermore, the method uses fuzzy logic to convert the qualitative attributes into the quantitative attributes. Two examples are presented to illustrate the potential of the proposed method.

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