Optimization Or Bayesian Strategy? Performance of the Bhattacharyya Distance in Different Algorithms of Stochastic Model Updating

Author(s):  
Sifeng Bi ◽  
Michael Beer ◽  
Jingrui Zhang ◽  
Lechang Yang ◽  
Kui He

Abstract The Bhattacharyya distance has been developed as a comprehensive uncertainty quantification metric by capturing multiple uncertainty sources from both numerical predictions and experimental measurements. This work pursues a further investigation of the performance of the Bhattacharyya distance in different methodologies for stochastic model updating. The first procedure is the Bayesian model updating where the Bhattacharyya distance is utilized to define an approximate likelihood function and the transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is employed to obtain the posterior distribution of the parameters. In the second model updating procedure, the Bhattacharyya distance is utilized to construct the objective function of an optimization problem. The objective function is defined as the Bhattacharyya distance between the samples of numerical prediction and the samples of the target data. The comparison study is performed on a four degree-of-freedoms mass-spring system. A challenging task is raised in this example by assigning different distributions to the parameters with imprecise distribution coefficients. This requires the stochastic updating procedure to calibrate not the parameters themselves, but their distribution properties. The performance of the Bhattacharyya distance in both Bayesian updating and optimization-based updating procedures are presented and compared. The results demonstrate the Bhattacharyya distance as a comprehensive and universal uncertainty quantification metric in stochastic model updating.

Author(s):  
Sifeng Bi ◽  
Michael Beer

AbstractThis chapter presents the technique route of model updating in the presence of imprecise probabilities. The emphasis is put on the inevitable uncertainties, in both numerical simulations and experimental measurements, leading the updating methodology to be significantly extended from deterministic sense to stochastic sense. This extension requires that the model parameters are not regarded as unknown-but-fixed values, but random variables with uncertain distributions, i.e. the imprecise probabilities. The final objective of stochastic model updating is no longer a single model prediction with maximal fidelity to a single experiment, but rather the calibrated distribution coefficients allowing the model predictions to fit with the experimental measurements in a probabilistic point of view. The involvement of uncertainty within a Bayesian updating framework is achieved by developing a novel uncertainty quantification metric, i.e. the Bhattacharyya distance, instead of the typical Euclidian distance. The overall approach is demonstrated by solving the model updating sub-problem of the NASA uncertainty quantification challenge. The demonstration provides a clear comparison between performances of the Euclidian distance and the Bhattacharyya distance, and thus promotes a better understanding of the principle of stochastic model updating, as no longer to determine the unknown-but-fixed parameters, but rather to reduce the uncertainty bounds of the model prediction and meanwhile to guarantee the existing experimental data to be still enveloped within the updated uncertainty space.


2003 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.W. Zehn ◽  
A. Saitov

Owing to manufacturing composite materials and others show considerable uncertainties in wall-thickness, fluctuations in material properties and other parameter, which are spatially distributed over the structure. These uncertainties have a random character and can therefore not being reduced by some kind of mesh refinement within the FE model. What we need is a suitable statistical approach to describe the parameter changing that holds for the statistics of the process and the correlation between the parameter spatially distributed over the structure. The paper presents a solution for a spatial correlated simulation of parameter distribution owing to the manufacturing process or other causes that is suitable to be included in the FEA. The parameter estimation methods used in updating algorithms for FE-models, depend on the choice of a priori to be determined weighting matrices. The weighting matrices are in most cases assumed by engineering judgement of the analyst carrying out the updating procedure and his assessment of uncertainty of parameters chosen and measured and calculated results. With the statistical description of the spatial distribution at hand, we can calculate a parameter weighting matrix for a Baysian estimator. Furthermore, it can be shown in principle that with model updating it is possible to improve the probabilistic parameter distribution itself.


Author(s):  
Michael Kawrza ◽  
Thomas Furtmüller ◽  
Christoph Adam ◽  
Roland Maderebner

AbstractIn this paper, the dynamic properties of a point-supported cross-laminated timber slab are studied in order to determine the elastic material parameters on this basis. A detailed experimental modal analysis of the slab with dimensions 16.0 m x 11.0 m is performed, and seven modes including the natural frequencies, damping ratios and mode shape components at 651 sensor positions are identified. The found mode shapes are complex due to environmental influences that occurred during the two-day measurement campaign. This error is corrected by eliminating these influences. A finite element model of the slab is presented, whose parameters in terms of material properties and boundary conditions are determined by a model updating procedure. Based on the modal properties of the seven experimentally identified modes, an accurate and robust parameter set is obtained, which can be used in further numerical studies of the considered CLT to check serviceability limit criteria.


Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 3197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhouquan Feng ◽  
Yang Lin ◽  
Wenzan Wang ◽  
Xugang Hua ◽  
Zhengqing Chen

A novel probabilistic approach for model updating based on approximate Bayesian computation with subset simulation (ABC-SubSim) is proposed for damage assessment of structures using modal data. The ABC-SubSim is a likelihood-free Bayesian approach in which the explicit expression of likelihood function is avoided and the posterior samples of model parameters are obtained using the technique of subset simulation. The novel contributions of this paper are on three fronts: one is the introduction of some new stopping criteria to find an appropriate tolerance level for the metric used in the ABC-SubSim; the second one is the employment of a hybrid optimization scheme to find finer optimal values for the model parameters; and the last one is the adoption of an iterative approach to determine the optimal weighting factors related to the residuals of modal frequency and mode shape in the metric. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated using three illustrative examples.


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