Decision-Making Under Uncertainty for a Digital Thread-Enabled Design Process

2021 ◽  
Vol 143 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Singh ◽  
Karen E. Willcox

Abstract Digital thread is a data-driven architecture that links together information from all stages of the product lifecycle. Despite increasing application in manufacturing, maintenance/operations, and design related tasks, a principled formulation of analyzing the decision-making problem under uncertainty for the digital thread remains absent. The contribution of this article is to present a formulation using Bayesian statistics and decision theory. First, we address how uncertainty propagates in the product lifecycle and how the digital thread evolves based on the decisions we make and the data we collect. By using these mechanics, we explore designing over multiple product generations or iterations and provide an algorithm to solve the underlying multistage decision problem. We illustrate our method on an example structural design problem where our method can quantify and optimize different types and sequences of decisions, ranging from experimentation, manufacturing, and sensor placement/selection, to minimize total accrued costs.

Author(s):  
Layla Angria S ◽  
Yunita Dwi Sari ◽  
Muhammad Zarlis ◽  
Tulus

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
pp. 1597-1614
Author(s):  
Kalyan Sinha ◽  
Pinaki Majumdar

The notion of simple bipolar quadripartition is presented valuable neutrosophic set. Some basic set theoretic terminologies, operations and properties of bipolar quadripartitioned single valued neutrosophic set are given here. Also different types of distances, similarity measures and entropy measure are discussed. Finally a decision making problem using the similarity measure technique of bipolar quadripartitioned single valued neutrosophic sets has been solved.


Utilitas ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
SETH LAZAR

How should deontologists approach decision-making under uncertainty, for an iterated decision problem? In this article I explore the shortcomings of a simple expected value approach, using a novel example to raise questions about attitudes to risk, the moral significance of tiny probabilities, the independent moral reasons against imposing risks, the morality of sunk costs, and the role of agent-relativity in iterated decision problems.


2015 ◽  
Vol 734 ◽  
pp. 459-462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sen Zeng ◽  
Guo Qi Ni ◽  
Miao Miao Fan ◽  
Lin Zhang ◽  
Yuan Hua He

Quality of Service (QoS) aware-based service selection problem is a multi-attribute decision making problem. In order to solve service selection problem with QoS indicators describe by different types of data, a service selection algorithm based on heterogeneous QoS model and synthetic weight (SSAoHS) is proposed. SSAoHS introduces real number, interval number and linguistic data to describe different QoS attributes, considers the subjective and objective weights wholly, and makes the final decision referring to the expectation and variance of QoS attributes after computing the synthetic scores. SSAoHS expands the traditional service selection and it is efficient and effective.


Author(s):  
Kartick Mohanta ◽  
Arindam Dey ◽  
Anita Pal

AbstractFuzzy set and neutrosophic set are two efficient tools to handle the uncertainties and vagueness of any real-world problems. Neutrosophic set is more capable than fuzzy set to deal the uncertainties of a real-life problem. This research paper introduces some new concept of single-valued neutrosophic graph (SVNG). We have also presented some different operations on SVNG such as rejection, symmetric difference, maximal product, and residue product with appropriate examples, and some of their important theorems are also described. Then, we have described the concept of total degree of a neutrosophic graph with some interesting examples. We have also presented an efficient approach to solve a decision-making problem using SVNG.


Comunicar ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (52) ◽  
pp. 29-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
María-Luisa Novo ◽  
Ángel Alsina ◽  
José-María Marbán ◽  
Ainhoa Berciano

The construction of a connective brain begins at the earliest ages of human development. However, knowledge about individual and collective brains provided so far by research has been rarely incorporated into Maths in Early Childhood classrooms. In spite of that, it is obvious that it is at these ages when the learning of mathematics acts as a nuclear element for decision- making, problem -solving, data- processing and the understanding of the world. From that perspective, this research aims to analyse the mathematics teaching-learning process at early ages based on connectionism, with the specific objectives being, on the one hand, to determine the features of mathematics practices which promote connections and, on the other hand, to identify different types of mathematics connections to enhance connective intelligence. The research was carried out over two consecutive academic years under an interpretative paradigm with a methodological approach combining Action Research and Grounded Theory. The results obtained allow the characterization of a prototype of a didactic sequence that promotes three types of mathematics connections for the development of connective intelligence in young children: conceptual, giving rise to links between mathematics concepts; teaching, linking mathematics concepts through an active methodology, and practical ones connecting maths with the environment. La construcción de un cerebro conectivo comienza en las edades más tempranas del desarrollo humano. Sin embargo, el conocimiento que ya se tiene sobre los cerebros individual y colectivo apenas se ha incorporado en el desarrollo del pensamiento matemático en Educación Infantil, donde comienzan a gestarse elementos clave para tomar decisiones, resolver problemas de la vida cotidiana, tratar con datos y comprender el entorno. Desde esta perspectiva la presente investigación marca como objetivo general analizar el proceso de enseñanza-aprendizaje de las matemáticas en Educación Infantil a partir del conexionismo, considerando como objetivos específicos, por un lado, determinar las características de una práctica matemática que promueva las conexiones y, por otro lado, identificar los distintos tipos de conexiones matemáticas para fomentar la inteligencia conectiva. La investigación se lleva a cabo a lo largo de dos años consecutivos bajo un paradigma interpretativo con un enfoque metodológico basado en el uso combinado de Investigación-Acción y Teoría Fundamentada. Los resultados han permitido concretar un prototipo de actividad o conjunto de actividades que, en forma de secuencia didáctica, promueve tres tipos de conexiones matemáticas para desarrollar la inteligencia conectiva en Educación Infantil: conceptuales, que producen nexos entre contenidos matemáticos diversos; docentes, que vinculan diversos conceptos matemáticos a través de una metodología activa y de vivenciar las experiencias matemáticas con otras materias; y prácticas, que relacionan las matemáticas con el entorno.


1970 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 369-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. G. Moore

All business is, to a greater or lesser extent, concerned with the taking of risk. This paper attempts to explain some of the main approaches that have been adopted in pursuing the concept of risk from a probabilistic viewpoint. The word ‘risk’ itself has been used fairly indiscriminately by writers, and thus gets given a number of different senses, but it has attained a clear and precise definition at various times and in different types of literature. Indeed we can distinguish three main avenues of development. The first is the pure economic concept, the second the actuarial approach, and the third the more recent linkage of risk analysis with the general approach to decision-making under uncertainty.


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