Reliability Analysis of Pipelines During Laying, Considering Ultimate Strength Under Combined Loads

1999 ◽  
Vol 122 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ragnar T. Igland ◽  
Torgeir Moan
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Wave Spectrum ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Minor Importance ◽  
Target Level ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
System Effect ◽  
Load Effect

Structural reliability methods are applied to establish a measure of safety for pipelines during laying, and especially to calibrate semi-probabilistic ultimate limit state criteria based on measures of uncertainty, method of reliability, and a given target level. Ultimate collapse of thick tubes under combined external pressure, tension, and bending loads are studied applying the finite element method. Nonlinear effects of large deformations, effects of initial ovality, residual stresses, strain-hardening, yield anisotropy, and loading paths were accounted for in the analysis. A set of interaction equations is proposed. Load effects in the pipelines during installation by the S-lay method are studied. The effects of uncertainties in yield stress, mass, stiffness of the stinger, response amplitude operator and peak period for the wave spectrum were accounted for in the analysis. The major factors affecting strain concentration due to concrete coating are taken into account. A combination of design point calculation and importance sampling procedure is used to calculate the probability of failure. The study includes calibration of partial safety factors for the design format selected. The most important random variable is the model uncertainty for bending capacity, while the uncertainty of the load effect has minor importance for the probability of failure. The system effect is taken into account considering the correlation along the pipeline. The probability of failure is referred both to the total laying period as well as a 3-h period demonstrating that the target level needs to be defined in view of the reference time period. [S0892-7219(00)01501-6]

scholarly journals Non-deterministic Approach for Reliability Evaluation of Steel Portal Frame

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (8) ◽  
pp. 1684-1697
Author(s):  
Hawraa Qasim Jebur ◽  
Salah Rohaima Al-Zaidee
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Axial Forces ◽  
Portal Frame ◽  
Ultimate Limit

In recent years, more researches on structural reliability theory and methods have been carried out. In this study, a portal steel frame is considered. The reliability analysis for the frame is represented by the probability of failure, P_f, and the reliability index, β, that can be predicted based on the failure of the girders and columns. The probability of failure can be estimated dependent on the probability density function of two random variables, namely Capacity R, and Demand Q. The Monte Carlo simulation approach has been employed to consider the uncertainty the parameters of R, and Q. Matlab functions have been adopted to generate pseudo-random number for considered parameters. Although the Monte Carlo method is active and is widely used in reliability research, it has a disadvantage which represented by the requirement of large sample sizes to estimate the small probabilities of failure. This is leading to computational cost and time. Therefore, an Approximated Monte Carlo simulation method has been adopted for this issue. In this study, four performances have been considered include the serviceability deflection limit state, ultimate limit state for girder, ultimate limit state for the columns, and elastic stability. As the portal frame is a statically indeterminate structure, therefore bending moments, and axial forces cannot be determined based on static alone. A finite element parametric model has been prepared using Abaqus to deal with this aspect. The statistical analysis for the results samples show that all response data have lognormal distribution except of elastic critical buckling load which has a normal distribution.

On the Application of Structural Reliability Analysis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Gudfinnur Sigurdsson
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Engineering ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Design Analysis ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Hull Girder ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Code Calibration ◽  
Calculated Probability

Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) is a useful tool in structural engineering. Uncertainty in input parameters and model uncertainties in the analysis predictions are explicitly modelled by random variables. With this methodology, the uncertainties involved are handled in a consistent and transparent way. Compared to a deterministic analysis, SRA provides improved insight in how the various uncertainties involved influence the results. The main results from SRA is the calculated probability of structural failure, but other useful results such as uncertainty importance factors and design points being the most likely combination of all variables at failure represent helpful information. The present paper illustrates some the features using SRA for two different types of application. The first application is the use of SRA as a tool for code calibration and the second shows the application of SRA to a problem where common practice is likely to be rather conservative and therefore leading to unacceptable results, but where the degree of conservatism is not known. Two examples are chosen to illustrate code calibration; i.e. hull girder ultimate limit state (ULS) for tankers and ULS for mooring design in the ULS for floating offshore vessels. Code calibration involves both SRA and design analysis following the code. It is shown how the design analysis can be modified in order to better reflect a chosen target reliability level across a selected set of test cases representative for what the code should cover. Fatigue of subsea wellhead systems is selected as an example of a special case when application of existing rules may lead to unsatisfactory results which are likely to be rather conservative. It is shown how results can be presented in terms of the accumulated probability of fatigue failure as a function of time. This may be a more suitable basis for decision making than a calculated fatigue life from a standard analysis. It is also illustrated how importance factors from the SRA can be used as guidance on how to prioritize effort in order to improve prediction of the fatigue damage. The present paper is not intended to be detailed in all input and analysis methodology, but draw the attention towards the possibilities and benefits of applying SRA in structural engineering, where the examples are used to illustrate this potential.

scholarly journals Reliability of Buried Pipes in Heterogeneous Soil Subjected to Seismic Loads

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 6708-6713
Author(s):  
H. Benzeguir ◽  
S. M. Elachachi ◽  
D. Nedjar ◽  
M. Bensafi
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Longitudinal Direction ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Buried Pipe ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Buried Pipes

Dysfunctions and failures of buried pipe networks, like sewer networks, are studied in this paper from the point of view of structural reliability and heterogeneity of geotechnical conditions in the longitudinal direction. Combined soil spatial variability and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) induce stresses and displacements. A model has been developed within the frame of geostatistics and a mechanical description of the soil–structure interaction of a set of buried pipes with connections resting on the soil by a two-parameter model (Pasternak model). Structural reliability analysis is performed considering two limit states: Serviceability Limit State (SLS), related to large "counter slope" in a given pipe, and Ultimate Limit State (ULS), corresponding to bending moment.

Pipeline Remaining Life Estimation Based on Concepts of Structural Reliability and Bayesian Inference

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helio da Cunha Bisaggio ◽  
Theodoro Antoun Netto
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Operational Parameters ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Life Estimation ◽  
Predicted Probability ◽  
Operational Life ◽  
Corrosion Defects ◽  
State Functions

In this paper, structural reliability concepts are used in conjunction with DNV Recommended Practice RP-F101 [1] formulation to establish the limit state functions of corroded pipes. The model takes into account the natural spread of material properties, geometric and operational parameters, and the uncertainties associated with the sizing of eventual corrosion defects to determine the probability of failure at a given time. Bayesian and reliability concepts are used to estimate the evolution of a pre-defined distribution of defects obtained, for instance, from an inspection campaign. By comparing the predicted probability of failure with the reliability acceptance criteria the operator can schedule defect repairs and establish inspection intervals with more confidence. Thus, a simple method to predict the probability of failure of a corroded pipeline along its operational life is proposed to provide the basis to develop a risk based maintenance strategy.

Reliability-Based Design Criterion for TLP Tendons

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Barranco Cicilia ◽  
Edison Castro Prates de Lima ◽  
Lui´s Volnei Sudati Sagrilo
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Design Criterion ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Extreme Response ◽  
Load Effects ◽  
Partial Safety Factors ◽  
State Models

This paper presents a Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) criterion applied to the design of Tension Leg Platform (TLP) tendons in their intact condition. The design criterion considers the Ultimate Limit State (ULS) of any tendon section along its whole length taking into account both dynamic interactions of load effects and the statistics of its associated extreme response. The partial safety factors are calibrated through a long-term reliability-based methodology for the storm environmental conditions, like hurricanes and winter storms, in deep waters of the Campeche Bay, Mexico. In the reliability analysis, the uncertainties in the definition of load effects and analytic limit state models for calculation of tendon strength and randomness of material properties are included. The results show that the partial safety factors reflect both uncertainty content and the importance of the random variables in structural reliability analysis. When tendons are designed according to the developed LRFD criterion, a less scattered variation of reliability indexes is obtained for different tendon sections across a single or various TLP designs.

