Mitigation options to reduce peak air temperature and air-conditioning demand in the context of a warming climate for a tropical coastal city
Abstract The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts the cooling requirement for buildings globally increases by three-fold by 2050 without additional policy interventions. The impacts of these increases for energy demand for human comfort are more pronounced in the Caribbean, where building energy demands often exceed 50% of the total electricity. This study presents mid-of century and end of century cooling demand projections along with demand alleviation measures for San Juan Metropolitan Area of the Caribbean Island of Puerto Rico using a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Building Energy Model (BEM) forced by bias-corrected Community Earth Systems Model (CESM1) global simulations. The World Urban Database Access Portal Tool (WUDAPT) Land Class Zones (LCZ) is used for urban classes and the MODIS land covers land use is depicted for all-natural classes. Energy mitigation options explored include the integration of solar power in buildings, the use of white roofs, and high-efficiency HVAC systems. The impact of climate change is simulated to increase minimum temperatures at the same rate as maximum temperatures. However, the maximum temperatures are projected to rise by 1-1.5C and 2C for mid and end-of-century, respectively, increasing peak AC demand by 12.5% and 25%, correspondingly. However, the explored mitigation options surpass both increases in temperature and AC demand. The AC demand reduction potential with energy mitigation options for 2050 and 2100 decreases the need by 13% and 1.5% with the historical periods.