Remaining Useful Life Estimation and Prognostication of SAC305 PCB's for Dynamic Conditions of Temperature and Vibration Loads

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradeep Lall ◽  
Tony Thomas ◽  
Ken Blecker
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sac305 Solder ◽  
Feature Vectors ◽  
Useful Life

Abstract This study focuses on the feature vector identification and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation of SAC305 solder alloy PCB's of two different configurations during varying conditions of temperature and vibration. The feature vectors are identified using the strain signals acquired from four symmetrical locations of the PCB at regular intervals during vibration. Two different types of experiments are employed to characterize the PCB's dynamic changes with varying temperature and acceleration levels. The strain signals acquired during each of these experiments are compared based on both time and frequency domain characteristics. Different statistical and frequency-based techniques were used to identify the strain signal variations with changes in the environment and loading conditions. The feature vectors in predicting failure at a constant working temperature and load were identified, and as an extension to this work, the effectiveness of the feature vectors during varying conditions of temperature and acceleration levels are investigated. The remaining Useful Life of the packages was estimated using a deep learning approach based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network. This technique can identify the underlying patterns in multivariate time series data that can predict the packages' life. The autocorrelation function's residuals were used as the multivariate time series data in conjunction with the LSTM deep learning technique to forecast the packages' life at different varying temperatures and acceleration levels during vibration.

scholarly journals Remaining Useful Life Estimation from Event Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahbubul Alam ◽  
Laleh Jalali ◽  
Mahbubul Alam ◽  
Ahmed Farahat ◽  
Chetan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sequential Data ◽  
Event Data ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Event Based

Abstract—Prognostics aims to predict the degradation of equipment by estimating their remaining useful life (RUL) and/or the failure probability within a specific time horizon. The high demand of equipment prognostics in the industry have propelled researchers to develop robust and efficient prognostics techniques. Among data driven techniques for prognostics, machine learning and deep learning (DL) based techniques, particularly Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have gained significant attention due to their ability of effectively representing the degradation progress by employing dynamic temporal behaviors. RNNs are well known for handling sequential data, especially continuous time series sequential data where the data follows certain pattern. Such data is usually obtained from sensors attached to the equipment. However, in many scenarios sensor data is not readily available and often very tedious to acquire. Conversely, event data is more common and can easily be obtained from the error logs saved by the equipment and transmitted to a backend for further processing. Nevertheless, performing prognostics using event data is substantially more difficult than that of the sensor data due to the unique nature of event data. Though event data is sequential, it differs from other seminal sequential data such as time series and natural language in the following manner, i) unlike time series data, events may appear at any time, i.e., the appearance of events lacks periodicity; ii) unlike natural languages, event data do not follow any specific linguistic rule. Additionally, there may be a significant variability in the event types appearing within the same sequence.  Therefore, this paper proposes an RUL estimation framework to effectively handle the intricate and novel event data. The proposed framework takes discrete events generated by an equipment (e.g., type, time, etc.) as input, and generates for each new event an estimate of the remaining operating cycles in the life of a given component. To evaluate the efficacy of our proposed method, we conduct extensive experiments using benchmark datasets such as the CMAPSS data after converting the time-series data in these datasets to sequential event data. The event data conversion is carried out by careful exploration and application of appropriate transformation techniques to the time series. To the best of our knowledge this is the first time such event-based RUL estimation problem is introduced to the community. Furthermore, we propose several deep learning and machine learning based solution for the event-based RUL estimation problem. Our results suggest that the deep learning models, 1D-CNN, LSTM, and multi-head attention show similar RMSE, MAE and Score performance. Foreseeably, the XGBoost model achieve lower performance compared to the deep learning models since the XGBoost model fails to capture ordering information from the sequence of events. 

scholarly journals Remaining Useful Life Prediction Using Temporal Convolution with Attention

AI ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-70
Author(s):  
Wei Ming Tan ◽  
T. Hui Teo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Form Complex ◽  
Useful Life

Prognostic techniques attempt to predict the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a subsystem or a component. Such techniques often use sensor data which are periodically measured and recorded into a time series data set. Such multivariate data sets form complex and non-linear inter-dependencies through recorded time steps and between sensors. Many current existing algorithms for prognostic purposes starts to explore Deep Neural Network (DNN) and its effectiveness in the field. Although Deep Learning (DL) techniques outperform the traditional prognostic algorithms, the networks are generally complex to deploy or train. This paper proposes a Multi-variable Time Series (MTS) focused approach to prognostics that implements a lightweight Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with attention mechanism. The convolution filters work to extract the abstract temporal patterns from the multiple time series, while the attention mechanisms review the information across the time axis and select the relevant information. The results suggest that the proposed method not only produces a superior accuracy of RUL estimation but it also trains many folds faster than the reported works. The superiority of deploying the network is also demonstrated on a lightweight hardware platform by not just being much compact, but also more efficient for the resource restricted environment.

