Probabilistic Design Methodology and the Application of Probabilistic Fault Tree Analysis to Machine Design
Abstract This paper gives an overview of Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM) with emphasis on quantification of the effects of uncertainties for structural variables and the evaluation of failure probability. The application of Probabilistic Fault Tree Analysis (PFTA) to the design of a shaft carrying a spur gear is also presented. The PFTA includes the development of a fault tree to represent the system, construction of an approximation function for bottom events, computation of sensitivity factors of design variables, and the calculation of the system reliability. The computer code employed for the analyses is known as “Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress” (NESSUS). NESSUS is developed under NASA probabilistic structural analysis program.