scholarly journals An Overview of Engineering Concepts and Current Design Algorithms for Probabilistic Structural Analysis

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. F. Duffy ◽  
J. Hu ◽  
D. A. Hopkins
Keyword(s):  
Failure Analysis ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Failure Criteria ◽  
Initial Section ◽  
State Function ◽  
Probabilistic Design ◽  
Weibull Analysis ◽  
Initial Portion ◽  
Design Philosophy ◽  
Probabilistic Failure Analysis

Abstract The article begins by examining the fundamentals of traditional deterministic design philosophy. The initial section outlines the concepts of failure criteria and limit state functions, two traditional notions that are embedded in deterministic design philosophy. This is followed by a discussion regarding safety factors (a possible limit state function) and the common utilization of statistical concepts in deterministic engineering design approaches. Next, the fundamental aspects of a probabilistic failure analysis are explored, and it is shown that deterministic design concepts mentioned in the initial portion of the article are embedded in probabilistic design methods. For components fabricated from ceramic materials (and other similarly brittle materials) the probabilistic design approach yields the widely used Weibull analysis after suitable assumptions are incorporated. The authors point out that Weibull analysis provides the rare instance where closed form solutions are available for a probabilistic failure analysis. Since numerical methods are usually required to evaluate component reliabilities, a section on Monte Carlo methods is included to introduce the concept. The article concludes with a presentation of the technical aspects that support the numerical method known as fast probability integration (FPI). This includes a discussion of the Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler approximations.

Reliability-Based Factors of Safety for Vortex Induced Vibration Fatigue Using Field Measurements

2013 ◽  
Vol 135 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Tognarelli ◽  
Emmanuel Fontaine ◽  
Pierre Beynet ◽  
Mikhail Santosa ◽  
Hayden Marcollo
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Failure Criteria ◽  
State Function ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Vortex Induced Vibration ◽  
Vibration Fatigue

The development of a vortex induced vibration (VIV) fatigue factor of safety (FoS) consistent with state-of-the-art industry design practice is cast within the coherent framework of reliability analysis. The proposed methodology consists of the following steps: (i) define the failure criteria or limit-state function (ii) setup a deterministic analysis model (iii) characterize the uncertainties involved in the problem (iv) propagate the uncertainties through the deterministic model and assess the probability of failure due to VIV fatigue and (v) calculate the FoS required to achieve a given failure probability. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by determining the FoS associated with using state-of-the-art VIV prediction models to attain varying reliability levels (probabilities of failure) in a hypothetical design scenario. Prediction uncertainty is based herein on measured flow and response data for several full-scale drilling risers working in the field. Results indicate that depending on the reliability level required of a particular design, different FoS than those that currently appear in guidance may be appropriate. Results also indicate the sensitivity of the FoS to the riser and prevailing current type, analysis program and input parameters, and accumulation of conservatism in aggregate versus single-event damage predictions.

Advances of a FEM for the Failure Probability Evaluation of Masonry Vehicular Bridge Support Piers

2012 ◽  
Vol 538-541 ◽  
pp. 580-585
Author(s):  
Luis Horacio Martínez-Mártinez ◽  
Gustavo Mendoza-Chavez ◽  
David Joaquin Delgado-Hernandez ◽  
David De León Escobedo ◽  
Elia Mercedes Alonso Guzmán ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Structural Engineering ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Element Model ◽  
Failure Criteria ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
State Function ◽  
Limit State Function ◽  
Risk Magnitude

One of the responsibilities of a Civil Engineer is to make decisions regarding preservation of infrastructure; therefore, there have been established concepts such as risk and risk analysis. Risk analysis, is a methodology applied to determine and evaluate the risk magnitude. From the structural engineering point of view, it is required that any structure become secure, this means that the capacity to withstand external actions (strength) will be higher than these actions (loads). In order to determine the structural safety, it is required to define the failure of the structure that it is not strongly related with the collapse of the structure; the failure criteria needs to be fixed depending on the use of the building and the consequences associated with the interruption of services provided by the facility. The failure then, is calculated by means of a limit state function in where it is established the failure criteria; failure is reached when a specific condition (strength) is surpassed by the actions over the structure. The present work aims to propose a preliminary Finite Element Model (FEM) that represents a pier used as support for vehicular bridges. This FEM is required for the assessment of mechanical behavior of the structure that will be used for the determination of the limit state function needed for risk assessment. Most of the simulations with FEM presented in literature are very used for modeling of masonry walls, but it is not usual to model structures such as bridge piers.