scholarly journals A Time-Series Data Generation Method to Predict Remaining Useful Life

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 1115
Author(s):  
Gilseung Ahn ◽  
Hyungseok Yun ◽  
Sun Hur ◽  
Si-Yeong Lim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Generation Model ◽  
Data Generation ◽  
Training Time ◽  
Symbolic Aggregate Approximation ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Occurrence Patterns

Accurate predictions of remaining useful life (RUL) of equipment using machine learning (ML) or deep learning (DL) models that collect data until the equipment fails are crucial for maintenance scheduling. Because the data are unavailable until the equipment fails, collecting sufficient data to train a model without overfitting can be challenging. Here, we propose a method of generating time-series data for RUL models to resolve the problems posed by insufficient data. The proposed method converts every training time series into a sequence of alphabetical strings by symbolic aggregate approximation and identifies occurrence patterns in the converted sequences. The method then generates a new sequence and inversely transforms it to a new time series. Experiments with various RUL prediction datasets and ML/DL models verified that the proposed data-generation model can help avoid overfitting in RUL prediction model.

scholarly journals Implementation of IoT Framework with Data Analysis Using Deep Learning Methods for Occupancy Prediction in a Building

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Eric Hitimana ◽  
Gaurav Bajpai ◽  
Richard Musabe ◽  
Louis Sibomana ◽  
Jayavel Kayalvizhi
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Feed Forward Network

Many countries worldwide face challenges in controlling building incidence prevention measures for fire disasters. The most critical issues are the localization, identification, detection of the room occupant. Internet of Things (IoT) along with machine learning proved the increase of the smartness of the building by providing real-time data acquisition using sensors and actuators for prediction mechanisms. This paper proposes the implementation of an IoT framework to capture indoor environmental parameters for occupancy multivariate time-series data. The application of the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Deep Learning algorithm is used to infer the knowledge of the presence of human beings. An experiment is conducted in an office room using multivariate time-series as predictors in the regression forecasting problem. The results obtained demonstrate that with the developed system it is possible to obtain, process, and store environmental information. The information collected was applied to the LSTM algorithm and compared with other machine learning algorithms. The compared algorithms are Support Vector Machine, Naïve Bayes Network, and Multilayer Perceptron Feed-Forward Network. The outcomes based on the parametric calibrations demonstrate that LSTM performs better in the context of the proposed application.

Prognostics and RUL Estimations of SAC305, SAC105 and SnAg Solders Under Temperature and Vibration Using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Deep Learning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradeep Lall ◽  
Tony Thomas ◽  
Ken Blecker
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Rectangular Pattern ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Abstract Prognostics and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimations of complex systems are essential to operational safety, increased efficiency, and help to schedule maintenance proactively. Modeling the remaining useful life of a system with many complexities is possible with the rapid development in the field of deep learning as a computational technique for failure prediction. Deep learning can adapt to multivariate parameters complex and nonlinear behavior, which is difficult using traditional time-series models for forecasting and prediction purposes. In this paper, a deep learning approach based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network is used to predict the remaining useful life of the PCB at different conditions of temperature and vibration. This technique can identify the different underlying patterns in the time series that can predict the RUL. This study involves feature vector identification and RUL estimations for SAC305, SAC105, and Tin Lead solder PCBs under different vibration levels and temperature conditions. The acceleration levels of vibration are fixed at 5g and 10g, while the temperature levels are 55°C and 100°C. The test board is a multilayer FR4 configuration with JEDEC standard dimensions consists of twelve packages arranged in a rectangular pattern. Strain signals are acquired from the backside of the PCB at symmetric locations to identify the failure of all the packages during vibration. The strain signals are resistance values that are acquired simultaneously during the experiment until the failure of most of the packages on the board. The feature vectors are identified from statistical analysis on the strain signals frequency and instantaneous frequency components. The principal component analysis is used as a data reduction technique to identify the different patterns produced from the four strain signals with failures of the packages during vibration. LSTM deep learning method is used to model the RUL of the packages at different individual operating conditions of vibration for all three solder materials involved in this study. A combined model for RUL prediction for a material that can take care of the changes in the operating conditions is also modeled for each material.