Probabilistic framework for the assessment of the flexural design of concrete sleepers

2019 ◽  
Vol 234 (7) ◽  
pp. 691-701 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro E Canga Ruiz ◽  
J Riley Edwards ◽  
Yu Qian ◽  
Marcus S Dersch
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sections ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Light Rail ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Current Design

An extensive study of the flexural performance of monoblock prestressed concrete sleepers in a light rail system was conducted as part of a research program funded by the Federal Transit Administration. Five consecutive sleepers deployed on the track were instrumented with strain gauges at their critical design cross-sections (center and rail seats) to obtain relevant flexural information during an uninterrupted period of 14 months. Results were compared with the projected design capacities obtained from the application of current design standards, resulting in glaring differences. The current design methodologies were deemed insufficient for the development of optimal design solutions for light rail applications. Furthermore, structural reliability analysis is employed to study the flexural capacity of the sleeper design. A capacity model based on the material and geometric properties of the sleeper design was developed. The demand model was derived from the field flexural data of over 27,000 train passes, fitting this information to predefined probability distributions. Four limit-state functions were defined to represent the typical flexural failure modes. The probability of failure was calculated using first-order reliability method, second-order reliability method, and Monte Carlo simulation. Ultimately, the analysis yielded consistent results for the three methods, showing largely low probability of failure at both design cross-sections under the studied demand level. In conclusion, the sleeper's capacity was higher than the existing field demands, indicating an overly conservative design approach.

Time-Domain Investigation of a Semisubmersible in Rogue Waves

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gu¨nther F. Clauss ◽  
Christian Schmittner ◽  
Katja Stutz
Keyword(s):  
Time Domain ◽  
Rogue Wave ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Rogue Waves ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Large Wave ◽  
Safety Standards ◽  
Design Wave Height ◽  
Present Design

Heave, pitch and roll motions as well as airgap are key characteristics of semisubmersibles in extreme seas which are defined by Ultimate Limit State design conditions (ULS) with a specified 100-year design wave height Hs and peak period Tp. The increasing number of reported rogue waves with unexpected large wave heights (Hmax/Hs > 2), crest heights (ζmax//Hmax > 0.6), wave steepness and group patterns (e.g. Three Sisters) may suggest a reconsideration of design codes by implementing an Accidental Limit State (ALS) with a return period of 104 years. For investigating the consequences of specific extreme sea conditions this paper analyses the seakeeping behaviour of a semisubmersible in a reported rogue wave, the Draupner New Year Wave embedded in irregular sea states. The numerical time-domain invegstigation using a panel method and potential theory is compared to frequency-domain results. In particular, the characteristics of the embedded rogue wave is varied to analyse the dynamic response of the semisubmersible in extreme wave sequences For validation, the selected sea condition is generated in a physical wave tank, and the sea-keeping behaviour of the semisubmersible is evaluated at model scale. In conclusion, the results deomstrate the consequences of rogue wave impacts, with respect to the relevance of present design methods and safety standards.

Reliability Studies on Timber Data from Nigerian Grown Iroko Tree (Chlorophora excelsa) as Bridge Beam Material

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 17-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.I. Aguwa ◽  
S. Sadiku
Keyword(s):  
Compressive Strength ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Strength Properties ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Analysis And Design ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Bridge Beams