Reliability-Based Factors of Safety for VIV Fatigue Using Field Measurements

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Tognarelli ◽  
Emmanuel Fontaine ◽  
Pierre Beynet ◽  
Mikhail Santosa ◽  
Hayden Marcollo
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Failure Criteria ◽  
State Function ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Measured Flow ◽  
Set Up

The development of a Vortex Induced Vibration (VIV) fatigue Factor of Safety (FoS) consistent with state-of-the-art industry design practice is cast within the coherent framework of reliability analysis. The proposed methodology consists of the following steps: (i) define the failure criteria or limit-state function, (ii) set-up a deterministic analysis model, (iii) characterize the uncertainties involved in the problem, (iv) propagate the uncertainties through the deterministic model and assess the probability of failure due to VIV fatigue and (v) calculate the FoS required to achieve a given failure probability. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by determining the FoS associated with using state-of-the-art VIV prediction models to attain varying reliability levels (probabilities of failure) in a hypothetical design scenario. Prediction uncertainty is based herein on measured flow and response data for several full-scale drilling risers working in the field. Results indicate that depending on the reliability level required of a particular design, different FoS than those that currently appear in guidance may be appropriate. Results also indicate the sensitivity of the FoS to the riser and prevailing current type; analysis program and input parameters; and accumulation of conservatism in aggregate vs. single-event damage predictions.

Reliability Analysis of Asphalt Pavement Structure Based on Three-Dimensional Finite Element

2011 ◽  
Vol 255-260 ◽  
pp. 3421-3425
Author(s):  
Shi Bin Ma ◽  
Kai Wang ◽  
Yang Feng Wu ◽  
Lian Yu Wei ◽  
Ming Wei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Asphalt Pavement ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Failure Criteria ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
State Function ◽  
Element Analysis ◽  
Pavement Structure

The design of asphalt pavements in china is currently based on the multilayered elastic method, which is analytical in nature and yields stresses, strains, and deflections in the pavement system for a particular loading condition and pavement geometry, which are compared with established failure criteria to determine the performance of the given pavement. This design approaches is deterministic. In this paper, typical asphalt pavement structure reliability analysis was performed in which factors that affect pavement reliability regarded as input random , pavement surface deflection, layers of bottom stress and limit state function regarded as output variables , by reliability tool infinite element analysis, base on Monte Carlo’s Latin hypercube sampling method.At last the paper pertinently offered decision basis for improve the reliability of pavement structure and important reference values for drafting and selecting of asphalt pavement design parameters through calculating the reliability of pavement structure, sensitivity analysis of the design parameters is made.

Reliability and reliability-based sensitivity analysis of self-centering buckling restrained braces using meta-models

2021 ◽  
pp. 1045389X2110263
Author(s):  
Seyede Vahide Hashemi ◽  
Mahmoud Miri ◽  
Mohsen Rashki ◽  
Sadegh Etedali
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
State Function ◽  
Reliability Indices ◽  
Buckling Restrained Brace ◽  
Polynomial Response Surface ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamic Analyses ◽  
High Computational Cost

This paper aims to carry out sensitivity analyses to study how the effect of each design variable on the performance of self-centering buckling restrained brace (SC-BRB) and the corresponding buckling restrained brace (BRB) without shape memory alloy (SMA) rods. Furthermore, the reliability analyses of BRB and SC-BRB are performed in this study. Considering the high computational cost of the simulation methods, three Meta-models including the Kriging, radial basis function (RBF), and polynomial response surface (PRSM) are utilized to construct the surrogate models. For this aim, the nonlinear dynamic analyses are conducted on both BRB and SC-BRB by using OpenSees software. The results showed that the SMA area, SMA length ratio, and BRB core area have the most effect on the failure probability of SC-BRB. It is concluded that Kriging-based Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) gives the best performance to estimate the limit state function (LSF) of BRB and SC-BRB in the reliability analysis procedures. Considering the effects of changing the maximum cyclic loading on the failure probability computation and comparison of the failure probability for different LSFs, it is also found that the reliability indices of SC-BRB were always higher than the corresponding reliability indices determined for BRB which confirms the performance superiority of SC-BRB than BRB.

An Efficient Response Surface Method Using Givens Transformation for Structural Reliability Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 532-533 ◽  
pp. 408-411
Author(s):  
Wei Tao Zhao ◽  
Yi Yang ◽  
Tian Jun Yu
Keyword(s):  
Response Surface ◽  
Response Surface Method ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
State Function ◽  
Limit State Function ◽  
Surface Method ◽  
Mathematical Techniques ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Improved Accuracy

The response surface method was proposed as a collection of statistical and mathematical techniques that are useful for modeling and analyzing a system which is influenced by several input variables. This method gives an explicit approximation of the implicit limit state function of the structure through a number of deterministic structural analyses. However, the position of the experimental points is very important to improve the accuracy of the evaluation of failure probability. In the paper, the experimental points are obtained by using Givens transformation in such way these experimental points nearly close to limit state function. A Numerical example is presented to demonstrate the improved accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method compared to the classical response surface method. As seen from the result of the example, the proposed method leads to a better approximation of the limit state function over a large region of the design space, and the number of experimental points using the proposed method is less than that of classical response surface method.

