scholarly journals Time-Based Modeling of Linguistic Preference to Preferential Probability

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andy Dong ◽  
Tomonori Honda ◽  
Maria C. Yang
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Natural Language ◽  
State Transition ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Transition Matrices ◽  
Probability Distribution Functions ◽  
Semantic Resources ◽  
Model Preference

In this paper, we present a method to estimate the likely concept a committee of designers will select given their verbalized preferences toward each alternative. In order to perform this estimation, we present a new method of preference elicitation based on natural language. First, we show a way to model preference in the natural language of appraisal, which describes the degree of intensity and the uncertainty of preference based upon gradable semantic resources to express appraisals. We then show a way to map linguistic appraisals into probability distribution functions. Finally, we present a Markov model that utilizes these probability distribution functions in state transition matrices to calculate in a time-varying manner the change of preference over time. We present a case study to illustrate the validity of the method.

scholarly journals Performance Probability Distribution Function for Modelling Solar Radiation in South Southern Nigeria: A Case Study of Yenagoa

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Chukwutem Isaac Abiodun ◽  
Obiora Emeka Anisiji
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Function ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Scale Parameters ◽  
Probability Distribution Functions ◽  
Statistical Distribution Function

This study has attempted to assess the performance of the most suitable statistical distribution function for modelling solar radiation over Yenagoa, Bayelsa State in Nigeria. The probability distribution functions are tested based on eleven years (2007-2017) solar radiation data obtained from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Six probability distribution functions are tested to ascertain the most appropriate one based on four different statistical tools and fitting accuracy. The associated parameters of the most appropriate fitted probability distribution function are calculated and the trends in the characteristic of the solar radiation are deduced. The result shows that logistic distribution presents the most suitable probability distribution function for modelling solar radiation over the selected environment with RMSE of 1.500 KWh/m2/day, MAE of 1.260 KWh/m2/day, MAPE of 22.000% and R2 of 0.880.When compared with the other five distribution functions, the same trend could be seen although with different values of RMSE, MAE, MAPE and R2. The estimated distribution location and scale parameters of the model vary with month and season. The overall result will be useful for predicting future solar radiation over the studied environment. It will also be a good reference point for the design of large solar power projects in Yenagoa in particular and south southern Nigerian environments  at large.

Probability Distribution Functions for the Random Forced Burgers Equation

1997 ◽  
Vol 78 (10) ◽  
pp. 1904-1907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weinan E ◽  
Konstantin Khanin ◽  
Alexandre Mazel ◽  
Yakov Sinai
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Burgers Equation ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Probability Distribution Functions

Exploring probability distribution functions best-fitting the kinetic energy of coarse particles at above threshold flow conditions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Farhadi ◽  
Manousos Valyrakis
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Test Section ◽  
Particle Transport ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Flow Conditions ◽  
Probability Distribution Functions ◽  
Transport Regime

<p>Applying an instrumented particle [1-3], the probability density functions of kinetic energy of a coarse particle (at different solid densities) mobilised over a range of above threshold flow conditions conditions corresponding to the intermittent transport regime, were explored. The experiments were conducted in the Water Engineering Lab at the University of Glasgow on a tilting recirculating flume with 800 (length) × 90 (width) cm dimension. Twelve different flow conditions corresponding to intermittent transport regime for the range of particle densities examined herein, have been implemented in this research. Ensuring fully developed flow conditions, the start of the test section was located at 3.2 meters upstream of the flume outlet. The bed surface of the flume is flat and made up of well-packed glass beads of 16.2 mm diameter, offering a uniform roughness over which the instrumented particle is transported. MEMS sensors are embedded within the instrumented particle with 3-axis gyroscope and 3-axis accelerometer. At the beginning of each experimental run, instrumented particle is placed at the upstream of the test section, fully exposed to the free stream flow. Its motion is recorded with top and side cameras to enable a deeper understanding of particle transport processes. Using results from sets of instrumented particle transport experiments with varying flow rates and particle densities, the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the instrumented particles kinetic energy, were generated. The best-fitted PDFs were selected by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the results were discussed considering the light of the recent literature of the particle velocity distributions.</p><p>[1] Valyrakis, M.; Alexakis, A. Development of a “smart-pebble” for tracking sediment transport. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics (River Flow 2016), St. Louis, MO, USA, 12–15 July 2016.</p><p>[2] Al-Obaidi, K., Xu, Y. & Valyrakis, M. 2020, The Design and Calibration of Instrumented Particles for Assessing Water Infrastructure Hazards, Journal of Sensors and Actuator Networks, vol. 9, no. 3, 36.</p><p>[3] Al-Obaidi, K. & Valyrakis, M. 2020, Asensory instrumented particle for environmental monitoring applications: development and calibration, IEEE sensors journal (accepted).</p>

Design for Project Change Management: Part 2 — Attribute Design

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Xue ◽  
S. Y. Cheing ◽  
P. Gu
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Design ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Taguchi Method ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Probability Distribution Functions ◽  
Construction Tasks ◽  
Design Attribute ◽  
Value Changes ◽  
Design Aspect

This research introduces a new systematic approach to identify the optimal design configuration and attributes to minimize the potential construction project changes. The second part of this paper focuses on the attribute design aspect. In this research, the potential changes of design attribute values are modeled by probability distribution functions. Attribute values of the design whose construction tasks are least sensitive to the changes of these attribute values are identified based upon Taguchi Method. In addition, estimation of the potential project change cost due to the potential design attribute value changes is also discussed. Case studies in pipeline engineering design and construction have been conducted to show the effectiveness of the introduced approach.

scholarly journals Using Percentiles to Communicate Snowfall Uncertainty

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1259-1265 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Novak ◽  
Keith F. Brill ◽  
Wallace A. Hogsett
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
False Alarm ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Risk Tolerance ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
False Alarm Ratio ◽  
Probability Distribution Functions

Abstract An objective technique to determine forecast snowfall ranges consistent with the risk tolerance of users is demonstrated. The forecast snowfall ranges are based on percentiles from probability distribution functions that are assumed to be perfectly calibrated. A key feature of the technique is that the snowfall range varies dynamically, with the resultant ranges varying based on the spread of ensemble forecasts at a given forecast projection, for a particular case, for a particular location. Furthermore, this technique allows users to choose their risk tolerance, quantified in terms of the expected false alarm ratio for forecasts of snowfall range. The technique is applied to the 4–7 March 2013 snowstorm at two different locations (Chicago, Illinois, and Washington, D.C.) to illustrate its use in different locations with different forecast uncertainties. The snowfall range derived from the Weather Prediction Center Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Forecast suite is found to be statistically reliable for the day 1 forecast during the 2013/14 season, providing confidence in the practical applicability of the technique.

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