scholarly journals Ranking Information Extracted from Uncertainty Quantification of the Prediction of a Deep Learning Model on Medical Time Series Data

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 1078
Author(s):  
Ruxandra Stoean ◽  
Catalin Stoean ◽  
Miguel Atencia ◽  
Roberto Rodríguez-Labrada ◽  
Gonzalo Joya
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real World Problem ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates

Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models is especially important for the medical applications of this complex and successful type of neural architectures. One popular technique is Monte Carlo dropout that gives a sample output for a record, which can be measured statistically in terms of average probability and variance for each diagnostic class of the problem. The current paper puts forward a convolutional–long short-term memory network model with a Monte Carlo dropout layer for obtaining information regarding the model uncertainty for saccadic records of all patients. These are next used in assessing the uncertainty of the learning model at the higher level of sets of multiple records (i.e., registers) that are gathered for one patient case by the examining physician towards an accurate diagnosis. Means and standard deviations are additionally calculated for the Monte Carlo uncertainty estimates of groups of predictions. These serve as a new collection where a random forest model can perform both classification and ranking of variable importance. The approach is validated on a real-world problem of classifying electrooculography time series for an early detection of spinocerebellar ataxia 2 and reaches an accuracy of 88.59% in distinguishing between the three classes of patients.

Condition Monitoring of Equipment in Oil Wells using Deep Learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 2050001
Author(s):  
Yadigar N. Imamverdiyev ◽  
Fargana J. Abdullayeva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Single Layer ◽  
Oil Wells ◽  
Fault Prediction ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Oil Well ◽  
Data Set

In this paper, a fault prediction method for oil well equipment based on the analysis of time series data obtained from multiple sensors is proposed. The proposed method is based on deep learning (DL). For this purpose, comparative analysis of single-layer long short-term memory (LSTM) with the convolutional neural network (CNN) and stacked LSTM methods is provided. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method, some experiments are conducted on the real data set obtained from eight sensors installed in oil wells. In this paper, compared to the single-layer LSTM model, the CNN and stacked LSTM predicted the faulty time series with a minimal loss.

scholarly journals Applying Deep Learning Methods on Time-Series Data for Forecasting COVID-19 in Egypt, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Nahla F. Omran ◽  
Sara F. Abd-el Ghany ◽  
Hager Saleh ◽  
Abdelmgeid A. Ali ◽  
Abdu Gumaei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Handling Time ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Death Cases

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is regarded as one of the most imminent disease outbreaks which threaten public health on various levels worldwide. Because of the unpredictable outbreak nature and the virus’s pandemic intensity, people are experiencing depression, anxiety, and other strain reactions. The response to prevent and control the new coronavirus pneumonia has reached a crucial point. Therefore, it is essential—for safety and prevention purposes—to promptly predict and forecast the virus outbreak in the course of this troublesome time to have control over its mortality. Recently, deep learning models are playing essential roles in handling time-series data in different applications. This paper presents a comparative study of two deep learning methods to forecast the confirmed cases and death cases of COVID-19. Long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) have been applied on time-series data in three countries: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, from 1/5/2020 to 6/12/2020. The results show that LSTM has achieved the best performance in confirmed cases in the three countries, and GRU has achieved the best performance in death cases in Egypt and Kuwait.

scholarly journals Multivariate Temporal Convolutional Network: A Deep Neural Networks Approach for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Electronics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renzhuo Wan ◽  
Shuping Mei ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
Min Liu ◽  
Fan Yang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Asymmetric Structure ◽  
Convolutional Network

Multivariable time series prediction has been widely studied in power energy, aerology, meteorology, finance, transportation, etc. Traditional modeling methods have complex patterns and are inefficient to capture long-term multivariate dependencies of data for desired forecasting accuracy. To address such concerns, various deep learning models based on Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) methods are proposed. To improve the prediction accuracy and minimize the multivariate time series data dependence for aperiodic data, in this article, Beijing PM2.5 and ISO-NE Dataset are analyzed by a novel Multivariate Temporal Convolution Network (M-TCN) model. In this model, multi-variable time series prediction is constructed as a sequence-to-sequence scenario for non-periodic datasets. The multichannel residual blocks in parallel with asymmetric structure based on deep convolution neural network is proposed. The results are compared with rich competitive algorithms of long short term memory (LSTM), convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM), Temporal Convolution Network (TCN) and Multivariate Attention LSTM-FCN (MALSTM-FCN), which indicate significant improvement of prediction accuracy, robust and generalization of our model.

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