A Reliability-Based Early Warning System for Real-Time Monitoring on RC Buildings

2012 ◽  
Vol 446-449 ◽  
pp. 3422-3427
Author(s):  
Wang Sheng Liu ◽  
Ming Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Warning System ◽  
State Function ◽  
Real Time Monitoring ◽  
Rc Buildings ◽  
Load Effect

Today there is an urgent need for effective monitoring whether for old buildings or new ones. While conventional early warning system for real-time monitoring is based on safety factor, this paper proposes a new reliability-based framework to monitor the safety of RC buildings probabilistically. The framework includes modeling resistance, predicting probability distribution of load effect, calculating reliability and setting reliability index threshold. The in-situ test data enables to update the resistance model through a Bayesian process. Meanwhile, the observed monitoring data predicts the probability distribution of load effect. FORM is used to calculate the reliability because the limit state function for real-time monitoring is linear and simple. This study shows that the reliability-based early warning system is of more scientific sense in quantifying the safety and may be applied to many engineering fields.

Response surface method strategies coupled with NLFEA for structural reliability analysis of prestressed bridges

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia J. Sarmiento Nova ◽  
Jaime Gonzalez-Libreros ◽  
Gabriel Sas ◽  
Rafael A. Sanabria Díaz ◽  
Maria C. A. Texeira da Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Response Surface ◽  
Response Surface Method ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Material Behavior ◽  
Nonlinear Material ◽  
State Function ◽  
Surface Method ◽  
Highly Nonlinear

<p>The Response Surface Method (RSM) has become an essential tool to solve structural reliability problems due to its accuracy, efficacy, and facility for coupling with Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis (NLFEA). In this paper, some strategies to improve the RSM efficacy without compromising its accuracy are tested. Initially, each strategy is implemented to assess the safety level of a highly nonlinear explicit limit state function. The strategy with the best results is then identified and used to carry out a reliability analysis of a prestressed concrete bridge, considering the nonlinear material behavior through NLFEA simulation. The calculated value of &#120573; is compared with the target value established in Eurocode for ULS. The results showed how RSM can be a practical methodology and how the improvements presented can reduce the computational cost of a traditional RSM giving a good alternative to simulation methods such as Monte Carlo.</p>

Evaluation of the Effect of Yield to Tensile (Y/T) Ratio on the Structural Integrity of Offshore Pipeline by Limit State Design Approach

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gianluca Mannucci ◽  
Giuliano Malatesta ◽  
Giuseppe Demofonti ◽  
Marco Tivelli ◽  
Hector Quintanilla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Minor Effect ◽  
Offshore Pipelines ◽  
Limit State Design ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Probabilistic Failure Analysis ◽  
Failure Probabilities

Nowadays specifications require strict Yield to Tensile ratio limitation, nevertheless a fully accepted engineering assessment of its influence on pipeline integrity is still lacking. Probabilistic analysis based on structural reliability approach (Limit State Design, LSD) aimed at quantifying the yield to tensile strength ratio (Y/T) influence on failure probabilities of offshore pipelines was made. In particular, Tenaris seamless pipe data were used as input for the probabilistic failure analysis. The LSD approach has been applied to two actual deepwater design cases that have been on purpose selected, and the most relevant failure modes have been considered. Main result of the work is that the quantitative effect of the Y/T ratio on failure probabilities of a deepwater pipeline resulted not so big as expected; it has a minor effect, especially when Y only governs failure modes.

Development of Ultimate Strength Evaluation Method for Piping Subjected to Seismic Loads

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hideo Machida ◽  
Hiromasa Chitose ◽  
Tatsuhiro Yamazaki
Keyword(s):  
Power Plants ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Seismic Loading ◽  
Earthquake Resistance ◽  
State Function ◽  
Limit State Function ◽  
Input Acceleration ◽  
Resistance Tests

This paper reports the results of the study on the failure modes and limit loads of piping in nuclear power plants subjected to cyclic seismic loading. By investigating the past fracture tests and earthquake resistance tests, it became clear that dominant failure mode of piping was fatigue, and the effect of ratchet strain was negligible. Until now, the stress generated with the acceleration of an earthquake was classified into the primary stress. However, the relationship between the input acceleration and the seismic response displacement of the pipe observed from earthquake resistance tests is non-linear, and increasing rate of displacement is lower than that of input acceleration in elastic-plastic stress condition. Therefore, the seismic loading can be treated as displacement controlled loading. To evaluate the reliability-based critical acceleration, a limit state function was defined taking the variations in the fatigue strength or some parameters into consideration. By using the limit state function, the reliability was evaluated for the typical piping of boiling water reactor (BWR) plants subjected to cyclic seismic loading, and a partial safety factors were calculated. Based on these results, a fatigue curve corresponding to the target reliability was proposed.

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