This paper provides the results of structural reliability analysis carried out on the data of Nigerian grown Iroko tree (Chlorophora excelsa), to ascertain its structural performance as timber bridge beams. Five pieces of 50mm x 75mm x 3600mm of Nigerian grown Iroko hardwood were bought, seasoned naturally and 200 pieces of samples were prepared for determination of their strength properties, (which include bending strength parallel to grain, tensile strength parallel to grain, compressive strength parallel to grain, compressive strength perpendicular to grain and shear strength parallel to grain) at a moisture content of 18%, in accordance with the British Standard BS 373 of 1957. Statistical analysis was carried out using the strength properties for determination of mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variations, confidence limits and Chi-Square goodness of fits. Structural analysis and design of a timber bridge beam using the determined data from the Nigerian grown Iroko timber, in accordance with BS 5268 were carried out under the Ultimate Limit State of loading (ULSL). Reliability analysis was carried out to ascertain its level of safety using First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). Sensitivity analysis was also carried out by varying the depth of beam, imposed live load, breadth of the beam, unit weight of the Iroko timber, span of the beam as well as the end bearing length. The result revealed that the Nigerian grown Iroko timber is a satisfactory structural material for timber bridge beams at depth of 400mm, breadth of 150mm and span of 5000mm under the ULSL. The probabilities of failure of the Nigerian grown Iroko timber bridge beam in bending, shear, compression and deflection are respectively, under the specified conditions of loading.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Design and Uncertainty Quantification of the Structure of a Monopile Offshore Wind Turbine

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abraham Nispel ◽  
Stephen Ekwaro-Osire ◽  
João Paulo Dias ◽  
Americo Cunha
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Response ◽  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Design Criterion ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Offshore Wind Turbine ◽  
Model Input ◽  
Input Parameters

Abstract Despite the increasing demand for offshore energy, structural components of offshore wind turbines (OWT), such as the tower and foundation, are considered the most critical parts of the turbine. In fact, uncertainties regarding load conditions, soil and structural properties highly undermine the OWT structural reliability. In this scenario, in order to obtain more accurate results, rigorous probabilistic analyses are necessary. In this study, a probabilistic analysis of the dynamic response of a monopile OWT is conducted by using a systematic uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework to deal with the uncertainty assessment of the model input parameters. The proposed dynamic model computes the dynamic response of the turbine due to wind and waves loads on the monopile structure utilizing a simple cantilever beam analytical model. The distributions of the model input parameters are determined using (1) nonparametric statistics for a large dataset, and (2) the maximum entropy principle for a small dataset. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to propagate the uncertainties of the model inputs and to determine the system reliability expressed in terms of their probability of failure for the serviceability limit state design criterion. Finally, to demonstrate the shortcomings of traditional approaches that assume standard distributions to model uncertainties, a UQ approach modeling the uncertainties of the parameters using normal distributions is contrasted with our framework. From the results, significant differences between the distribution shape and values of the probability of failure can be observed; thus, it demonstrates the importance of developing probabilistic frameworks with systematic UQ to have more realistic approximations of the reliability of the OWT structure.

Prediction of Fracture Failure of Steel Pipes With Sharp Corrosion Pits Using Time-Dependent Reliability Method With Lognormal Process

2019 ◽  
Vol 141 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoyang Fu ◽  
Wei Yang ◽  
Wenni Deng ◽  
Chun-Qing Li ◽  
Sujeeva Setunge
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Toughness ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Considerable Effect ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Pipe Failure ◽  
Load Effect ◽  
Steel Pipes ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Corrosion Pits

This paper presents a reliability-based methodology for assessing fracture failures of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits. Based on newly developed models of elastic fracture toughness, the simple criterion of stress intensity factor (SIF) is used to establish the limit state functions for pipes with sharp corrosion pits in the longitudinal and circumferential directions. A stochastic model of load effect is developed and a time-dependent reliability method based on first passage probability for nonstationary lognormal processes is employed to quantify the probability of failure and predict the remaining service life. After applying the methodology to a case study, sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the most influential variables on the probability of failure. It is found in the paper that the correlation coefficient has a considerable effect on probability of failure of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits and that the larger the mode I fracture toughness is, the smaller the probability of pipe failure is.

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