Decision-Analytic Concept Selection and Value of Information in a Public Project

This paper presents the use of a mathematical model in updating a decision maker’s belief before selecting a product/system concept and demonstrates a procedure to calculate the maximum monetary value of such a model in terms of the expected value of information. Acquiring information about uncertainty and updating belief according to the new information is an important step in concept selection. However, obtaining additional information can be considered beneficial only if the acquisition cost is less than the benefit. In this paper, a mathematical model is used as an information source that predicts outcomes of an uncertainty. The prediction, however, is imperfect information because the model is constructed based on simplifying assumptions. Thus, the expected value of imperfect information needs to be calculated in order to evaluate the tradeoff between the accuracy and the cost of model prediction (information). The construction and analysis of a mathematical model, the calculation of the expected value of information (model prediction) and updating the belief based on the model prediction are illustrated using a concept selection for a public project.

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A Decision-Analytic System Concept Selection for a Public Project

Journal of Mechanical Design ◽

10.1115/1.2976455 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 130 (11) ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Shun Takai ◽

Kosuke Ishii

Keyword(s):

Linear Combination ◽

Decision Maker ◽

Target System ◽

Concept Selection ◽

Public Project ◽

System Concept ◽

Unique Customer ◽

System Requirements ◽

Selection For ◽

The Cost

This paper presents a decision-analytic system concept selection for a public project. In the proposed approach, the decision-maker (engineer) chooses a system concept and requests a budget for building the system. The unique customer (government) decides whether to approve the project but also has the option to cancel the project if the cost of the project exceeds the budget. Thus, at the time of system concept selection, the cost of the system, the government’s criterion to approve the project, and its criterion to continue/cancel the project when the cost exceeds the budget are modeled as uncertainties. To model the uncertainty of project continuation, the engineer assumes that the government’s criterion to continue/cancel the project is a linear combination of its initial criterion to approve the project and the budget. By analyzing the government’s option to cancel the project, the engineer can optimize his or her choice of a system concept (technology and target system requirements) and budget.

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Effects of 2D Online and 3D Virtual World Meeting Spaces on the Performance of a Concept Selection Task by Engineering Design Teams

PsycEXTRA Dataset ◽

10.1037/e578902012-359 ◽

2011 ◽

Author(s):

Necmettin Firat Ozkan ◽

Joel S. Greenstein

Keyword(s):

Engineering Design ◽

Virtual World ◽

Selection Task ◽

Design Teams ◽

Concept Selection ◽

3D Virtual World

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Best Practice in Arctic Development Concept Selection—How to Avoid the Traps

ISCORD 2013 ◽

10.1061/9780784412978.033 ◽

2013 ◽

Author(s):

Chris Mole ◽

Mike Paulin ◽

Amy Sturge

Keyword(s):

Best Practice ◽

Concept Selection ◽

Development Concept

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ALGORITHM FOR DETERMINING THE DEGREE VALUES OF CONFIDENTIAL DOCUMENTS OF THE ORGANIZATION

VESTNIK OF ASTRAKHAN STATE TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY SERIES MANAGEMENT COMPUTER SCIENCE AND INFORMATICS ◽

10.24143/2072-9502-2017-1-80-88 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 80-88

Author(s):

Sergey Valerevich Belov ◽

Irina Mikhalovna Kosmacheva ◽

Irina Vyacheslavovna Sibikina

Keyword(s):

Information Security ◽

Russian Federation ◽

Value Of Information ◽

Weighting Factor ◽

State Regulation ◽

The State ◽

Information Security Management ◽

Pair Comparison ◽

The Russian Federation ◽

Properties Of Information

To solve the problem of information security management the method was proposed that allows determining the degree of importance of confidential documents of the organization. The urgency of the proposed algorithm was substantiated taking into account the requirements of the legislation of the Russian Federation in the sphere of information security. The stages prior to the formation of the list of confidential documents of the organization were described. A review of the main documents of the legal and regulatory framework was carried out including documents relating to the state regulation of relations in the sphere of information security. The classes of protected information for the accessing categories were considered. The criteria changes of the value of information in the process of time were represented. The algorithm of formation of the list of confidential documents of the organization based on the properties of information was offered. The algorithm is based on an expert method of pair comparison of alternatives. The result of the use of this method is a number of confidential documents, ranked in descending order of importance. For each document the weighting factor of importance can be calculated. The verification stage of the degree of expert consistency was included in the methodology to eliminate the use of erroneous expert data. The application of the methodology is illustrated by a calculated example.

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